Chapter 9

Stocks and Their

Valuation
Features of Common Stock
Determining Common Stock
Values
Preferred Stock
9-1
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Facts about Common Stock

Represents ownership
Ownership implies control
Stockholders elect directors
Directors elect management
Managements goal: Maximize the stock
price

9-2
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Intrinsic Value and Stock Price

Outside investors, corporate insiders, and

analysts use a variety of approaches to
estimate a stocks intrinsic value (P0).

In equilibrium we assume that a stocks

price equals its intrinsic value.

Outsiders estimate intrinsic value to help

determine which stocks are attractive to
buy and/or sell.

Stocks with a price below (above) its

intrinsic value are undervalued
(overvalued).

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Determinants of Intrinsic Value and

Stock Prices
Managerial Actions, the Economic
Environment, Taxes, and the Political
Climate
True
Risk

Perceived
Investor Cash
Flows

Stocks
Intrinsic
Value

Perceived
Risk

Stocks
Market Price
Market Equilibrium:
Intrinsic Value = Stock
Price

9-4

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Different Approaches for Estimating

the Intrinsic Value of a Common Stock

Discounted dividend model

Corporate valuation model
P/E multiple approach
EVA approach

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Discounted Dividend Model

Value of a stock is the present value of

the future dividends expected to be
generated by the stock.
0
P

D3
D1
D2
D

...
1
2
3
(1 rs) (1 rs) (1 rs)
(1 rs)

9-6
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Constant Growth Stock

A stock whose dividends are expected to

grow forever at a constant rate, g.
D1 = D0(1 + g)1
D2 = D0(1 + g)2
Dt = D0(1 + g)t

If g is constant, the discounted dividend

formula converges to:
D0(1 g) D1

P0

rs g
rs g

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Future Dividends and Their Present

Values
$

0.25

Dt D0(1 g)t

PVDt

Dt
(1 r )t
P0 PVDt

Years (t)
9-8

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What happens if g > rs?

If g > rs, the constant growth formula

leads to a negative stock price, which
does not make sense.

The constant growth model can only be

used if:

r > g.
g is expected to be constant forever.
s

9-9
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Use the SML to Calculate the Required

Rate of Return (rs)

If rRF = 7%, rM = 12%, and b = 1.2, what

is the required rate of return on the firms
stock?
rs

= rRF + (rM rRF)b

= 7% + (12% 7%)1.2
= 13%

9-10
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Find the Expected Dividend Stream for

the Next 3 Years and Their PVs
D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6%.
0 g = 6% 1
2.12
1.8761
1.7599

2
2.247

3
2.382

rs = 13%

1.6509
9-11
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What is the stocks intrinsic value?

Using the constant growth model:
D1
$2.12

P0

rs g 0.13 0.06
$2.12

0.07
$30.29

9-12
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What is the stocks expected value,

one year from now?

D1 will have been paid out already. So,

expected P1 is the present value (as of
Year 1) of D2, D3, D4, etc.
1 D2 $2.247
P
rs g 0.13 0.06
$32.10

1 P0 (1.06) $32.10
P

Could also find expected P1 as:

9-13

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Find Expected Dividend Yield, Capital Gains

Yield, and Total Return During First Year

Dividend yield
= D1/P0 = $2.12/$30.29 = 7.0%

Capital gains yield

= (P1 P0)/P0
= ($32.10 $30.29)/$30.29 = 6.0%

Total return (rs)

= Dividend yield + Capital gains yield
= 7.0% + 6.0% = 13.0%
9-14

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What would the expected price today

be,
if g = 0?
The dividend stream would be a perpetuity.
0

rs = 13%

2.00

2.00

2.00

PMT $2.00

P0

$15.38
r
0.13

9-15
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Supernormal Growth: What if g = 30% for

3 years before achieving long-run growth
of 6%?

Can no longer use just the constant

growth model to find stock value.

However, the growth does become

constant after 3 years.

9-16
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Valuing Common Stock with Nonconstant

Growth
D0 = $2.00.
0 rs = 13% 1
g = 30%

2
g = 30%

2.600
2.301
2.647
3.045
46.114
0
54.107 =
P

3
g = 30%

3.380

3
P

4
g = 6%

4.394

4.65
8

4.658
$66.54
0.13 0.06

9-17
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Find Expected Dividend and Capital Gains

Yields During the First and Fourth Years

Dividend yield (first year)

= $2.60/$54.11 = 4.81%

Capital gains yield (first year)

= 13.00% 4.81% = 8.19%

During nonconstant growth, dividend

yield and capital gains yield are not
constant, and capital gains yield g.

