The automobile sector in India has come a long way.

This
sector has reported high growth rate from 26 percent to
a worst negative growth in some segments during past
years. Indian auto sector is one of the most vibrant
industry. The automobile industry is one of Indias major
sectors; accounting for 22% of the countrys
manufacturing GDP. The Indian auto industry, comprising
passenger cars, two-wheelers, three-wheelers and
commercial vehicles, is the seventh-largest in the world with
an annual production of 17.5 million vehicles, of
which 2.3 million are exported [1].Indian Auto market has
the potential to dominate the Global auto industry,
provided, a conducive environment is created for potential
innovators to come up with new pilot projects.
For the year 2012-2013, automobile sector has shown a
sluggish growth citing high ownership costs like excise
duty, cost of registration, fuel costs, road tax and slow rural
income growth. Over the next few years, solid but
cautious growth is expected due to improved affordability ,
rising incomes and untapped markets. All these give a
promising opportunity for automobile manufactures in India.
According to Macquaire equities research,
passenger vehicles sales is expected to double in the next
four years and growth is anticipated to be higher than
16 percent from the past 10 years [2]. In this paper, we have
made an attempt to forecast the sales, production and
export trend for Indian automobile industry over next three
years.
II RESEARCH OBJECTIVE & METHODOLOGY
The objective of this research is to find out the growth of
Indian automobile industry and to report the forecasted
values for the next three years (2013-14 to 2015-16) using
statistical technique (Graphical method with linear

200102
669719 162508 675116 146671 50088
11870
200203
723330 203697 707198 190682 70828
12255
200304
989560 275040 902096 260114 126249
17432
200405
1209876 353703 1061572 318430 160677
29940
200506
1309300 391083 1143076 351041 170193
40600
200607
1544850 520000 1379698 467882 189347
49766
200708
1,777,583 549,006 1,549,882 490,494
218,401 58,994
200809
1,838,593 416,870 1,552,703 384,194
335,729 42,625
200910
2,357,411 567,556 1,951,333 532,721
446,145 45,009
201011
2,982,772 760,735 2,501,542 684,905
444,326 74,043
201112
3,146,069 929,136 2,618,072 809,532
507,318 92,663
201213
3,233,561 831,744 2,686,429 793,150
554,686 79,944

An attempt has been made to understand and

analyze the current and future trend in Indian
automobile industries.
Secondary data collected from website and
research publications have been used. Forecasted
values have been
calculated for the period 2013-14 to 2015-16 using
statistical approach. Despite various ups and
downs in the
past years, our experiments show positive growth
in all segments. The segment wise average
forecasted growth
rate for the next three years are given in table 8.
TABLE 8
SEGMENT WISE AVERAGE FORECASTED GROWTH
RATE
Segment Average growth rate (%)
Production trend-passenger vehicle 7.88
Production trend-commercial vehicle 7.23
Domestic sales trend-passenger vehicle 6.00
Domestic sales trend-commercial vehicle 6.01
Export trend-passenger vehicle 7.58
Export trend-commercial vehicle 11.25