The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and

Tsunami: Lessons for Australia and

Indonesia?

The tsunami, seen crashing into

homes in Natori, Miyagi prefecture. AP

Prof. Phil R. Cummins

Research School of Earth Sciences, ANU &
Geoscience Australia

Outline
Earthquakes and tsunamis: What causes them,
and why are they so dangerous?
The 2011 Tohoku, Japan, Earthquake: What
makes it so special, and so dangerous?
Why might we expect such an earthquake to
occur in Indonesia?
What might happen if it did?
Earthquake
What can we do about it?
Prediction?

Acknowledgements
ANU
ITB

(E. Saygin, R. Benevente, A. Koulali, I. Gunawan, et. al)

(I. Meilano, H. Latief, B. Pranata, Zulfakriza, S. Widiyantoro, A.
Nugroho, et.

al)

Badan Geologi
(A. Omang, S. Hidayati, A. Cipta, Surono, et. al)
Geoscience Australia (H. Ghasemi, N. Horspool, D. Robinson, et al.)
BMKG
(A. Rudyanto, Suhardjono, P. Maesworo, P. Harjadi, et al.)
LIPI
(H. Harjono, D. Natawidjaja, E. Yulianto, I. Rafliana, et al.)
AusAID
(T. Dhu, J. Griffin, R. Hadikusuma et al.)
3

Plate tectonics: Driver of Earthquakes & Tsunamis

Earthquakes
Illuminate Earths
Tectonic Plate
Boundaries

Earthquakes
1960-1995
(NASA)

(Mike Sandiford, U. Melb)

4

Plate Boundary

Intraplate

Earthquake Size
Magnitude

Energy
(kg TNT)

20,000

A hydrogen bomb
600,000 similar to Hiroshima

20
million

30 hydrogen bombs

600
million

1,000 hydrogen
bombs

20
billion

Enough energy top

boil 10,000 litres of
water for every
person on earth

Equivalent to

A small atomic

(www.teara.govt.nz)
5

Large vs. Deadly Earthquakes

Largest earthquakes

Other deadly earthquakes are

not as large, but occur near
population centers.
Other Recent
Deadly
Earthquakes

Of the ten largest recorded earthquakes, 9 are

subduction zone (megatrhust) events, and 8
have caused large tsunamis. Almost all fatalities
are associated with the tsunami.

Magn
itude

Fatalitie
s*
(Ground
Shaking
)

2010 Haiti

7.0

316000

2008 Wenchuan

7.9

87587

2005 Pakistan

7.6

80361

2003 Iran

6.6

31000

2001 India

7.7

20023

1999 Turkey

7.9

17118

2006 Java

6.3

5749

1995 Kobe

6.9

5530

2009 Padang

7.5

1117

* US Geological Survey
6

Tsunami Generation & Shoaling

In the past decade, tsunamis have caused one of the

most deadly (2004 IOT) and the most costly (2011
Tohoku) natural disasters in human history
Event

Fatalities

2004 Sumatra
2011 Tohoko
2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

Economic Loss
227,898

$14 billion

15,703

$235 billion

2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami

The 2011 Tohoku, Japan Earthquake

What made the 2011 Tohoku so

unusual and dangerous?
1. It was far larger than scientists had
anticipated (mag. 9 vs. mag. 8), so
people were unprepared.
2. It had extremely high slip at shallow
depth, leading to very efficient
tsunami generation
3. Most of the slip was confined to a very
compact rupture area, leading to
generation of unusually strong ground
motion.
9

2011 Tohoku EQ: Bigger than Expected

How Do We Know Where Giant

Earthquakes Wont Occur?
Okal & Stein (2006)
2009

2011

Nocorrelationbetweenplateconvergenceandearthquakemagnitude.Therewasa
suggestionthatoldplatesdonotproducegiantearthquakes,butsince2011weknowthis
isnttrueeither.

(Answer: We dont)

2011 Tohoku EQ: High slip at shallow depth

Slip Behaviour of Subduction Zone

Megathrust
Slow Slip
Events

St
ab

ly
s

lid
sli ing/
p
slo
w

Fully locked?

Modified from Baba et al., 2011

2011 Tohoku EQ: High slip at shallow depth

2011 Tohoku Earthquake Rupture

Models Very High Slip Near Trench
Tsunami waveform inversion
(Satake et al., 2013)

Seismic waveform inverion

(Lay et al., 2011)

2011 Tohoku EQ: High slip at shallow depth

Large Near-Trench Slip Revealed by Repeat Bathymetry
Survey in the Japan Trench

Fujiwara et al., 2011, in preparation

2011 Tohoku EQ: Compact rupture area

The rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku is an only 300 km long, much less
than events of comparable size, and resulting in strong ground motion
throughout NE Japan.

(NEID http://www.bosai.go.jp)

Kurahashi &
Irikura (2011)
SMGA1: 49 MPa
SMGA2: 24 MPa
SMGA3: 30 MPa
SMGA4: 16 MPa
SMGA5: 26 MPa

(Wells & Coppersmith, 1994)

14

Why might we expect such an

earthquake to occur in Indonesia?
Some aspects of the tectonic
environments of NE Japan are similar to
Indonesia
Slip distributions of historic earthquakes
suggest slip occurs near the trench
We would be remiss not to.

15

Japan and Indonesia: Similar Subduction Zones

Warm

SW Japan/Sumatra vs. NE Japan/Java

(Hyndman & Peacock, 2003)

Cold

(Grevemeyer & Tiwari, 2006)

Great earthquakes dont occur with cold subduction because:

1) Down-dip seismogenic limit constrained by serpentinized
mantle
2) Up-dip limit was thought constrained by a deep 150C
smectite-illite transition to from stably to unstably sliding
clays (prior to Saffer & Marone, 2003)

The Java megathrust does experience

seismic slip near the trench

What might happen an event similar

to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
occurred in the Java Trench?