After t = 3, the stock has constant growth

and dividend yield = 7%, while capital
gains yield = 6%.
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Nonconstant Growth: What if g = 0% for 3

years before long-run growth of 6%?
D0 = $2.00.
0 r = 13% 1
s
g = 0%

2
g = 0%

2.00

3
g = 0%

2.00

4
g = 6%

2.12

2.00 1.77
1.57
1.39
20.99

0
P
25.72 =

3
P

2.12
$30.29
0.13 0.06
9-19

2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a
publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Find Expected Dividend and Capital Gains

Yields During the First and Fourth Years

Dividend yield (first year)

= $2.00/$25.72 = 7.78%

Capital gains yield (first year)

= 13.00% 7.78% = 5.22%

After t = 3, the stock has constant growth

and dividend yield = 7%, while capital
gains yield = 6%.

9-20
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If the stock was expected to have negative

growth (g = -6%), would anyone buy the stock,
and what is its value?

Yes. Even though the dividends are

declining, the stock is still producing cash
flows and therefore has positive value.
0 D1 D0(1 g)
P
rs g
rs g
$2.00(0.94) $1.88

$9.89
0.13 (-0.06) 0.19

9-21
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Find Expected Annual Dividend and

Capital Gains Yields

Capital gains yield

= g = -6.00%

Dividend yield
= 13.00% (-6.00%) = 19.00%

Since the stock is experiencing constant

growth, dividend yield and capital gains
yield are constant. Dividend yield is
sufficiently large (19%) to offset negative
capital gains.
9-22

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Corporate Valuation Model

Also called the free cash flow method.

Suggests the value of the entire firm
equals the present value of the firms
free cash flows.

Remember, free cash flow is the firms

after-tax operating income less the net
Depr.and
Capital
capital
investment.
FCF
EBIT(1
T)

NOWC

amortizati
on

expenditur
es

9-23
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Applying the Corporate Valuation

Model

Find the market value (MV) of the firm, by

finding the PV of the firms future FCFs.

Subtract MV of firms debt and preferred

stock to get MV of common stock.

Divide MV of common stock by the

number of shares outstanding to get
intrinsic stock price (value).

9-24
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Issues Regarding the Corporate

Valuation Model

Often preferred to the discounted

dividend model, especially when
considering number of firms that dont
pay dividends or when dividends are hard
to forecast.

Similar to discounted dividend model,

assumes at some point free cash flow will
grow at a constant rate.

Horizon value (HVN) represents value of

firm at the point that growth becomes
constant.
9-25

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Use the Corporate Valuation Model to

Find the Firms Intrinsic Value
Given: Long-Run gFCF = 6% and WACC =
10%
0 r = 10% 1
2
3
4
-5
-4.545
8.264
15.026
398.197
416.942

10

g=
20 6%

21.2
0

21.20
530
HV3
0.10 0.06

9-26
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What is the firms intrinsic value per

share?
The firm has $40 million total in debt
and preferred stock and has 10 million
shares of common stock.
MVof equity MV of firm MV of debtandpreferred
$416.94 $40
$376.94million
Valuepershare MV of equity/#
of shares
$376.94/10
$37.69
9-27
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Firm Multiples Method

Analysts often use the following multiples

to value stocks.

P/E
P/CF
P/Sales

EXAMPLE: Based on comparable firms,

estimate the appropriate P/E. Multiply
this by expected earnings to back out an
estimate of the stock price.
9-28

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EVA Approach
EVA = Equity capital(ROE Cost of equity)
MVEquity = BVEquity + PV of all future EVAs
Value per share = MVEquity/# of shares

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Preferred Stock

Hybrid security.

However, companies can omit preferred

dividend payments without fear of
pushing the firm into bankruptcy.

Like bonds, preferred stockholders

receive a fixed dividend that must be
paid before dividends are paid to
common stockholders.

9-30
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If preferred stock with an annual dividend of $5

sells for $50, what is the preferred stocks
expected return?
D
Vp
rp
$5
$50
rp
$5
$50
0.10 10%

rp

9-31
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publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.