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Reliability measures
Objectives:
Learn how to quantify reliability of a system
Understand and learn how to compute the following measures
Reliability function
Expected life
Failure rate and hazard function
Reliability function
Assumption: New equipment
T=Failure time, random variable because we do
not know when a system will fail
Probability density function of failure time, fT(t).
Units: # of failures per unit time
Reliability function, R(t)= probability that system
will work properly at time t
Failure distribution function, FT(t)= probability
that a system will fail by time t
Notation
Probability density function, fT(t)
T random variable (in this case it is the
component life)
t value that the random variable assumes
fT(t)=limt0 P(t<T t+ t)/ t
Expected life
Expected life of a component or system,
E(T)
fT(t)
E(T)
t
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Hazard function
Hazard function: h(t)=probability that, given that a
system has survived until time t, it will fail
between times t and t+t, divided by t. Units of
h(t): 1/unit time
h(t)= fT(t)/R(t)
Example start with N=1000 light bulbs, at T=1000
hrs, 300 light bulbs are still working. After 10 hrs
5 more bulbs fail. The hazard function is
approximately: h(1005)=5/(300*10)
5
t
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fT (t )
FT (t )
fT (t )
FT (t )
R(t )
dFT (t )
dt
dR(t )
dt
fT (t ' )dt'
1 R (t )
R(t )
1 fT (t ' )dt'
1 FT (t )
h(t )
dFT (t )
t
dt
1 fT (t ' )dt' 1 FT (t )
0
fT (t )
dR (t )
dt
R (t )
h(t )
t
h (t ')dt '
R ( 0) h ( t ) e 0
t
h (t ')dt'
1 R ( 0) e 0
t
h (t ')dt'
R ( 0) e 0
E(T)=
t
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Normal distribution
Two parameter distribution
fT(t)
Standard deviation,
t
10
(z)
0.5
-1
0.16
-2
0.02
-3
0.001
-4
310-5
12
f (t)
T
The area under the
curve to the left of zero
is the probability
of t being negative
Weibull distribution
Good choice for systems or components whose strength
deteriorates with time and which are subjected to extreme
disturbances occurring completely at random and
independently.
Consider a building in Greece that is expected to be sustain
a very strong earthquake (say above 6.5 in the Richter
scale) once every ten years. Like any real life system, the
strength of the building deteriorates with time. A Weibull
distribution is a good candidate for modeling the time to
failure (or length of the life) of the building.
Very popular for describing strength and life length
Generalizes the exponential distribution
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Reliability function
t
(
)
R(t ) e
for t greater than
Three parameter distribution:
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beta=0.5
f(t)
6
4
2
0
theta=0.5
theta=1
theta=4
16
f(t)
theta=0.5
theta=1
theta=4
17
4
3
f(t)
2
1
0
theta=0.5
theta=1
theta=4
18
f(t)
6
4
2
0
t het a=0.5
t het a=1
t het a=4
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Statistics
E (T ) ( ) (1
2 ( )2 [ (1 ) {(1 )}2 ]
median T ( )e
0.3665
22
24
t
27
Reliability
t
p ( )d
R(t ) e P (t ) e 0
fT (t ) p(t )e P (t )
If p(t) is constant :
R(t ) e pt
fT (t ) pe pt
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Suggested reading
Fox, E., The Role of Statistical Testing in
NDA, Engineering Design Reliability
Handbook, CRC press, 2004, p. 26-1.
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