Fujii et al. (2011) tsunami source model shifted to:

Scenario 1: south of west Java
Scenario 2: south of Bali

Inundation at Ishinomaki

The city of Ishinomaki, north of Sendai

was chosen because it was particularly
hard hit by the tsunami. Parts of the city
experienced waves several metres in
height.

00.51

(Japan Geospatial Information Agency)

South of Java Tsunami Scenario

Cilacap Local Inundation

Initial sea surface

displacement over 20 m
near trench axis

Shoaling results in wave of

7-10 m height impacting a
300 km section of south
Java coast

21

Off Bali Tsunami

Scenario

Bali Regional

Timor Sea
Kuta local

22

Potential Tsunami Impacts on

Ports in Northwest
Australia
Ports on the northwest
Australian coast, such as
Dampier and Port Hedland,
are major conduits for iron
or and LNG exports

Dampier
Port facilities Port Hedland
and shipping can be
affected by strong
currents even when
tsunami heights are
small.
23

2011 Tohoku Earthquake Ground

Motions Translated to off Java

Jakarta
Tokyo
24

2011 Tohoku Earthquake Ground

Motions Translated to off Bali

Surabaya
Tokyo
25

Comparison with recent high-fatality

earthquakes
USGS Pager

Event

This study

{
{

Damage

MMI VII

MMI VIII

MMI IX

Resilient

Moderate

Mod/heavy Heavy

V. Heavy

Vulnerable

Mod/heavy

Heavy

V. Heavy

V. Heavy

MMI X

2010 Haiti

(M 7.0)

598k

2,030k

908k

2011 Tohoku

(M 9.0)

34,740k

5,816k

257k

2010 Wenchuan (M7.9)

4,006k

1,245k

528k

2k

29,747k

25,642k

6,313k

121k

10,676k

10,055k

3,293k

58k

???? Java
(M9.0)
???? Bali

(M9.0)

118k

Exposure to MMI 9 similar to Haiti EQ

Ground motions at MMI 8 and 9 have much higher exposure than any
recent earthquake
26

Spectral Accelerations
Tokyo vs. Jakarta
Tokyo and Jakarta are at similar distances
from the actual and scenario events,
respectively. Both Tokyo and Jakarta
occupy sedimentary basins, so it makes
sense to compare the accelerations
recorded in Tokyo to the 500-year design
spectrum for Jakarta specified in the
Indonesian building code SNI-1726-2002:
Some Tokyo accelerations are well above
the linear elastic design spectrum of SNI1726-2002, indicating that even
engineered structures could be damaged
Most residential structures are not
engineered, and so are likely to
experience even more damage.
27

Better Building Practices

2011 Tohoku Earthquake: A Spectacular Example of Seismically
Resilient Building Response to Earthquake Shaking

28

Non-engineered Buildings in Indonesia

Most residential construction in west
Java is masonry construction that is
not engineered to the Indonesian
Building Code.

2005 Nias earthquake damage

(W. Sengara)
29

Tohoku Actual vs. Java Trench Hypothetical:

Summary
Were an event like
the 2011 Tohoku earthquake to occur
on the Java Trench, it would result in major tsunami
inundation and high ground motion over large sections of
Java and/or Bali.
A major tsunami would be generated that would impact several
hundred km of the south Java coast and/or Bali, causing major
inundation of towns & cities such as Cilacap and Kuta.
The ground motion generated could exceed the seismic
requirements of the current building code, potentially damaging
engineered structures, not to mention the many residential
structures that are not engineered.

The off Bali scenario could generate a tsunami large

enough to impact ports along Australias northwestern
coast, possible causing substantial economic loss.
30

Concluding Remarks
Until we know better, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake &
tsunami should be used as a maximum credible
megathrust earthquake scenario in hazard assessment.

2011 Tohoku earthquake scenario far exceeds other previously

considered impact scenarios at least for Java and Tonga.
Scaling relations are an issue its not enough just to consider
maximum magnitude, for either earthquake or tsunami.

What return period to consider and how do we prepare

for such high impact, long return period events?

31

Verification of event potential

Geologic evidence for prehistoric

tsunamis
Interseismic
subsidence

Coseismic
subsidence

& uplift

Tsunami
Deposits

(Photos from D. Natawidjaja, R.

Bilham, and K. Jankaew et al.)

Verification of event potential

Seafloor GPS measurements of neartrench strain accumulation

(Sato etl a., 2011)

33

Turbidite Chronology of
Prehistoric Earthquakes

(Goldfinger et al., 2012)

34

Better Building Practices

Earthquakes vs. Public Health

Spence 2007

Advances in health have resulted in substantial declines in mortality

rates in both developed and developing countries.

Earthquake fatalities continue to declined in developed countries

but are increasing in developing ones.

36

Jakarta Microzonation Project

Led by Prof. Masyhur Irsyam ITB, invovling PU, BMKG, DKI
Will attempt to estimate ground motion levels to be expected in Jakarta

37

Conclusions
The kind of disaster that could be caused by a giant Java
Trench megathrust earthquake is one both Australia and
Indonesia should be concerned about:
Indonesia: Many through both building collapse and tsunami
inundation, huge setback in economic development
Australia: Potentially many fatalities in Bali, and large loss in
export income due to damage to ports/shipping

Both Australia and Indonesia can better understand and

prepare for this hazard through joint research on the
Java Trench megathrust.

38