Out of Africa (or not)

The incredibly complex and mostly

true story of the origin and dispersal
of Homo sapiens throughout the
World.

There are currently two

competing theories of the origin
of anatomically modern
Homo sapiens

The Replacement model, which states that

there was a single origin for Homo sapiens
(in Africa), and these anatomically modern
humans subsequently radiated out from
Africa and replaced other species of Homo
as they came in contact with them
throughout Europe and Asia.

The Regional Continuity model, which

states that modern Homo sapiens
developed from regional populations of
archaic Homo sapiens populations that in
turn evolved from regional populations of
Homo erectus.

The replacement model of Christopher Stringer and

Peter Andrews proposes that modern humans evolved
from archaic Homo sapiens 200,000-100,000 years ago in
Africa and then some of them migrated into the rest of
the Old World replacing all of the Neanderthals and
other late archaic Homo sapiens. If this interpretation
of the fossil record is correct, all modern people share
relatively modern African ancestry. All other lines of
humans that had descended from Homo erectus
presumably became extinct. From this view, the
regional anatomical differences that we see among
humans today are recent developments--evolving only in
the last 50,000-40,000 years. This hypothesis is also
referred to as the out of Africa and the Noah's ark
model.

The regional continuity (or multiregional) model of

Milford Wolpoff at the University of Michigan proposes
that modern humans evolved more or less
simultaneously in all major regions of the Old World
from local archaic Homo sapiens populations. For
example, modern Chinese are seen as having evolved
from Chinese archaic Homo sapiens and ultimately from
Chinese Homo erectus. This would mean that the
Chinese and some other peoples in the Old World have
great antiquity in place. Advocates of this model believe
that the ultimate common ancestor of all humans was
Homo erectus in Africa more than a million years ago.
Since then, however, it is proposed that there was
sufficient gene flow between Europe, Africa, and Asia to
prevent reproductive isolation and the subsequent
evolution of distinct regional species.

Regional Continuity Model

Replacement Model

Obviously, whether you believe in one theory or

the other has a great impact on the question of
early dispersal and migration of Homo sapiens.
The replacement model necessitates long
distance dispersal and migration and adaptation
to new environments, and the multi-regional
model suggests in situ development and
adaptation over a longer period of time.

The following figure is a family tree for the

phylogenetic Class Primates. Although
somewhat out of date, it does give an idea of the
closeness of genetic relationships among the
different families and the approximate timing of
their divergence from the trunk of the primate
family tree. Although there is at least one big
problem with this particular diagram that might
cause a skeptic to question the veracity of the
whole thing.
See if you can spot the problem

(Hominidea)
(Hominoidea)

Showing Modern humans

as different branches is not
accurate--were all the same
species

Yikes!

Dispersal corridors opened out of Africa and across the

Middle East into South and East Asia during the late Pliocene.
Corridors formed primarily along coastal land masses, the
product of expanding polar ice caps and resultant drop in sealevel. Incipient development of the Red Sea rift also
established departure routes through the Middle East. The
drop in sea level in island Southeast Asia would have
connected Sumatra, Java and Borneo with the mainland.
Evolutionary analysis of fossil species indicates that large
mammals dispersed along these routes sporadically during the
late Pliocene and early Pleistocene. New fossil finds suggest
that early Homo arrived in Asia some 1.8 to 1.9 million years
ago, after departing Africa at least 100,000 years earlier.

Hominids now known as Homo erectus were found on Java,

Indonesia, in 1891, and at Zhoukoudian, near Beijing, in the
1930s. As Homo erectus was clearly more primitive than
hominid fossils known in Europe, human beings were initially
thought to have emerged in East Asia and dispersed westward.
Since the early 1960s, numerous fossils from African localities
in the eastern Rift Valley, Lake Malawi and South Africa have
demonstrated an African emergence for Homo . In the 1990s,
advances in dating methods and new finds at Dmanisi
(Georgia), Riwat and Pabbi Hills (Pakistan), Sangrian and
Mojokerto (Java) and Longgupo (China) show that early
Homo had arrived in East Asia by just after 2 million years
ago. The following map shows dispersal corridors that would
have been available due to lowered sea level in the at the
Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary.

