World After Oil Depletion

Facts, Consequences and Alternatives

Presenters: Pranati, Arunava,

Arun

The Oil Age

Accelerated

growth in
20th century due to
discovery and use of oil

Rise

of US as a superpower
attributed to plentiful of oil resources

About

90% of vehicular fuel comes

from petroleum resources

Oil Divide
The

difference
between oil rich
countries and those
with deficiency of oil
resources

Oil

rich countries
enjoy high economic
prosperity (eg Middle
East, US, Canada)

World GDP and Oil Production

growth
GDP

almost follows the same trend as

Oil production growth (factor of 2.5)

Hubbert Peak Theory

Predict

that the production curves of nonrenewing resources approximate a bell

curve- rises rapidly, to reach a peak
and then declines

Makes

predictions based on prior discovery

rates and anticipated production rates

When

peak of production is passed,

production rates enter an irreversible decline

Production peak in the US

Production

peaked in the
1970s and went
on a decline
Recent

advances
in extraction
technologies
has led to
increases

Hubbert Peak Curves of nonOPEC countries

Statistics about oil usage

Estimated

1.3 trillion barrels of

provenoilreserve left in the world's
major fields
At present rates of consumption (89
million barrels/day)- sufficient to last
40 years.
By 2040, production levels may be
down to 15 million barrels per day
around 20% of what we currently
consume.
Out of largest 21 fields, 9 are in decline

Highest

proved oil reserves are in

Venezuela Saudi Arabia, Canada and
Iran

Inaccuracies of Data
Many

oil producing nations

manipulate oil reserves data for
political reasons

Oil

companies want to increase

their net worth, producer countries
want to increase their independent
stature and consumer countries
want to foster a sense of security

New Discoveries of Oil

The

peak of world oilfield discoveries

occurred in 1965 at around 55 billion
barrels/year
Ever since, the rate of new oil field
discovery has remained constant at
10-15 billion barrels/year
It is pretty clear that there is not much
chance of finding any significant quantity of
new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil
is going to be expensive.
Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former

Consequences of oil
depletion
Rise

in food prices
Recession
Decline in industrial growth, GDP
Greater competition and
animosity between nations

Global Economic
Catastrophe
Recession

due to
decrease in
Industrial
productionlower number of
jobs

Developed

countries are
already facing a
stagnation of
GDP growth rate

Rising Food Prices

Higher

equipment fuel
cost drives costs
higher
Higher

transportation
costs increase
retail costs

Escalation of Wars

Growing

competition and animosity

among nations for oil

Nations

will launch increasing number

wars against each other for the
conquest of remaining oil resources

Wars/ Economic Turmoil related

to Oil
Chaco

War
Oil embargoes of 1970
(coincided with US Peak oil)
Gulf War
Iraq War
Sudan and South Sudan war

Mitigation of Peak Oil

Need

to find alternatives at least 1020 years before the calculated peak,

and phase out the use of petroleum.

Energy

conservation, fuel substitution

and the use of unconventional oil

Iceland

was the first country to

suggest transitioning to 100%
renewable energy in 1998

Immediate solution to global crisis:

Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)
Crude

oil inventories held by a country to

safeguard the economy and national
security in the face of a global oil crisis

US

holds approx 4 billion barrels as

strategic reserves

Indian

strategic oil reserves will last just

for 2 weeks Rs1150 crore plan
announced in Aug 2015 to build strategic
reserves

Recent interest Unconventional Oil

Heavy

Oil, Tar Sands and Oil Shales

Limitations

include difficulty and

expense of extraction and extremely
polluting

Alternative energy
Nuclear

energy
(although limitations
of fuel availability and
contamination)

China

preparing for
post oil era by building
pebble bed reactors
which uses high
temperature gas to
crack steam to
produce hydrogen

Emphasis

on
renewable
energy like wind/
solar/ tidal
energy

Solar powered Aircraft- Impulse

2 (2014)

Experimental

stage- Proof of
Concept for the future?

Proposed Hydrogen
economy
Hydrogen

when
burned with
Oxygen is a zeroemission fuel

Used

for producing
Ammonia for
fertilizers (instead
of chemical
fertilisers) and fuel
cells in vehicles

Transition to a Hydrogen Economy

Currently in R&D phase

Nov 15, 2015: Toyota launches

first hydrogen fuel cell car

Biofuels
Ethanol

and biodiesel can be produced

from corn, sugar and the like

Automobile

companies producing
flexfuel vehicles to be compatible with
biofuel (eg GM)

Food vs Fuel debate

Dilemma

regarding diverting
farmland/ crops to biofuels
production- decreasing Food supply
and increasing food prices