Binomial

Distribution and
Applications

Binomial Probability
Distribution
A binomial random variable X is defined to the

number of successes in n independent trials

where the P(success) = p is constant.
Notation: X ~ BIN(n,p)

In the definition above notice the following

conditions need to be satisfied for a binomial
experiment:
1. There is a fixed number of n trials carried out.
2. The outcome of a given trial is either a
success
or failure.
3. The probability of success (p) remains constant
from trial to trial.
4. The trials are independent, the outcome of a
trial is not affected by the outcome of any other
trial.

Binomial Distribution

If X ~ BIN(n, p), then

n x
n!
n x
P( X x) p (1 p )
p x (1 p ) n x x 0,1,..., n.
x!(n x)!
x

where
n! n (n 1) (n 2) ... 1, also 0! 1 and 1! 1
n
" n choose x" the number of ways to obtain
x
x " successes" in n trials.
P (" success" ) p

Binomial Distribution

If X ~ BIN(n, p), then

n x
n!
n x
P( X x) p (1 p )
p x (1 p ) n x x 0,1,..., n.
x!(n x)!
x

E.g. when n = 3 and p = .50 there are 8 possible

equally likely outcomes (e.g. flipping a coin)
SSS
SSF
SFS
FSS SFF FSF FFS
FFF
X=3
X=2 X=2 X=2 X=1 X=1 X=1
X=0
P(X=3)=1/8, P(X=2)=3/8, P(X=1)=3/8, P(X=0)=1/8
Now lets use binomial probability formula
instead

Binomial Distribution

If X ~ BIN(n, p), then

n x
n!
n x
P( X x) p (1 p )
p x (1 p ) n x x 0,1,..., n.
x!(n x)!
x

E.g. when n = 3, p = .50 find P(X = 2)

3
3!
3!
3 2 1

3 ways
2 2!(3 2)! 2!1! (2 1) 1

SSF
SFS
FSS

3 2
P( X 2) .5 (.5) 3 2 3(.52 )(.51 ) .375 or 3
8
2

Example: Treatment of
Kidney Cancer

Suppose we have n = 40 patients who will

be receiving an experimental therapy
which is believed to be better than current
treatments which historically have had a 5year survival rate of 20%, i.e. the
probability of 5-year survival is
p = .20.
Thus the number of patients out of 40 in
our study surviving at least 5 years has a
binomial distribution, i.e. X ~ BIN(40,.20).

Results and The

Question

Suppose that using the new treatment

we find that 16 out of the 40 patients
survive at least 5 years past diagnosis.
Q: Does this result suggest that the new
therapy has a better 5-year survival rate
than the current, i.e. is the probability
that a patient survives at least 5 years
greater than .20 or a 20% chance when
treated using the new therapy?

What do we consider in
answering the question of
interest?

We essentially ask ourselves the following:

If we assume that new therapy is no
better than the current what is the
probability we would see these results by
chance variation alone?

More specifically what is the probability

of seeing 16 or more successes out of 40
if the success rate of the new therapy is .
20 or 20% as well?

Connection to Binomial

This is a binomial experiment situation

There are n = 40 patients and we are
counting the number of patients that
survive 5 or more years. The individual
patient outcomes are independent and IF
WE ASSUME the new method is NOT
better then the probability of success is p
= .20 or 20% for all patients.
So X = # of successes in the clinical
trial is binomial with n = 40 and p = .20,
i.e. X ~ BIN(40,.20)

Example: Treatment of
Kidney Cancer

X ~ BIN(40,.20), find the probability that

exactly 16 patients survive at least 5 years.

40
.2016.80 24 .001945
P ( X 16)
16

This requires some calculator gymnastics

and some scratchwork!
Also, keep in mind we need to find the
probability of having 16 or more patients
surviving at least 5 yrs.

Example: Treatment of
Kidney Cancer

So we actually need to find:

P(X > 16) = P(X = 16) + P(X = 17) + +
P(X = 40)
40
16
24
P ( X 16)

.20 .80 .001945

16

40
.2017.80 23 .000686
P( X 17)
17

40
.20 40.800 0
40

P( X 40)

= .002936

YIPES!

