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2.

SEISMIC SOURCE PARAMETERS

The Bible contains several descriptions of earthquakes. One of them, taken


from Samuel 17 gives the following description of these phenomena:

And there was trembling in the host, in the field and among all the people.
The garrison and the spoilers also trembled and the earth quaked, so it was
a very great trembling

What is seismology ?
The word seismology originates from the Greek language:

Seismos
Logos

earthquake
science

The exact translation of this would be:

the science of earthquakes

SEISMOLOGY
The science of elastic (seismic) waves

1. Their origin - earthquakes, explosions


2. Their propagation through the earths interior
3. Their recording and interpretation

APPLIED SEISMOLOGY INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING:

1. EXPLORATION SEISMOLOGY
- Search for economically significant resources,
eg oil, coal, minerals, etc
2. ENGINERING SEISMOLOGY
-Depth to bedrock, sink holes, dams, runways,
and other construction applications
3. TECTONIC SEISMOLOGY
- Study of earthquakes, volcano's, plate movements etc
4. MILITARY SEISMOLOGY
- Detection of submarines, nuclear explosions
5. MINE SEISMOLOGY
- Study of mine induced seismicity

Some ancient mythical and popular beliefs

Xhosas believed that there is a snake under the ground and that
when it moves the earth shakes
The western world had Atlas with the world on his shoulders, every time
he moved the earth shook
The Indians believed that an elephant carries the world on his back and
that every time it went for a wee the earth shook

The Japanese believed in a large cat fish under the ground who
shook the whole earth and a small cat fish that caused the after shakes

The subject we will be discussing is mine induced seismicity,


its source parameters and interpretation of recorded seismicity

INDUCED SEISMICITY

An increase in seismicity in seismic areas and


generation of seismicity in a-seismic areas has been
observed as a result of:
-Deep underground mining
-Large scale surface quarrying
-Filling of reservoirs behind high dams
-Injection of fluids in rocks at depth
-Removal of fluids from subsurface formations
-Detonation of large underground explosions

This type of seismicity is called induced seismicity

The primary requirement for induced seismicity is human


activity where the rocks are in pre-stressed condition

Largest mine tremors

Date

Magnitude

Place

13/03/1989

ML = 5.6

Potash mining district, South Germany

23/06/1975

ML = 5.2

As above

07/04/1977

ML = 5.2

Klerksdorp, South Africa

24/03/1977

ML = 4.5

Lubin Copper Mining District, Poland

March 2005

ML= 5.4? Klerksdorp, South Africa

MONITORING

1908

First seismological observatory Bohum, Ruhr, Germany


In operation until World War II

1910

Witwatersrand, South Africa, a single seismograph

1920

First seismic network, Upper Silesia Coal Basin


4 stations, one underground at Rozbark Coal Mine
Still in operation

1939

First seismic network in South Africa, Witwatersrand


5 seismographs

----------------------------------------------1970

KMMA Regional Seismic Network, Klerksdorp,


South Africa

7 stations 1970
20 stations 1978
24 stations 1981
29 stations 1988

Area 107 km2

Above magnitude 3.5

Above magnitude 4.0

ML = 1.45log D + 0.12

where D is duration (in seconds) of the recorded motions

Magnitude of this event is 3.8

ML = 1.45Log D + 0.12
D duration

Log Mo = 1.5 ML + 9.1 [Nm]

( Hanks & Kanamori 1979)

Log E = 1.5 ML 1.2 [MJ]

(Gutenberg & Richter 1956)

Date: 31 December 1988


Time: 14h50m02s
ML = 3.8
Mo = 6.3E+14 Nm
E = 3.2E+04 MJ

PROBLEMS

Over 24 000 people underground at one time

Probability of a seismic related accident

09h- 10h probability 0.09


12h 13h probability 0.07
15h 16 h probability 0.10

20h -21h probability 0.14


22h- 23h probability 0.32

The aim of seismic monitoring is to record the rockmass


response to mining activities

Magnitude 4.6
TOTAL CLOSURE
WITH F/W HEAVE

42 stations by the end of 1993

1972 1988 Magnitude range


From 0.8

1989 1999 magnitude distribution


From 0.5

2. SEISMIC SOURCE PARAMETERS

1. MAGNITUDE CONCEPT
2. SEISMIC MOMENT
3. SEISMIC ENERGY
4. STRESS ESTIMATES

Today with the modern digital seismic networks the magnitude is calculated
only after the seismic moment and energy are calculated in the process of
spectral analysis.

