SW318

Social Work
Statistics
Slide 1
Sampling Distribution of the Mean Problem - 1
This question asks us to find the probability that a random sample of a certain size
drawn from the data set could have a mean of 45.38 or less.

In order to calculate a mean, the variable has to be ordinal or interval level variable.
If it is not, the answer will be incorrect application of a statistic. If the variable is
ordinal level, we will add a caution to a true answer to remind ourselves that not
everyone agrees with the convention of treating ordinal variables as interval.

Age is interval level so it satisfies the level of measurement requirement.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 2
Sampling Distribution of the Mean Problem - 2
The probability that a random sample has a specific mean is based on its
location within the sampling distribution of the means of all the possible
samples we could draw from the data set (just like a zscore for one case
in a sample).

The mean of the sampling distribution is the population mean, or the
mean of all cases in the data set.

Our problems compare the mean of one sample SPSS will draw (45.38) to
the population mean (46.58).
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 3
Sampling Distribution of the Mean Problem - 3
Since the distribution of sampling means is based on the normal
distribution, the correct probability for any specific mean value
assumes that the variable follows a normal distribution.

To verify that our data satisfies this assumption, we will also compute
the skewness and kurtosis of the distribution of all cases in the data
set.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 4
Computing mean, skewness, and kurtosis
To compute the mean, skewness, and
kurtosis, select

Descriptive Statistics > Descriptives

in SPSS.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 5
Descriptive statistics: selecting variable
First, move the variable age
to the Variables list box.
Second, click on the Options
button to select the statistics.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 6
Descriptive statistics: selecting statistics
First, mark the
check boxes for
Mean, Kurtosis,
and Skewness.
Second, click on the
Continue button to
close the options
window.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 7
Complete the request for the statistics
To complete the
request for the
statistics, click on
the OK button.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 8
The population mean
Since we are treating all of the cases in the data
set as the population in these problems, the
population mean is 46.58.

The population mean stated in the problem is
46.58, so our problem is true so far.

We will need the numeric value for the
population mean when we compute the
probability of the sample mean.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 9
Testing for normality
Obtaining accurate probabilities for the sampling distribution of
means assumes that the variable is normally distributed. The "age"
[age] satisfied the criteria for a normal distribution. The skewness of
the distribution (.454) was between -1.0 and +1.0 and the kurtosis
of the distribution (-.720) was between -1.0 and +1.0.

If we did not satisfy the requirements for a normal distribution, we
might still be able to compute a correct probability, using the Central
Limit Theorem. In this problem, we dont need the Central Limit
Theorem, but if we did, we would need to draw the sample and
compute the sample mean.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 10
Drawing a sample:
setting the seed or starting random number
To set a random number seed, go to

Transform > Random Number Seed

in SPSS.
Setting the random number seed tells
SPSS what number to start with when it
draws a random subset of cases.

If you do not use the same seed that I
did, you will not get the same sample of
cases, and your answers will probably
not match the problems.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 11
Drawing a sample:
entering the random seed number
To create a random process using a specific
number, 2527675 in this problem, as a
random number seed, click on Set seed to:
and type in the number you want.

When you click on OK, the seed will be set,
but you will get no feedback from SPSS
telling you that this has been done.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 12
Drawing a random sample:
selecting the cases to include
Now, we have to tell SPSS to
select 10% of the whole data
set as the sample.

Select the command:

Data > Select Cases

SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 13
Drawing a random sample:
specifying a random selection of cases
First, click on
the option
button Random
sample of cases.
Second, click on the
Sample button to specify
the size of the sample.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 14
Drawing a random sample:
specifying the size of the random sample
The problem calls for us to
draw a 10% random sample.

Type 10 in the text box in
front of the % symbol to
specify the size of the sample.