According to the Replacement Model, there is little question

that Homo sapiens emerged in Africa, although the date of
emergence, the technological associations and the dates for
its Eurasian dispersals are debatable. Homo sapiens
originated between 200,000 and 100,000 years ago,
somewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. Some recent discoveries in
Zaire of ancient and finely crafted tool types (such as barbedbone harpoons) indicate that the technology associated with
this emergence may have been very advanced indeed,
resembling the much later Upper Paleolithic of Europe. In the
Levant, where Homo sapiens is evident about 90,000 years
ago, a more archaic Middle Paleolithic technology still held
sway. Consequently, we may not yet say whether the
European dispersal of Homo sapiens was associated with
either its emergence or a new technology.

Genetic Evidence for the

Replacement Model

Mitochondrial DNA

Y chromosomal DNA

Mitochondrial DNA
Mitochondrial DNA offers a quick-ticking molecular clock
and by comparing the number of mutations that have collected
in separate populations, geneticists can infer when the
populations split from each other.
When selected sequences of mtDNA from a group of people
representing African, Asian, Australian, Caucasian and New
Guinean ethnic groups were compared, 133 variants of
mtDNA were found. When these different mitochondrial types
were arranged into an evolutionary tree, that tree showed a
trunk splitting into two major branches.

Mitochondrial DNA
One branch consisted only of Africans, the other included
some modern Africans and some people from everywhere
else. The first branch represents the first modern humans and
forms the trunk and longest branch of the tree. The second
branch represents a subgroup of modern humans that left
Africa and later spread out to the rest of the world.

Mitochondrial DNA
It was also found that all of the mtDNA (even from far
regions of the world) was similar. This suggested that the
molecular clock has not been ticking long enough to
accumulate appreciable differences in our DNA. In other
words, our species is young.
But the African samples had the most mutations. This too
implied that the African lineage is the oldest, that all modern
humans trace their roots back to Africa.

Map illustrating the timing of the migration of

anatomically modern Homo sapiens out of Africa,
based on mtDNA evidence.

Y chromosomal DNA
An international study of Y chromosomal DNA shows that
East Asian populations migrated out of Africa and suggests
that little or no interbreeding of Homo erectus and Homo
sapiens occurred after the migration.
The goal of the study was to test the hypothesis that the
common origin of human populations is in Africa, and also to
see if there was evidence of archaic admixture of Homo
erectus and Homo sapiens.

Y chromosomal DNA
The researchers tested 12,127 male individuals from 163 East
Asian populations. The Y chromosome was used because it
remains the same when passed from father to son. The Y
chromosome is was examined because it does not recombine,
and so a lot more evolutionary information is available than is
found in mitochondrial DNA.
Researchers from China, Indonesia, England and the U.S.
collected samples, genotyped the Y chromosomes and
analyzed the results. They looked for specific mutations at
three locations on the Y chromosome and found that every
one of the 12,127 samples typed, carried one of these three
polymorphisms.

Y chromosomal DNA
These three markers can be used to test the completeness of
the replacement of modern humans of African origin in East
Asia, because finding a male not carrying one of the three
polymorphisms would be indicative of a potential ancient
origin and possibly leading to the rejection of complete
replacement.
This result indicates that modern humans of African origin
completely replaced earlier populations in East Africa.

In linking the early dispersal of early Homo with its

emergence, we are describing a hominid very different from
the australopithecines, whose bipedal but still ape-like
anatomy must have limited them to wooded locales. Thus the
significance of an early dispersal to Asia is manifold. First, the
climatic conditions of cool aridity that played a great role in
the emergence of Homo itself also drew hominid populations
out of Africa and into Asia. Emergence and dispersal are, to a
great extent, a product of environmental change.

