FMSI 1711 Office

July 30, 2015

Metropolitan Manila Earthquake Impact

Reduction Study (MMEIRS), cites many
research studies (indicating) that active
phases of the (West) Valley Faults (formerly
the Marikina Valley Faults) are
approaching and that the estimated
magnitude will be around 7 or more. But
MMEIRS also raised the possible intensity
from 7 to even 9, which could be
devastating.

MMEIRS, a Japan-funded study that was

begun in August 2002, identified the West
Valley Fault, which lies just northeast of
Manila, as the fault expected to cause the
largest impact in the metropolis. The West
Valley Fault traverses Marikina town, Pasig
going to Muntinlupa up to the south.

The Fault, other studies showed, caused at

least two major earthquakes within the last
1,400 years. No earthquake is known to
have taken place along the West Valley
Fault after the 16thcentury. But based on
the estimated return period of less than 500
years, the Fault is due to exhibit dangers
this century or even within the next few
years,

Dr. Norman Tungol of Phivolcs Geology,

Geophysics, Research and Development
Division (GGRDD) - this projection could
be within the next few years, (or) few tens
of years. He also said that even if there is
no need for the people to panic because
there is no timetable yet, dapat magprepare because its inevitable.

He confirmed that an earthquake with

intensity 8 or 9 could be expected in the
Valley Fault with a possible magnitude of
7.2 because of the lengthy fault.

Dr. Arthur Saldivar-Sali, a former UP

professor who is also now with the GeoTechnica Consultancy Group, he tends to
believe in the probability analysis of
former Phivolcs Director Raymundo
Punongbayan.

Shortly after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in

1991, Punongbayan told of a higher
probability of a major earthquake on
the Valley Fault based on its rare
movements. Since lesser energy is released
in the friction of rocks, more energy is
stored, like a rubber band, preparing for a
big snap.

The intensity may range from:

7 in Quezon City
almost 8 & 9 Marikina River and Manila
Bay,
8 at west of Metropolitan Manila
7 at other areas.
Based on the Phivolcs Earthquake Intensity
Scale (PEIS), intensity 7 is destructive,
while 8 and 9 are very destructive and
devastating, respectively.

Death toll

Rank

Magnitude

Location

7.89,018[1]

Date

Nepal

25-Apr

7.8

0Japan

30-May

7.5

0Papua New Guinea

29-Mar

7.5

0Papua New Guinea

5-May

5
6

7.3218[1]
0
7.1

7.1

Nepal

12-May

NorthernMid-Atlantic Ridge

13-Feb

0Papua New Guinea

7-May

0Indonesia

27-Feb

0SouthernMid-Atlantic Ridge

17-Jun

0
8

Solomon Islands

18-Jul

71[3]

Indonesia

27-Jul

July 30, 2015 Nagubu Batangas, Ph

Magnitude 4.2 (3:03am)
July 29, 2015 Palimbang, Sultan Kudarat,
Ph Magnitude 4.8 (2:51am)
July 25, 2015 Catarman Northern Samar,
Ph Magnitude 5.2 (4:41pm)
July 13, 2015 Santa Monica Siargao, Ph
Magnitude 6.1 (12:36am)

Safe Areas

Danger Areas

Under the Sturdy Table

Glass Window
Glass Wall
Glass Door
Under the Aircon
Beside Cabinets

The KEY to Effective

Disaster Prevention is
PLANNING.

Make sure to have fire extinguisher, first aid

kit, battery powered radio, flashlight,
whistle.
Learn how to turn off the gas, water,
electricity
Familiarize with the exit routes
Learn how to use first aid kit
Make up plan where to meet after the
earthquake

Dont Panic & Stay

Calm.

If youre indoor stay inside, if youre outside

stay outside.
DROP COVER HOLD ON
Duck under, a sturdy desk or table, and
hold onto it, protect your head with your
arms.
Stay away from furniture, windows and
lamps
Beware of falling objects,
Be alert and keep your eyes open.

Check yourself!

Be prepared for aftershocks, once shacking

stops take the fastest and safest way out.
DONT use elevators, enter damage
building,
DO check yourself and others for injuries,
check electrical lines for damages, and
control fire if present

Keep Safe Everyone. - jek