Then, click on the Continue
button to close the dialog box.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 15
Drawing a random sample:
completing the specifications
SPSS repeats our
request next to the
Sample button.
Click on the OK button
to complete the
sampling specifications
and draw the sample.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 16
Cases included in the sample
SPSS indicates which cases are
excluded from the sample by
drawing a diagonal line through
the case number, as shown for
case 1, 2, 3, etc.
The cases which are included in the
random sample drawn by SPSS do
not have a line across the case
number. CaseID 40 on row 11 is
included in the sample.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 17
The probability of a sample mean
The SPSS procedure One-Sample T Test computes
the probability of a sample mean from a population.

Select: Compare Means > One-Sample T Test

from the SPSS menus
Having drawn a 10% sample of the
cases in the data set, we can calculate
the statistics for the sample.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 18
Specifications for One-Sample T Test
First, move the variable
age to the list box for
Test Variable(s).
Second, type the population mean
that we found in the statistics for
all cases in the data set in the text
box for the Test Value.

This is the population mean we
found back on slide 8.
Third, click on
the OK button
to complete
the request.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 19
Output for One-Sample T Test
The number of cases in the 10% random
sample selected by SPSS was 61.

If we did not satisfy the skewness and
kurtosis criteria for normality, we would
compare the sample size to the Central
Limit Theorem minimum sample size to
see if we can satisfy the normality
assumption with the Central Limit
Theorem (sample has 50 or more cases).
The mean for the random
sample selected by SPSS
was 45.38.

This corresponds to the
sample mean the problem
asks us about.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 20
The probability of the sample mean
The probability associated
with a sample mean of
45.38 from a population
with a mean of 46.58 is
given by the Sig. (2-tailed)
cell in the one-sample test
table. This probability, or p-
value, is the probability that
the sample mean is larger
or smaller than the
population mean.

In our problems we are
interested in only one
direction, smaller or larger
as specified by the problem,
so we divide this sig value
by 2, 0.586 2 = 0.293.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 21
Answering the problem
The answer to the problem is true. The probability the a 10%
random sample drawn by SPSS could have a mean of 45.38
or smaller was 0.293.

The level of measurement was satisfied because the variable
was interval level.

The variable satisfied the normality assumption by having a
value for skewness and kurtosis between -1.0 and +1.0.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 22
Picturing the Sampling Distribution

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

15

10

5

0
42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51
Sample Means
S.D. = 2.19
Mean of Means= 46.58
Sample size = 61
Mean of this
sample: 45.38
Population Mean: 46.58
We calculated the p-value of
this part of the distribution.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 23
Restoring all cases to the data set - 1
When we have completed a
problem, we need to restore
all of the cases to the data
set before working the next
problem.

Select the command:

Data > Select Cases

SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 24
Restoring all cases to the data set - 2
First, click on the option
button All Cases.
Second, click on
the OK button.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 25
Restoring all cases to the data set - 3
All of the slash marks through
the case numbers have been
removed. Statistics will now be
calculated on all cases in the
data set.
SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 26
Steps in solving sampling distribution of
means problems - 1
The following is a guide to the decision process for answering
homework problems about sampling distributions of means:
Is the variable ordinal or
interval level?
Incorrect
application of
a statistic
Yes
No

Compute the mean, skewness, and kurtosis
for the population (all cases in the data set).

SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 27
Steps in solving sampling distribution of
means problems - 2
Yes
No
Assumption of normality
satisfied? (skew, kurtosis
between -1.0 and + 1.0)
No

Draw the random sample from
the data set and compute the
sample statistics

Sample size 50+
so Central Limit
Theorem applies?
Incorrect
application of
a statistic
Yes

Draw the random sample from
the data set and compute the
sample statistics

SW318
Social Work
Statistics
Slide 28
Steps in solving sampling distribution of
means problems - 3
Is the variable ordinal
level?
Yes
No

Divide the 2-tailed Sig. value in half to find
the one direction probability.

Statistical values for
population mean, sample
mean, and p-value correct?
False
Yes
No
True with caution
True