COMFTF07

Cause/Effect

Dr. David F. Maas

Cause/Effect
♦ Most Important of Logical Relationships
♦ We want to know not only what happens but why
it happens.
♦ We want to know why national debt can’t be
brought under control.
♦ We want to know why we have unemployment.
♦ We want to know why our cities decay from the
inside out.
♦ We want to know the effects of using pesticides.
Cause/Effect
♦ . We want to know the cause of our young people taking
LSD and Crack..
♦ We want to know the short and long range effects of their
acquired habit.
♦ We want to know why gang violence is on the increase
in the affluent suburbs.
♦ GM, Ford, and Chrysler want to know why the Japanese
and German car manufacturers are beating the pants off
from them.
♦ Divorced people want to know why their marriages fell
apart.
.
Cause/Effect
♦ Causal reasoning may move in either
direction from the cause to the effect or the
effect to the cause.
♦ As a matter of fact, the effect may become
another cause.
Cause /Effect
♦ • Work piles up.
♦ • I feel under stress because of the work piling up.
♦ • I sip three glasses of Vodka to relieve stress.
♦ • I become mellow and allow work to pile up.
♦ • I feel anxiety because while I became inebriated
more work piled up.
♦ • I down myself for letting work pile up.
♦ • I feel guilty in so doing.
♦ • The guilt leads to stress.
♦ • I sip three glasses of Vodka to relive stress..
Cause/Effect
♦ Dr. Albert Ellis in his book Overcoming
Procrastination illustrates how an effect can become
a further cause:
Consider Debbie’s problem of doing the dishes:
♦ Activating Event- observing dirty dishes in the
sink.
♦ Beliefs- “How annoying to clean them, but I’d
better.” (rational).
♦ “ I can’t stand this mess. It looks too tough to tackle.”
(irrational)
Cause/Effect
♦ Consequence- frustration.(rational)
♦ Reaction- do the dishes.(rational)
♦ or--avoid doing the dishes. (irrational)
(Ellis, Overcoming Procrastination, p29-
30)
Cause/Effect
♦ Thirteen-year-old Paul keeps thinking he would like to
clean up part of the cellar at his parents’ house in order to
make a game room.
♦ He has contemplated this for the past three years and,
rather than getting started, he tries not to think about the
long-delayed project because when he reminds himself to
do some work he lambasts himself for the time he
already has wasted. (Ellis, Overcoming Procrastination,
P.9)
Cause/Effect
♦ . The next portion of this lesson we will
stress terminology, stages in causal
reasoning, and a list of problems that
frequently occur in causal analysis.
Cause/ Effect

♦ We can classify causes as Necessary,

Sufficient, or Contributory .
Cause/Effect
♦ Necessary

♦ Sufficient

♦
Contributory
Cause/Effect
♦ Necessary Causes
♦ The necessary cause must be present in order for the effect to
occur.
♦ For example, the Flu virus must be present in order for the effect
(the disease) to occur.
• A person may make himself more susceptible by staying up until
4:00 AM.
♦ • A person may make himself more susceptible by a haphazard
diet of junk food.
♦ • A person may make himself more susceptible by walking
around in the rain with no shoes.
Cause/Effect
♦ • A person may make himself more susceptible
by sitting in a draft.
♦ But we can consider none of these items as the
necessary cause of the Flu. The Flu Bug has to
attack before the willfully derelict individual gets
the Flu.
Example: Necessary Cause: A spark is necessary to
ignite a gasoline engine.
♦ The HIV virus must be present for AIDS to occur.
Cause/Effect