Nevertheless, early Homo emerged with a radical, yet still

generalized, set of characteristics that granted it ecological
hegemony across the subtropical Old World. An early
intercontinental distribution signifies a hominid not adapted to
specific territorial conditions, but adapted to manage many
local conditions through physical presence, technology and
flexible social organization. Ironically, as the first species to
use technology, early Homo colonized much of the
subtropical Old World without the benefit of language,
symbolic culture or individual consciousness as we know it.

Critiques of the
Replacement Model
Critics of this genetic argument say that the rate of mutation is
not necessarily constant and that there were flaws in the
computer program that was used to construct the human
family trees; for instance, the results of the study varied with
the order in which the data were entered. Further genetic
studies carried out since the mid 1990's have both supported
and undermined an African origin for modern humans. John
Relethford, of the State University of New York College at
Oneonta, has pointed out that Africa could have had the
greatest diversity in mtDNA simply because there were more
people living there during the last several hundred thousand
years.

Critiques of the
Replacement Model
Researchers from the University of Chicago and Yale
University have discovered that variations in the DNA of the
Y chromosome and chromosome 12 have the greatest
diversity among Africans. This is consistent with the
replacement model. However, geneticists from Oxford
University have found that the human betaglobin gene is
widely distributed in Asia but not in Africa. Since this gene is
thought to have originated more than 200,000 years ago, it
undercuts the claim that an African population of Homo
sapiens sapiens replaced East Asian archaic Homo sapiens.

The Regional Continuity Model

Fossil evidence is used to support the regional continuity
model. Its advocates claim that there has been a continuity of
some anatomical traits from archaic Homo sapiens to modern
humans in Europe and Asia. In other words, the Asian and
European physical characteristics have antiquity in these regions
going back over 100,000 years. They point to the fact that many
Europeans have relatively heavy brow ridges reminiscent of
Neandertals. Similarly, it is claimed that Chinese facial
characteristics can be seen in Asian archaic Homo sapiens dating
to 200,000 years ago. Like Homo erectus, East Asians today
commonly have shovel-shaped incisors while Africans and
Europeans rarely do. This supports the contention of direct
genetic links between Asian Homo erectus and modern Asians.

The Regional Continuity Model

Alan Thorne of the Australian National University believes
that Australian aborigines share key skeletal and dental traits
with people who inhabited Indonesia at least 100,000 years
ago. The implication is that there was no replacement by
modern humans from Africa 60,000-50,000 years ago.
However, the evidence does not rule out gene flow from
African populations to Europe and Asia at that time and
before. David Frayer of the University of Kansas believes
that a number of European fossils from the last 50,000 years
have characteristics that are the result of archaic and modern
Homo sapiens interbreeding.

The Regional Continuity Model

Part of the mitochondrial DNA was extracted recently from the
bones of a 60,000 year old modern Homo sapiens skeleton
found in 1974 on the shores of Lake Mungo in Southeastern
Australia. This is the oldest DNA that has been extracted from
a human so far. Comparison of this DNA with that of nine
other ancient Australian skeletons, 2 Neanderthals, and 3,453
contemporary people from around the world indicates that
"Mungo Man" had a unique genetic marker. This indicates
that a now lost genetic line of modern Homo sapiens existed in
Australia prior to the arrival of later Australian Aborigines.
This evidence provides significant support for rejecting the
"out of Africa" complete replacement model of modern Homo
sapiens evolution.

The Regional Continuity Model

Alan Templeton, a geneticist at Washington University, has
reported that a new computer based analysis of 10 different
human DNA sequences indicate that there has been
interbreeding between people living in Asia, Europe, and
Africa for at least 600,000 years. These data suggest that the
complete replacement model of Homo sapiens origin is
incorrect. According to Templeton, "humans expanded again
and again out of Africa, but these expansions resulted in
interbreeding, not replacement, and thereby strengthened the
genetic ties between human populations throughout the
world." This view is gaining support among
paleoanthropologists, but critics say that Templeton's sample
is still too small to be conclusive.