For example the PMC local magnitude is calculated from the following formulae:
ML = 0.272log E + 0.392logMo - 4.63

Single event

The Council for Geosciences runs the National South African Seismic Network.
Their magnitudes are based on the maximum recorded amplitude.
The formulae used to calculate this magnitude is:
ML = log (A) + 1.11LogD +0.00189D -2.09
Where:
A- maximum recorded amplitude on a seismogram after applying a
correction for the instrument in nanometers (10E- 09 m)
D hipocentral distance in km

Mw = 0.667 x log Mo 6.01


PMC magnitude = 0.272 x log E + 0.392 x log Mo 4.63
Where:
Mw moment magnitude
Mo seismic moment
E seismic energy
It is not possible to convert one into other
magnitude
accurately but it is possible to estimate
their relation

PMC relation between


seismic
moment and magnitude

Relation between seismic


moment
and moment magnitude

PMC
magnitude

PMC magnitude is about 0.4 or 0.5 lower from the moment


magnitude
so the -0.9 moment magnitude is equal to -1.4 local
magnitude.

Spectral analysis has become a standard technique used to estimate the source
parameters of seismic events recorded by mine digital seismic networks.
Simple source models of circular dislocations are used for the interpretation of
seismic spectra and for the purpose of deriving source parameters.
Seismic moment, corner frequency and seismic energy are inverted from
the spectra that are corrected for:
the instrumental, distance and attenuation effects of each
waveform and then averaged.

Seismogram

Signal as we assume at the source

The seismic moment (Mo) is a measure of earthquake strength.


It is defined using a pure shear source model. This is not totally correct
as it will be presented later with the events recorded at the mines.
Seismic moment is defined as:
Mo = A
Where: is the shear modulus at the source
is the average displacement across the fault
A is the fault area
Such definition implies that theoretically the value of seismic moment could be
calculated if there would be access to the source area. Such cases are very rare.

In case of the spectral analysis the seismic moment is calculated from the
following relation:
Mo = (4oco3RCo)/(FcRcSc)
Where: o is the density of source material
co is either P-wave velocity or the S-wave velocity at the source
Rc is the distance between the source and the receiver
c is the low frequency level, this is a spectral parameter
Fc accounts for the radiation of either P or S waves
Cc accounts for the free-surface amplification of either P or S wave
amplitudes
Sc is the site correction for either P or S waves

From the spectrum two independent source parameters are calculated or


rather estimated

Seismic moment Mo [Nm]


Seismic energy

E [J]

The estimate of the seismic source parameters is based on number of


assumptions:

1. We know the source location


2. We know the seismic wave velocity
3. We know the rock mass density
4. We are able to correct the spectra for attenuation and scattering
effects along the travel paths of seismic waves
5.

We know the site correction value

Seismic energy and electric energy comparison

Magnitude

Electric energy consumption for a


town with 100 000 inhabitants

1.6

For 1 second

6.8

For 1 year (290 million KWh)

8.7

For 270 years

In comparison a tropical hurricane can release in twenty four hours


as much energy as a rich, medium size nation as Britain or France
uses in a year.