♦ A Sufficient Cause has the capability of

producing an effect unaided. More than one
sufficient cause may produce the same effect.
Example: A cough can be produced by a cold
virus, pneumonia, emphysema, lung cancer,
tuberculosis, an abscess on the larynx, smog,
tobacco juice, Tabasco sauce,or chalk dust.
Cause/Effect
♦ : A dead battery can prevent a car from
starting, but so can a faulty spark-plug,
water in the distributor, or no gasoline.
Cause/Effect
♦ Personal Example
♦ Fuel Filter
Cause/Effect
♦ Sufficient Causes
♦ Fuel Filter
♦ Fuel Pump
Cause/Effect
♦ Sufficient Causes:
♦ Fuel Filter
♦ Fuel Pump
Cause/Effect
♦ Sufficient Causes:
♦ Fuel Filter
♦ Fuel Pump
♦ Carburetor
Cause/Effect
♦ Sufficient Causes:
♦ Fuel Filter
♦ Fuel Pump
♦ Carburetor
Cause/Effect
♦ Sufficient Causes:
♦ Fuel Filter
♦ Fuel Pump
♦ Carburetor
♦ Water in Gas Tank
Cause/Effect
Contributory Causes
♦ A contributory cause can help to produce an effect, but
cannot do so by itself.
• Example: Running through a red light may cause an
accident.
♦ •Example: Skipping class may cause a failing grade when
linked with other causes.
♦ •Example: Smoking may contribute to lung cancer, but it is
not necessarily the major cause or the sole cause.( The
body can withstand remarkable abuse).
♦
Cause/Effect
♦ Stages in Causal Reasoning
James Mc Crimmon has identified three stages in causal
reasoning:
♦ 1. Whatever the cause, it must exist in the situation
and must be sufficient to produce the effect.
♦ This step requires the investigator to identify all of the
possible causes, isolating which of the possible causes
could be sufficient to produce the effect.
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: The cold water in the Dorm shower
could be caused from:
♦ • a defective fuse
♦ • power company failure
♦ • burned out element
♦ • excessive use of shower by room mate
Any one of these (with the possible exception of
the last one) could bring about the effect unaided.
Cause/Effect
♦
♦ 2. If a sufficient cause is eliminated from the
situation, the effect will be eliminated unless there
are other causes. If the effect ceases when we remove
the possible cause, the possible cause is the cause.
♦ Example: If we suspect that a faulty bulb is the cause
for no light, we simply make a substitution-with a new
bulb. If it is the cause we look no further , not ruling out
the possibility that the original bulb may only be a
contributory cause.
Cause/Effect
♦ Remember that the bulb, the fuse, the
wiring, or the outlet could all be sufficient
causes either individually, in tandem, or in
a series.
Example: If a faulty chip is replaced in a
transmitter, the capacitor, the resistor or
rectifier could all be at fault.
Cause/Effect
♦ 3. If the cause is introduced into a similar situation,
it should bring about a similar effect.

Example: If we suspect a faulty battery, fuse, or bulb, we

could insert one into a different socket or receptacle
where one has been operating. If the battery or fuse
doesn’t work, or the light doesn’t turn on, we reject our
hypothesis. But if the fuse or battery work or the
lightbulb turns on, we have additional support for our
belief in the original hypothesis.
♦
Cause/Effect
♦
♦ Errors in Causal Reasoning
Louise Rohrabacher has identified ten
separate errors in causal reasoning:
Cause/Effect
♦ 1. Mistaking a time connection for a
causal one.
♦ This error has sometimes been referred to as
the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
fallacy, translated into English as “ After
this , therefore because of this.”
Cause/Effect
Superstitions are based upon this fallacy:
♦ • After I touched the toad, I got warts.
♦ • An owl hooted before Uncle Marvin’s death. An
owl hooting will somehow bring about death.
♦ • Labor Day, because it always occurs before the
opening of school must somehow cause the opening of
school.
♦ • The 9:00 class occurs before the 10:00 class. The
9:00 class must cause the 10:00 class.
Cause/Effect
♦ • I don’t want to hold hands with any girl.
When Travis held Cindy’s hand, he
flunked his spelling test.
♦ • After Hoover was elected, we had a
Depression. Hoover caused the Depression.
Cause/Effect
♦ 2. Mistaking for a cause things that
coincidentally happen at the same time- also
known as the concurrent fallacy.
If two things are concurrent ( take place at the
same time), It does not mean that they are related.
♦ Example: If the Southern Baptist Convention and
the National Gay Coalition hold their meetings in
the same city or perhaps the same hotel, we cannot
assume that the two events must be related.
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: Colored leaves in the fall are
believed to be caused by the frost.