Expansion Out of the Old World

Expansion Out of the Old World

The world population of modern Homo sapiens began to
grow rapidly after 50,000-40,000 years ago. It was around
this time they expanded their territory by migrating into new
regions. Their movement into northern areas coincided with
the end of a long cold period that had begun about 75,000
years ago. By 60,000 years ago, modern humans apparently
moved into Australia for the first time. Around 35,00030,000 years ago, they moved into Northeastern Siberia.

Expansion Out of the Old World

Possibly as early as 30,000 years ago and certainly by 11,500
years ago, they migrated into North America via the Bering
Land Bridge (or Beringia ). That intercontinental land
connection appeared between Siberia and Alaska as a result
of sea levels dropping more than 300 feet during the last ice
age. Until that time, all human evolution had occurred in the
Old World. The rate of human population growth has
continued to accelerate until now. The current world
population is over six billion and intercontinental migration
and gene flow are at higher levels than ever before.

Expansion Out of the Old World

A tragic consequence of human migrations into new regions
of the world has been the extinction of many animal species
indigenous to those areas. By 11,000 years ago, human
hunters in the New World apparently had wiped out 135
species of mammals, including 3/4 of the larger ones. Most
of these extinctions apparently occurred within a few hundred
years. It is likely that the changing climate at the end of the
last ice age was also a contributing factor.

Expansion Out of the Old World

However, the same cannot be said for the animal extinctions
that occurred following the arrival of aboriginal people in
Australia and Polynesians in New Zealand. In both cases,
humans were instrumental in wiping out easily hunted
species. Vulnerable marsupials were the main victims in
Australia. In New Zealand, it was mostly large flightless
birds that were driven to extinction by hunters.
The Moa, a very large and apparently
quite tasty flightless bird. It became
extinct within centuries of the
Polynesian arrival in New Zealand

Of course, the
ultimate destruction of
all giant flightless
birds in New Zealand
made this island
nation safe for naked
bungee jumping.

The Peopling of the New World

Early theories regarding the peopling of the New World
were based on the concept of Clovis First, which stated
that the first culture to enter the New World were big
game hunters of the Clovis tradition, which first appears
in the archaeological record in North America in the last
part of the Pleistocene at around 11,600 years ago. Clovis
hunters were thought to have crossed into North America
from northeast Asia across a land bridge, which was a
broad area of land up to a thousand miles wide that
connected Siberia and Alaska. This land bridge, called
Beringia, was exposed when sea levels were lower during
the last glacial period of the Pleistocene and the shallow
floor of the Bering sea was exposed.

The Peopling of the New World

According to the this theory, groups of people that were
culturally adaptated to the cold environments of northeast
Asia would have followed the herds of the large
mammals (like mammoth) that they relied on for the
majority of their subsistence. As these herds moved
across Beringia, groups of hunters and their families
would have followed them into the New World. This was
a slow process that could have taken generations to
accomplish. The migration to the New World was not a
conscious decision, but a natural consequence of
subsistence.

Studies of pollen, fossil insects

and peat from cores taken from
the floor of the Bering Sea
indicate that Beringia was covered
with tundra similar to that found
in the arctic areas of modern
Alaska, and dates from peat
indicate that at least parts of the
bridge were above water as
recently as 11,000 years ago.

Archaeologists excavating the remains of a mammoth bone hut in the Ukraine. Huts of this sort
have been found in eastern Europe and Asia and predate the Clovis culture, but they are a good
example of the sorts of cold environment adaptations that Clovis ancestors would have
possessed.

The superstructure of bones would have been covered

with mammoth hide.

The Peopling of the New World

Once across Beringia, the ancestors of the Clovis hunters
could occupy an ice-free area in what is now Alaska.
How did these people get down into the lower part of
North America? Geological evidence suggests that as the
glaciers began to recede at the end of the Pleistocene, an
ice-free corridor opened up between the Laurentide ice
sheet on the east and the Cordilleran ice sheet on the
west. This corridor is supposedly how the Clovis people
migrated south.

Map of Beringia showing the ice free area of Alaska and the migration route
(in red) through the ice-free corridor between the Laurentide and Cordilleran
ice sheets in North America. The exposed continental shelf is in light green.