Seismic energy and energy released during TNT explosions


Magnitud
e

Released energy
[J]

Remarks

1kg

-1.9

90

U/g explosion

1 ton

0.2

1.3E+05

U/g explosion

1 kt

2.3

1.8E+08

U/g explosion

20 kt

3.2

4.0E+11

U/g explosion
20kt = atom bomb dropped at Hiroshima

20 kt

2.1

8.9E+07

Explosion in the air as in Hiroshima

1.0 Mt

4.5

3.5E+11

U/g explosion

2.0Mt

4.6

5.0E+11

U/ g explosion

5.0Mt

5.0

2.0E+12

U/ g explosion

10Mt

5.2

4.0E+12

U/ g explosion
Largest recorded U/g event in underground
mine

100Mt

5.9

4.5E+20

U/ g explosion

1000Mt

6.6

5.0E+21

U/ g explosion

Exploded amount of
TNT

Stress release estimates

There are four different estimates of stress release in use

1. Static stress drop average difference between the initial and


final stress levels over the fault plane
2. Dynamic stress drop difference between the initial stress and the
kinetic friction level
3. Apparent stress quantity based on the radiated energy
and seismic moment
4. Brune stress drop when a complete stress release is assumed

And back to the 2.0 magnitude event

Date
Time
XYZ
Magnitude
Moment
Energy
Stress drop

Date 27/02/2004
X=23931
Y=-12717
Z=-500m
Magnitude 2.0
Energy = 1.25E+07 J
Moment =7.9E+11 Nm
Stress = 0.9 MPa

Seismic source parameters are they measured or estimated values?

a
Mic

Dykes

Fau
lt
ult
a
F
est
w
h
t
Sou

Ce
n tr
al F
aul
t

Date

24/2/2004

Time

23:15:55

-Z

Error

Mag

Mo

No of
Stations

23865 13014

258

38

1.90E+07

8.80E+11

23871 12526

787

16

2.1

3.90E+07

1.00E+12

23873 12534

788

16

2.10E+07

9.00E+11

23882 12589

723

28

2.1

4.00E+07

9.40E+11

23929 12632

652

33

2.1

4.60E+07

9.20E+11

24108 12678

545

42

2.1

3.70E+07

1.00E+11

24028 12643

581

40

2.1

3.00E+07

9.70E+11

23997 12722

508

44

2.1

2.00E+07

9.80E+11

10

23931 12717

500

46

1.40E+07

7.40E+11

11

-Y

No 3

10

11

No 3

10

11

No

10

11

X coordinate

No

10

11

Y coordinate

No

10

11

Z
Z [m]

10

11

Source parameters depend on software version

Different versions of seismic software

4 years of data

Data recalculated with latest version

Energy index time history based poor quality data

No of
events

Cumulative energy
[J]

Cumulative moment
[Nm]

9.2.1

1662

1.10E+07 (100%)

2.05E+12

(100%)

10.1.3

1662

7.39E+05

(7%)

2.64E+13

(1287%)

135

10.1.4

1662

2.95E+05

(3%)

6.80E+12

(331%)

67

Latest
Jmts

1758

6.70E+05

(6%)

2.68E+13

(1307)

138

Software
version

No of events above 1.0

Version 9.2.1

Version 10.1.3

Version 10.1.4

Version Java

Cumulated seismic energy and seismic moment

Moment magnitude values depending on software version

Software version
Magnitude
range

9.2.1

10.1.3

10.1.4

Jmts

-2.0<M<-1.5

-1.5<M<-1.0

46

37

38

39

-1.0<M<-0.5

515

373

371

371

-0.5<M<0.0

620

611

609

607

0.0<M<0.5

377

345

368

353

0.5<M<1.0

98

157

206

151

1.0<M<1.5

79

66

80

1.0<M<2.0

55

57

2.0<M<2.5

V 9.2.1

V 10.1.3

V 9.2.1

V 10.1.3

Kanamori (1977) estimate of radiated seismic energy (for larger size


events):
Energy = Moment/20000
Guttenberg and Richter (1956) estimate of seismic energy:
Log E = 1.5M -1.2 where the energy is in MJ.

According to

Energy [J]

Version 9.2.1

2.1E+05

Version 10.1.3

1.4E+03

Version 10.1.4

6.3E+02

Jmts

1.1E+03

Kanamori estimate

5.0E+05

Guttenberg and Richter


estimate

7.1E+05

Energy release estimate for magnitude 0.7

Moment
Magnitude

Kanamori
estimate

Guttenberg &
Richter
estimate

PMC average

1.3

5.0E+06 J

5.6E+06 J

9.7 E+05 J

1.9

2.0

9.6E+06 J

5.0E+07 J

Why PMC average?