♦ Some things are genuinely coincidental

such as the incident in which a young lady
accused a man of following her when
actually they were going in the same
direction at the same time for a totally
unrelated reason.
Cause/Effect
♦
♦ 3. Beware of the single cause fallacy.
We cannot settle for one single cause if
there are more.
♦ Most effects stem from multiple causes
rather than just one. Remember, the last
straw did not break the camel’s back by
itself. The single cause fallacy results from
jumping to conclusions.
Cause/Effect
Example: A motorist hears someone honking at
him. He jumps to the conclusion that they want
him to go faster. Other reasons the other motorist
may be honking could include:
♦ • His transmission may be coming loose
♦ • He may be honking because he recognizes him
♦ • He may have a bumper sticker which reads,
“Honk if you love Jesus.”
Cause/Effect
♦ Many newspaper headlines reveal the
single cause fallacy:
♦ • Sex education causes promiscuity.
♦ • Television destroys a student’s capacity
to read.
♦ • Comic books cause juvenile
delinquency.
Cause/Effect
♦ James Mc Crimmon suggests that attributing racial
strife to differences in skin color ignores the other
social and economic causes.
♦ Randal Decker suggests that the writer who
brings his old prejudices to the task of causal
analysis or fails to see the probability of multiple
causes or effects is certain to destroy his analysis,
making it so superficial it becomes worthless.
Cause/Effect
♦ Be sure to distinguish between immediate
and remote causes.
♦ Example: Instructor “ Why are you here at Texas
College?”
♦ Student: “Because my father married my mother.”
♦
♦ This line of reasoning starts back too far. We need
to look at the immediate rather than the remote
causes.
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: “Why did Jeffrey Dhamer slay those
young boys and have homosexual relations with
them?”
“Well, it all started with Cain and Abel.” or “It all
started when Lucifer decided to rebel against
God.”
“Why is Elizabeth Taylor’s marriage on the rocks?’
♦ “It all started in the Garden of Eden when Eve
decided to eat the forbidden fruit.”
♦
Cause/Effect
♦ In one sense everything in the universe
could be said to be influenced by everything
else in the universe.

♦ Nothing occurs in a complete vacuum.

Cause/Effect
♦ Closing of Canning Factory
♦ Filthy rag last straw
♦ Symbol management’s refusal to replace
pipes and equipment
Cause/Effect
♦ Ever pervasive desire to make profit
♦ Higher production costs
♦ Labor costs
♦ Weather factors
♦ Economic well-being of nation.
Cause/Effect
♦ In 1991, Iraqi Foreign Minister Teriq Aziz
insisted that Iraq invaded Kuwait because Israel
occupied the West Bank.
♦ Such tangential remote excuses for such
bizarre behavior doesn’t even qualify as a
rationalization.
♦ represents a tortured extremely remote cause.
♦
Cause/Effect
5. Be sure the cause has the capacity to produce the effect.
♦ Louise Rohrabacher describes an incident in which a
person leaves a big juicy beef steak on the table. When he
returned, the steak was gone. If a huge Great Dane or Black
Labrador were left in the house, and perhaps further
circumstantial evidence appeared such as red bloody juice
dripping from the muzzle, distended ribs on the dog, a
sheepish look on the dog’s face, etc., we have a prime
suspect. A lone kitten asleep in the corner would be
exonerated.
Cause/Effect
♦ Back in 1349, the Black Death wiped
out 2/3 of Europe’s population. The Jews
were blamed for poisoning the wells. There
were not that many Jews in all of Europe to
accomplish such a task.
♦
Cause/Effect
♦ A story circulated about a man who went
down in a mine with a hammer and saw.
The mine later collapsed and the man was
blamed. It was later determined that the
width of the beams and the sturdiness of the
structure made it impossible for the man to
inflict that much damage and eventually
another explanation was sought.
♦
Cause/Effect
♦ 6. Be sure that the causes are adequate for the
effects - can actually get the job done.
♦ One president thought that by cutting taxes
and cutting the budget, the economic problems
would solve themselves. The immediate effects
led to investor’s putting their monies into foreign
markets rather than the domestic economy,
causing the closing of plants and unemployment to
rise.
♦
Cause/Effect
♦ Proponents of Women’s Suffrage felt that the vote
would cure society’s ills and bring equality for all.
♦ Proponents of the ERA amendment naively
assume the same thing. The ERA will probably be
as effective at promoting equality as the balanced
budget amendment will bring our deficit under
control.
♦ The O.E.O. did not do away with poverty.

