Foreign Policy

CHAPTER FOUR

Dr. Clayton Thyne

PS 235-001: World Politics
Spring 2009
Goldstein & Pevehouse,
International Relations, 8/e
Student notes version

Making Foreign Policy

Purpose:
Foreign policies (def):

Making Foreign Policy

Comparative foreign policy
Study of foreign policy in various states in order to
3 approaches:
How does size, wealth and dem FP decisions?
How do populations, natural resources and technology FP
decisions?
How does a states political culture and history FP
decisions?

Foreign policy outcomes result from multiple

forces at various levels of analysis.

Models of Decision Making

Rational model
Decision makers set goals, evaluate their relative
importance, calculate the costs and benefits of each
possible course of action, and then choose the one
with the highest benefits and lowest costs.
EUwar = Prvictory(Uvictory) (1-Prvictory)(Closing)

Role of uncertainty
Accepting of risk versus averse to risk

Models of Decision Making

Organizational process model

Government bargaining (bureaucratic) model

Individual Decision Makers

Study of individual decision making revolves around the
question of rationality.

Difficulties of oversimplification

We can
-

Individual Decision Makers

Beyond individual idiosyncrasies, individual decision
making diverges from the rational model in at least three
systematic ways:
1.

Decision makers suffer from

2.

Affective bias:

3.

Cognitive bias:

Individual Decision Makers

Two specific modifications of the rational model
of decision making have been proposed to
accommodate psychological realities.
Bounded rationality

Prospect theory

Estimates of Probabilities of Death From Various Causes

Cause

Subject Estimates

Statistical Estimates

Heart Disease

0.22

0.34

Cancer

0.18

0.23

Other Natural Causes

0.33

0.35

All Natural Causes

0.73

0.92

Accident

0.32

0.05

Homicide

0.10

0.01

Other Unnatural Causes

0.11

0.02

All Unnatural Causes

0.53

0.08

Group Psychology
Group dynamics can be a promoter of state interests but
they can also introduce new sources of irrationality into
the decision-making process.
Positive:

Negative:

Group psychology:
Groupthink (def):

Groups tend to be overly

Figure 4.3

Crisis Management
Crises (def):
Stress amplifies bias
Rules are often circumvented

Domestic Politics
Foreign policy is shaped not only by the internal
dynamics of individual and group decision
making but also by the states and societies
within which decision makers operate.

Bureaucracies
Bureaucracies:
Diplomats
Virtually all states maintain a diplomatic corps, or foreign service, of
diplomats in embassies in foreign capitals
Includes
Tension common between state leaders and foreign policy bureaucrats

Interagency tensions
Bureaucratic rivalry as an influence on foreign policy challenges the
notion of states as unitary actors in the international system.

Interest Groups
Interest groups (def):

Lobbying
The process of
Three important elements:
1.
2.
3.

The Military Industrial Complex

Def:

Response to the growing importance of technology

Encompasses a variety of constituencies, each of which has an
interest in military spending
Corporations, military officers, universities, and scientific institutes that
receive military research contracts
Revolving door problem:

PACS from the military industry

Public Opinion
Range of views on foreign policy issues held by the
citizens of a state
Has a greater influence on foreign policy in democracies
than in authoritarian governments

In democracies, public opinion generally has less effect

on foreign policy than on domestic policy.

Figure 4.4

Legislatures
Conduit through which interest groups and
public opinion can wield influence
Presidential systems; separate elections

Parliamentary systems; political parties are dominant