Review on

Contingency
Planning/Worst
Case Scenario
Building
Prescillano C. Seno Jr.
Municipal Coordinator-Hernani and Balangkayan
Plan International

THE PROCESS

Scanning the Environment

Generating Scenarios
(Anatomy of emergency)

Setting policies
and sectoral objectives
Predicting Needs
Employ indicators

Identify Gaps

Taking stock
Of Resources

Arranging Response System & Actions

Endorsement/ Updating /Testing & Activation

Contingency Cycle
FORMULATION

ENDORSEMENT/
TESTING/UPDATING

ASSESSMENT
ACTIVATION

Scanning the
Environment

Scanning the
Environment

GEOGRAPHIC: location, contour, features,etc

DEMOGRAPHIC: population, concentration, mobility,
density, growth
ECONOMIC: production, industry, trade, transportation,
ownership, etc
SOC-CULTURE: ethnic composition, culture and habits,
main issues, traditional links
SECURITY & DEFENSE: crimes, major threats, public
safety, major installations,

Scanning the
Environment

B. HAZARD/DISASTER PROFILE
BUILDING
PAST EVENTS

POTENTIAL HAZARDS/RISK

- what

- probability

- when

- impact

- where

Scanning the
Environment

Defining the Event to Plan for

Criteria

*Probability to occur (P)

* Will create the most Impact (I)

Scanning the
Environment
CP Form 1
Hazard ID and Risk Assessment
RAN
K

HAZARD

Legend:

Group
I

REMARKS

P Probability

I Impact

RISK RATING SCALE

1 Most unlikely
2 Low Probability
3 Perhaps
4 High Probability
5 Almost Certain

1 Negligible
2 Low Impact
3 Minimal Impact
4 High Impact
5 Devastating

AVERAGE

Defining the CP
Planning Scenario /
Anatomy of the
Event to Plan For

Defining the CP Planning

Scenario /
Anatomy of the Event to Plan
For

By this time you should have arrived

at one particular emergency that is
agreed to be the one that the local
must plan for

Defining the CP Planning

Scenario /
Anatomy of the Event to Plan
For

Drawing the Anatomy

of the Event to plan for

Part-1
Draw a location map
Put important
landmarks
State & describe the
emergency event
Draw the event in
the map
..

Part-2
Determine the root
cause/s
Identify the trigger
List down the
observable early
warning signals

Defining the CP Planning

Scenario /
Anatomy of the Event to Plan
For
CP Form 2
Event to Plan for _______________________
____

Root Causes

Early
Warning

Triggering
Factors

Group
DRR
Measures
(P / M / R)

Defining the CP Planning

Scenario /
Anatomy of the Event to Plan
For

What scenarios do we plan for?

Different shapes of possible emergency

Scenarios to which your

School is likely to respond.
3 of the most plausible
scenarios (Bad, Worse &
Worst)
Plan for the worst case
scenario

The plausibility or
probability of each scenario
should be communicated to
other offices

Defining the CP Planning

Scenario /
Anatomy of the Event to Plan
For

Stating Scenarios
Bad, Worse,
Worst
Assumptions form the
foundation of each scenario
and should be made explicit
so others can understand the
reasoning.

ASSUMPTIONS: KANLAON VOLCANO

Scenario
Description of the event
Impact on social sector
1. Families directly
affected
2. Deaths
3. Injuries
4. Missing
5. Houses damaged

Impact on Agriculture
1. Sugarcane
2. Livestock
3. Fisheries
4. Others

Worst Case
Volcanic eruption reaching Alert Level 5
20,943 households
3,000 persons
20,000 persons
3,000 persons
31,000 houses damaged due to pyroclastic
flow
3,500 houses damaged due to lahar flow
P5.2 Billion worth of damaged houses

P2.5 Billion worth of damage in agriculture

Defining the CP Planning

Scenario /
Anatomy of the Event to Plan
CP Form 3
For
Event to Plan for _______________________
____

Group

SCENARIO
SITUATIONS
Description of
Event/occurence
Death/Injury
Affected
Population
Effects on
Housing,
Properties and
Livelihood
Effects on Infra
and Facilities
Response
Capabilities

Bad Case

Worse Case

Worst Case

Defining the CP Planning

Scenario /
Anatomy of the Event to Plan
For
CP Form 4
No. of Population likely to be affected: _____________________

So you have an
event in mind,
but...

