Statistics for Social Research

2015

Probability & Sampling

3/11/2015
NYU

Spring

Probability
Probability theory
To describe patterns from random events
Definition
A quantitative measure of the chance that an
event will occur
Sample space
The set of all possible outcomes

The number of times an event will occur

P
The set of all possible and equally likely outcomes
e.g., roll a die (discrete), age at death
(continuous)

Relative Frequency Method

Definition
Using information from past events to predict
the likelihood of future events
Views on police performance
Frequency

Proportion

Poor

326

0.25

Fair

452

0.36

Good

488

0.39

1266

1.00

Total

Question. What is the probability that

respondents think police do a good job?
The observed probability vs. the true probability

Rules of Probability
Axioms
For an event, E, 0 P(E) 1
The sample space, S, is exhaustive: P(S) = 1
P(not E) = 1 P(E)
For disjoint outcomes, A and B,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
For independent outcomes, A and B,
P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

Conditional Probability
The probability of an event B given the
occurrence of an event A
For dependent events

P ( A and B )
P ( B | A)
P ( A)
- Knowledge of the occurrence of A makes the
occurrence of B more likely
- In general, P(B|A) P(B) and P(A|B) P(A) for
dependent events; P(A and B) = P(B|A) x P(A)
For independent events
- P(B|A) = P(B) and P(A|B) = P(A)
- Knowledge of the occurrence of A makes the
occurrence of B no more or less likely; P(A and B)
= P(A) x P(B)

Conditional Probability

Probability in Relation to Normal

Distribution
Normal distribution
Areas expressed as proportions or
percentages of the number of observations in a
sample
e.g., The prevalence of texting among a sample of
200 girls
- The mean: 70 per day
- The s.d.: 10
Question. What is the probability of randomly
selecting a girl who texts between 70 and 80
messages per day?
- Calculate Z scores: 0 and 1
- Find the corresponding proportions from a
standard normal table: 0 and 0.3413
- So

Probability Sampling
Recall our first class
Population vs. sample
Parameter vs. statistic
Use statistics from samples to estimate
parameters of populations
From descriptive statistics to inferential
statistics
How to do it?
Purpose
To select a sample that is as representative as
possible of the population
In a way to allow the use of probability theory
to evaluate the generalizations made from the
sample to the population

Probability Sampling
Simple random sample
The most basic probability sampling design
Properties
- Every member of the population has an equal
chance of being chosen
- With the sample size of n, every combination
of n members has an equal chance of being
chosen
Procedure
- Number the members of the population (id
number)
- Pick the random numbers using a random
numbers table
- Find members whose id numbers correspond
to the picked random numbers

Probability Sampling
Example
- Draw a simple random sample of 5 out of a
total of 20
1. Assign id number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 17
18 19 20
2. Pick 5 random numbers b/w 1 and 20: 4 5 6
14 20
3. The sample = {4, 5, 6, 14, 20}

Random Numbers Table

Probability Sampling
Systematic random sample

Population size
K
Sample size
Every Kth member in the total population is
chosen for inclusion in the sample after the first
member of the sample is selected at random from
among the first K members in the population

Probability Sampling
Stratified random sample
Dividing the population into subgroups based
on one or more variables of interest and then
Drawing a simple random sample from each of
the subgroups
Proportionate vs. disproportionate
Population

Strata:
race/ethnicity

Random sample within each

stratum