Average monthly energy release by events magnitude 0.5

Maximum 1.0 E+05 J


Minimum 1.0 E+04 J

How good is the recorded seismic data?


Reliable seismic data (XYX and source parameters)
is the one that was recorded inside of the seismic network
The seismic source is surrounded by seismic
sensors ( also located below and above)

138029 events
In this:
Events above 0.0 5189 events
Events above 1.0 - 135 events
PMC seismic data base

Network fully installed only from January 2004


This reduces the data by 30751 (22%)

Only 30731 events inside (22% of total)


In this:
Events above 0.0 889 events (17% of total)
Events above 1.0 - 15 events (11% of total)
Seismicity recorded inside of the network

Only 3645 events inside (3% of total)


In this:
Events above 0.0 224 events (4% of total)
Events above 1.0 2 events (1% of total)
Exclude events locating close to the network borders
and accept events recorded with minimum 6 stations

Seismic data base consists of unreliable data.


This means that the events XYZ coordinates
as well as their source parameters are not accurate
and might be very different from the real values.
If we understand this limitation of the data we still might
be successful with its interpretation.
Unfortunately that still is not the end of bad news

Seismic source parameters are they measured or estimated values?

Seismogram

Signal as we assume at the source

In case of the spectral analysis the seismic moment is calculated from the
following relation:
Mo = (4oco3RCo)/(FcRcSc)
Where: o is the density of source material
co is either P-wave velocity or the S-wave velocity at the source
Rc is the distance between the source and the receiver
c is the low frequency level, this is a spectral parameter
Fc accounts for the radiation of either P or S waves
Cc accounts for the free-surface amplification of either P or S wave
amplitudes
Sc is the site correction for either P or S waves

From the spectrum two independent source parameters are calculated or


rather estimated

Seismic moment Mo [Nm]


Seismic energy

E [J]

The estimate of the seismic source parameters is based on number of


assumptions:

1. We know the source location


2. We know the seismic wave velocity
3. We know the rock mass density
4. We are able to correct the spectra for attenuation and scattering
effects along the travel paths of seismic waves
5. We know the site correction value

And then the source parameter values change depending on:


1. Geometry (the location of event in relation to the sensors)

And then the source parameter values change depending on:


1. Geometry (the location of event in relation to the sensors)
2. With time ( with the caving process progress) the rock mass changes
so for example the seismic velocities also change
3. New software new source parameters

Estimation is an approximation of a quality based on information available


It is an educated guess

There is a lot of examples that an estimate might lead towards a disaster


(sometimes large sometimes small)

Example:
John is planning a wedding party
Today you can hire professionals wedding manager and his team
John sees this option as expensive I can do it myself
But there is a lot involved
- Catering
- Flower arrangements
- Drinks
- Music
- Photographer
- Transport and accommodation arrangements. and probably much more
But there is still time so it will be OK
Time passes and John is very busy and time is running out

A day or two before the wedding party John remembers that he needs to
hire some tables and chairs
There will be 240 people attending
John phones around and find out the following:
-Standard table size sitting comfortably 4 people is 200cm by 90cm
(0.45m per person)
-Easy 1.8 m seats 4 people, for 240 people I will need 60 tables and the
price is so and so
-He then remembers that some time ago he was driving by a hire company
and he asked for prices and yes they were much cheaper and the tables looked
OK for sizeJohn phones and orders the tables
On the wedding day (for sure Sunday) the tables arrive but they are 180cm by 90cm.

Johns problem:
The standard 200cm by 90cm table times 60 gives area of 108m
The table that arrived is 180cm by 90cm times 60 gives an area of 97.2m
Comfortable sitting of each invited person requires 0.45m per person
John is short of 10.8m table surface that is place to seat comfortably 24 people
Bad luck? No but it is there:
-Remember it is Sunday (all places are closed)
-And all quests arrive
Estimate of the table size resulted in a disaster for John

3. Seismic source parameters part 2

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