Setting
Policies and
Objectives

General
Policies

Setting Policies and Objectives

- Defines vision and direction

of operation
- Defines areas of
responsibilities
- Reference for operation
- General in nature, less
controversy

Setting Policies and Objectives

Important Policies to
Consider

Global norms
- Declaration of World Leaders during the World
Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction held
on January 18 22, 2005, Kobe, Japan
- Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) Priorities
for Action 2005 2010
- UN Milennium Development Goals (UNMDGs)

Setting Policies and Objectives

Important Policies to
Consider
Global norms
- SPHERE Project on Humanitarian Charter and Minimum
Standards in Disaster Response
- United Nations Convention on Refugee Status
- UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (UNGPID)
- IFRCs International Disaster Response Laws, Rules and
Principles (IDRL)
- ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency
Response (AADMER)
- UN Cluster Approach for Humanitarian Response

Setting Policies and Objectives

Important Policies to
Consider
LOCAL NORMS

LOCAL NORMS
- RA 10121
- Local Government Code of 1991
- Other local legislations/issuances

Identifying
Gaps
PROJECTED NEEDS
VS.
EXISTING RESOURCES

GAP ID MATRIX
AGENCIES LIKELY TO BE INVOLVED

TASKS / NEEDS

Identifying Gaps

Result of Task Analysis:

A gap analysis
matrix
containing
what
will
be
accomplished
by
who
by when

Identifying Gaps

Identifying Gaps

Main Points
Many problems facing emergency managers
point to the need for more openness towards
coordination, starting from indicators as
common DENOMINATION
It is important to shift the focus

from We, the responders

to They, the people who need help
Standard indicators are valuable tools in all of
these regards, but they must be balanced with
common sense

SECTORS / CLUSTERS
- SAR
- WASH
- Evacuation Center Management
- Food
- Communications / Security
- Engineering

Identifying Gaps

The Sectors / Clusters

Food & nutrition

Health/Medical
Water & sanitation
Temporary shelter
Evacuation Center Management
Transportation
Communications and Warning
DANA
SAR
Engineering
Command, Control & Coordination
On-Scene Incident Management

Identifying Gaps

Some Emergency Indicators

Indicator

Food
Water
Site Space
Shelter
Latrine
Family Kits
Blanket

Quantity or Rate
2,100 kilo cal.(500 gr. /person /day)

7.5 liters/person/day
<30 sq. meters per person
<3.5 sq. meters per person
1 unit/20 pax1/5 px family
1 unit/5 persons family
1 piece/person

Balance analysis of indicators with common sense!

Identifying Gaps

Sectoral / Cluster Planning

Define sectoral objectives

Present the sector / cluster organization
(sector/cluster leads and members).
Describe the sector/cluster tasks
Describe the general situation in the sector
when the event to plan for occurs
Define the needs by comparing the existing
resources vs. projected requirements
Determine the sectoral indicators when appropriate
Draw a flowchart of the sectors activities and how
the tasks are distributed to sector members
Define the sector / cluster DRR measures (ST MT
LT)

Identifying Gaps

CP Form 5 Task Analysis

Cluster/Sector Plans and Arrangements

X = minor

(X) = major/lea

Identifying Gaps
CP Form 6 Needs and Activities Inventory
Cluster/Sectoral Planning and Arrangements
Objective: To
upgrade immediate/adequate
Cluster/Sector
_______________
relief/food
assistance to affected families

Identifying Gaps
CP Form 7 Resource Inventory
Cluster/Sector Planning and Arrangements
Cluster /Sector_______________

Identifying Gaps
CP Form 8 Needs Projection and Resource Gap
Identification
Cluster /Sector Planning and Arrangements
Cluster/Sector _______________

Concept of Operation (Flow Chart)

Sector: ______________

Arranging
Response
Systems and
Actions

Coordination

CONSOLIDATION OF THE DRAFT

CONTINGENCY PLAN

Integrate the otherwise fragmented sectoral pl

into a coherent contingency plan (drafting stag

A three-man committee may be

constituted to
consolidate the draft contingency plan
based
Follow-up of the draft plan regular and
on the standard Contingency Plan format
monitoring meetings, updating of facts
and assumptions

Endorsemen
t and
Activation

Endorsement - Activation
When the plan has been finalized, have the group
actually submit the PLAN to relevant authorities
. . . Local Chief Executive/Chairman-LDCC
. . . Local Sanggunian

Provide sufficient justification to the local chief

executive and local Sanggunian that in case such
emergency takes place, the amount of resources
specified in the plan will be required.

Endorsement - Activation

Who will put together the sectoral plans

into a Contingency Plan?
Which agency will follow through this plan
(calling regular and monitoring meeting,
updating the facts and assumptions, etc.)
Who will monitor and report the early
warning signals
How the plan will be tested (table-top,
hypothetical drill, full-fledged simulation?)
When and how will the plan be activated?,
reviewed, and updated
(or staged down)

Steps Forward

Contingency
Plan Format