Example: Treatment of
Kidney Cancer

X ~ BIN(40,.20), find the probability that

16 or more patients survive at least 5
years.
probabilities are computed
USE COMPUTER!
automatically for greater than
or equal to and less
Binomial Probability calculator
in than or
equal to x.
JMP

Enter
n = sample size
x = observed # of successes
p = probability of success

Example: Treatment of
Kidney Cancer

X ~ BIN(40,.20), find the probability that

16 or more patients survive at least 5
years.
USE COMPUTER!
Binomial Probability calculator in
JMP

P(X > 16) = .0029362

The chance that we would see 16 or more patients out of 40
surviving at least 5 years if the new method has the same chance
of success as the current methods (20%) is VERY SMALL, .0029!!!!

Conclusion

A)

B)

Because it is high unlikely (p = .0029) that

we would see this many successes in a
group 40 patients if the new method had
the same probability of success as the
current method we have to make a choice,
either
we have obtained a very rare result by
dumb luck.
OR
our assumption about the success rate of
the new method is wrong and in actuality
the new method has a better than 20% 5year survival rate making the observed
result more plausible.

Example: Sign Test

A study evaluated hepatic arterial

infusion of floxuridine and cisplatin for
the treatment of liver metastases of
colorectral cancer.
Performance scores for 29 patients were
recorded before and after infusion.
Is there evidence that patients had a
better performance score after infusion?

Example: Sign Test

Patient

Before
After
Differen
(B)
(A)
ce (A
Patient
Infusion Infusion B)

Before
After
Differen
(B)
(A)
ce (A
Infusion Infusion B)

-1

16

17

18

-1

19

20

-1

21

22

23

24

10

-1

25

11

26

12

27

13

-1

28

14

-2

29

Sign Test

The sign test looks at the number of (+)

and (-) differences amongst the nonzero
paired differences.
A preponderance of +s or s can
indicate that some type of change has
occurred.
If in reality there is no change as a
result of infusion we expect +s and s
to be equally likely to occur, i.e. P(+) =
P(-) = .50 and the number of each
observed follows a binomial distribution.

Example: Sign Test

Given these results do we have

evidence that performance scores
of patients generally improves
following infusion?

Need to look at how likely the

observed results are to be produced
by chance variation alone.

17 nonzeros differences, 11
Example: Sign Test
+s 6 s

Before
After
Differen
(B)
(A)
ce (A
Patient
Infusion Infusion B)

Before
After
Differen
(B)
(A)
ce (A
Infusion Infusion B)

-1

16

17

18

-1

19

20

-1

21

22

23

24

10

-1

25

11

26

12

27

13

-1

28

14

-2

29

Patient

+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+

+
+

Example: Sign Test

If there is truly no change in performance as a

result of infusion the number of +s has a
binomial distribution with n = 17 and
p = P(+) = .50.
We have observed 11 +s amongst the 17 nonzero performance differences.
How likely are we to see 11 or more +s out 17?
P(X > 11) = .166 for a binomial n = 17, p = .50
There is 16.6% chance we would see this many
improvements by dumb luck alone, therefore we
are not convinced that infusion leads to
improvement
(Remember less than .05 or a 5% chance is what
we are looking for statistical significance)

Example 2: Sign Test

Resting Energy Expenditure (REE) for
Patient with Cystic Fibrosis
A researcher believes that patients with
cystic fibrosis (CF) expend greater energy
during resting than those without CF. To
obtain a fair comparison she matches 13
patients with CF to 13 patients without CF
on the basis of age, sex, height, and weight.
She then measured there REE for each
pair of subjects and compared the results.

Example 2: Sign Test

There are
11 +s & 2
s
out of n = 13
paired
differences.

Example 2: Sign Test

The probability of seeing this many +s is

small. We conclude that when comparing
individuals with cystic fibrosis to healthy
individuals of the same gender and size that
in general those with CF have larger resting
energy expenditure (REE) (p = .0112).