♦
Cause/Effect
♦ The crime bill, replete with midnight basketball
and handicrafts will not do away with gang
violence.
♦ Economic ills cannot be treated until the
complexity of the issue is addressed and the greed
factor of human nature is checked.
The argument that productivity itself will improve
the economy fails to take into account that
productivity by itself will not bring down prices
unless companies are willing to turn out more for
less profit.
Cause/Effect
7. Allow for causes that may nullify predicted
effects.
Example: The increase in the minimum wage is a
short sighted view some labor leaders see as a
solution. But wage increases lead to higher prices to
pay for the wage increases-leading to another
unfortunate effect -a higher cost of living- refueling
a demand for another wage increase.
Cause/Effect
Example: When the federal government
closed down Fort Ord and the San Diego
Shipyard, it did so as an economy move,
not realizing that depressing the local
economy created a greater demand for
disaster relief, wiping out all the economic
gains.
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: People feel more empowered
if they are given more credit,
♦ but the more credit one has, the more the
bank reckons the liabilities potential.
♦ If you can borrow $50,000 on your
signature, you can also owe the bank
$50,000 on your signature.
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: Governmental subsidies can prop
up prices artificially, but can weaken
company’s resolve to compete in the world
market.
♦
Cause/Effect
♦ 8. Avoid predicting contradictory effects.

♦ Example: Sometimes it is impossible for two

predicted effects to exist side by side.
♦ Louise Rohrabacher once used the example of a
politician who promised to lower taxes, increase
public works, increase military spending and
social programs, and balance. the budget.
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: Hillary Clinton’s recent health
care package which would have
commandeered 1/7 of the national
economy would cost the average tax payer
more, and would not constitute free health
care at all.
Cause/Effect
♦ 9. Do not mistake the cause for the effect
or the effect for the cause.
Example: Louise Rohrabacher suggests
that Medieval philosophers tried to
substantiate the goodness of God because
He made a great river run through every
city.
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: We hear about the old farmer
who says,” If I’d Known I was going to
have such nice children I would have
picked a better mother for ‘em.” (not
realizing that the mother was a contributory
cause of his nice children.)
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: We hear the caution, “Don’t eat
too much sugar. You will get diabetes.”
♦ Actually , sugar consumption is a symptom,
not a cause of diabetes.
♦
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: When people think that a high
fever causes the Flu, they will think that
putting ice packs on their forehead will
actually cure the Flu.
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: When a motorist blames a car’s
inefficiency on the knocking of the engine,
he might be tempted to muffle the sound,
masking the real problem.
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: One naive horse trainer in
Baldwin Park , California blamed his
horse’s lack of performance on the pain in
its legs.
♦ After he injected anti-pain drugs, the horse
broke its leg and had to be destroyed.
Cause/Effect
♦ 10. Avoid the pitfall of rationalization.
♦ A rationalization constitutes a false or
superficial reason replacing the real one.
♦
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: The driver blames a failing
brake or road conditions for his own
carelessness.
♦ Example: The tailgater blames the car in
front of him for stopping abruptly.
♦
Cause/Effect
Example: The musician blames a faulty
spit valve or too much resin on the bow or
bad action on the piano keys.(Instead of his
own lack of practice.)
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: The bowler who blames his poor
performance on - “ The light was bad, the
ball had a chip on the side, my shoe came
untied” rather than his own lack of practice
rationalizes away the real reason.
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: The student who skips nine
classes fails the course.
♦ He then blames the teacher who, “Didn’t
teach me anything.”
Cause/Effect
♦ Example: The student who procrastinates
on his research paper blames a computer
failure or the perennial, “ the dog peed on
it” excuse for his own laziness.
Cause/Effect
♦
♦ Example: We hear the old story of the man
who goes into the radio station for a job interview.

♦ Man “ wh wh wh where ah ah ah ah ah are th

th th in in in inter views fo fo fo for th th th the a
a a an n n n n nounce er j j j j job”
Cause/Effect
♦ Receptionist: Go down the hall and turn to
the right at the first door.
♦
Cause/Effect
♦ After a few minutes the man returned down
the hall , sighing, “ j j j j ju ju ju jus just a a
a as as as I I I I th th th th thought s s s s s same o
o o old s s s story. Th th th th they j j j j just wo
wo wo wo won’t h h h hi hi hire a a an an any C C
C C C Ca Ca Ca Catholics.”