Avoidance Techniques For

Firefighters

 Learning how to better

understand fire behavior
potential and to act soon
enough to avoid
entrapments.

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 COMMONALITIES
1. Firefighters reacting to fire behavior
changes rather than acting on potential.
2. Fire behavior not predicted or expected.
3. New situation negating safety margins.

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 Cramer Analysis by O.I.G.

 FS management issues that were common to

each fire.
 Fire suppression personnel violated all of the

"10 Standard Fire Orders" and failed to

mitigate most of the "18 Watchout Situations.

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 Cramer Analysis by O.I.G.

 FS management issues that were common to each fire.

 Each fire had rapid growth unexpected by

management; fire suppression personnel employed
questionable or improper tactics, and did not adjust
their tactics as necessary.

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 Cramer Analysis by O.I.G.

 FS management issues that were common to each fire.

 Incident Commanders (IC) failed to maintain clear

command and control at critical points, and key

personnel lacked situational awareness.

 FS officials failed to provide adequate oversight

and supervision to the ICs.

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 RATIONALE
 Would you agree that…
 Knowing when and where the fire behavior could
change and become dangerous, is important?
 Failure to predict fire behavior change has been
the root cause of burnover accidents?
 The safety area and escape route selection need to
be based on accurate prediction of fire behavior
changes?

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 LESSONS LEARNED
 Some firefighters know the potential because they have
developed their intuition through long experience.
 Eventually learning the hard way, they avoid situations
that are potentially dangerous.
 They can’t or don’t explain the cause of the change.
 They receive criticism because they know, but can’t
explain how they know.

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How to Base Tactics on Predicted
Fire Behavior
 Fire Order ..#2
 Base your action on
current and expected
fire behavior.
 All burnover accidents
have not had the fire
behavior accurately
predicted, if predicted at
all.

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 LOOKOUTS

 It takes more than the

act of posting a lookout
to avoid problems.
 Lookouts need to know
the trigger point of fire
behavior change and
how to warn people at
an appropriate time to
avoid danger.

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 COMMUNICATIONS
 Firefighters need to
know how to explain
their feeling that the
position of the crew is
dangerous.
 Intuition may not be
enough to convince
people to take action.
 Communication is more
than just being able to
talk.
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ESCAPE ROUTES
 Escape routes have
failed to be used in time.
 Changes in the fire
behavior have wrecked
escape routes.
 To be assured the
escape route is good it is
necessary to know the
fire will not threaten it.

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UNPREDICTED EVENTS

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 SAFETY AREAS
 Safety area
computations are half
the requirement to
assure they are viable.
 20 ft. of flame requires
1/2 acre.
 There are many
deployment sites that
were thought to be safe
areas.

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LCES is Effective When…
 Experience provides for
safe use of the LCES
rules of engagement.
 New experiences will
endanger firefighters.
 In that event, LCES
becomes less insurance
for firefighter safety.

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Learning to Make Fire Behavior
Predictions
How observations can be used to make
predictions of flame length.
Step 1: Where will the fire get worse or easier?
Step 2: What are the threshold fire signatures?
Step 3: What force alignments caused these
variations in flame length?
Step 4: Which fire signatures will replicate in
the areas the fire has yet to burn ?
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Fire Signatures

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 How The Dillon Firefighters
Avoided a Burnover
 On August 13, 1994 the Dillon Fire was
positioned much like the South Canyon Fire.
It was about to make a strong run and there
were firefighters on the fire line that would be
overrun by the fire.
 The FBA and Operations Chief recognized the
potential and ordered the firefighters moved
into a safety area 4 hours before the run
occurred.

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The Tactics Were Set, Then a
New Fire Was Discovered

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WHAT TIME WILL FULL
ALIGNMENT HAPPEN?

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TIME TAG THE WORK

 Predict, “If the fire

reaches the opposite
slope it will run to the
top, and crown”
 Full alignment by
1400 - 1800 hours
 Get firefighters off the
line by 1100 hours

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DRAW THE FIRST RUN
PERIMETER
 Area in alignment for
afternoon hours.
 High potential for a
run between 1500 and
1800 hours.
 It is a hazardous area
for the afternoon
hours. Time tag the
tactics.

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Mapping the Potential
 Lay the wind direction
forecast on the map.
 Color the afternoon South
and West aspects yellow to
highlight fuel flammability
alignment in the afternoon.
 Establish trigger points and
tracks where wind, slope
and hot fuel align.
 Act on the potential.

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 SIMILARITIES
The Dillon Fire trigger point, track The South Canyon Fire trigger point,
and first in alignment run predicted track and in alignment run not
for 1630 happened @ 1730 predicted happened @ 1630.

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The Fire Went into Alignment

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 COMPARING FIRES

Trigger Point of Fire Behavior change

Fire Track
All three fires hit the trigger point and were then in full alignment with
wind, slope and solar preheat peaks.
Firefighters perished because they did not understand the potential on the fire ground. 25
TACTICAL STEPS
1. Time Tag the task
2. Establish trigger pts.
3. Identify in alignment
tracks.
4. Establish Fire
Signature thresholds
5. Make fire signature
predictions

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REMINDER CARD

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STOP SLIDE SHOW

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Explaining the Potential

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 Tracks

Wind
Trigger Pts. 30
Wind
End 31
TACTICAL ACTION
 They stayed until the
fire went into alignment
and threatened them.
 14 died because no one
understood how to
establish trigger points,
time tags and tracks and
they did not act based
on the potential.

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 SUMMARY

 You have had a short lesson in how to

base your actions on the current and
predicted fire behavior, and
 how to establish the trigger points, tracks,

time tags and explain the prediction of a

change in fire behavior.

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 Wildland Fire Signature
Prediction Methods
 8 hour primer with little exercise time, 16 hour
course with one exercise per student team, 24 hour
course with four exercises by student teams.
 Train the Trainer course - 16-24 hours. Individuals
to complete all 4 problems and present to class.
 CPS/RX
 Prescribed burning application - 8 hours
classroom.

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 Training Objectives
 To teach students how to determine when, where
thresholds of safe fire behavior will be, and for how
long.
 To teach the language that allows the students to
explain how they know the potential of the fire and to
act based on the potential.
 To teach students how to display fire potential and
timing on maps and plan tactics accordingly.
 To enhance students situational awareness.

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 Training Program Content
 Pre-reading the book and workbook is
required.
 PowerPoint graphic presentation with movies
imbedded in slides.
 Exercises: 3-4 person teams to solve and
present solutions to workbook fire problems.
 Displays: Solid Terrain Models used as aids to
solving fire problems.

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 Training Program Costs
 Book and Workbook $40.
 Pre read and brought to class.
 Schedule 8, 16, or 24 hour class.
 Train the Trainer in 24 hours.
 Instructor packet and graphics options at
additional cost.
 Instructor fee and perdiem are negotiable.

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