The Peopling of the New World

The journey through the ice-free corridor was possible,
though, only before 21,000 years ago and after 12,000
years ago. At about 21,000 to 19,000 years ago the
Cordilleran Ice Sheet and Laurentide Ice Sheet coalesced
thereby blocking the corridor and preventing passage.
Although glacial ice retreated and the corridor re-opened
about 18,000 years ago, the landscape was forbidding, a
cold, semi-arid steppe with scant precipitation and only
10-25 percent of the land bearing sparse grass and
sagebrush. Until about 12,000 years ago, such harsh
climate, sparse vegetation, and minimal fauna probably
would not have sustained human population.

The Peopling of the New World

An alternative to the ice-free corridor was first suggested
by archaeologist Knut Fladmark. Fladmark hypothesized
that travel would have been much more rapid by boat
along the coast of the exposed continental shelf.
Confirmation of this hypothesis is difficult, because the
archaeological sites that would document the journey are
now under 80 meters or more of water. However, there
are other pieces of evidence that may support this model.
For instance, the distribution of native American
languages had their greatest clustering and distinctiveness
along the West Coast, suggesting a longer period of time
to diversify, compared to languages in the interior.

The Peopling of the New World

The coastal resources of northeastern Asia are very similar to
those of northwest North America, and once people had
adapted to hunting and gathering these resources, moving
along that coastline would have been easy. It would not
require much invention of new technologies or adaptation to
drastically different climates, even in the course of a
migration of thousands of kilometers.
The possibility that the colonizers used boats during their
entry into the New World has also been proposed.

The Peopling of the New World

It would have been much easier and safer for sizable
groups of migrating people, including children, pregnant
women and the elderly, to move along the coast by boat.
Also, the environment along the coast would have
provided many more resources (i.e.. shellfish) that could
have been gathered by all members of the group. By
contrast, inland groups slogging across the tundra through
the ice-free corridor would be dependent on the few
adult, male big-game hunters in their band. During the
best of times resources other than large game would not
have been abundant.

The Peopling of the New World

Using boats would have aided greatly in the speed and
safety of the coastal journey. Early use of boats has been
demonstrated--boats would have been necessary for the
colonization of Australia,which occurred 60,000 years ago,
and there is also evidence of possible Homo erectus use of
some sort of water craft to colonize islands that would not
have been otherwise accessible. So it isnt a stretch to
suppose that the technology was available to the colonizers
of the New World. Colonization by boat has another
advantage as a mode of colonization. It does not require an
ice-free corridor or a completely ice free continental shelf,
and so could have occurred any time over the last 60,000
years.

Strong yet flexible skin

boats that could carry more
than 40 people is a
technology found among
the ancient, northern sea
peoples of Europe, Asia and
North America.

Eskimo skin boats

The Peopling of the New World

It has also been proposed, based on technological
similarities in lithic technology that the origin of the Clovis
culture is due to settlement in North America by people of
the Upper Paleolithic Solutrean culture (21,000-16,500
B.P.) of southern France and the Iberian Peninsula. These
first settlers were participating in a hypothesized PaleoArctic Maritime Tradition, whose economy was based on
the hunting of large marine mammals and fishing from hide
covered boats along the glacial ice margin in the north
Atlantic.

A comparison of Solutrean and Clovis flaking techniquesthe outre pass flake.

.

The Peopling of the New World

Some of these sailors
eventually worked their way
over to the New World and
settled in what is now the
southeastern U.S., where the
concentration of Clovis sites
is greatest and where the
oldest Clovis sites are located.
Needless to say, there is
contentious debate associated
with this theory.

Other Evidence for the

Colonization of the New World
Dental Morphology
Linguistics
Mitochondrial DNA
Other Genetic Data

Other Evidence
Synthesis of linguistic, dental and genetic data suggest
three migrations from Asia to America, with each
wave leading to a separate linguistic group. Dental
variation is greater in the north, and that there are
three Native American dental (and parallel linguistic)
clusters, Na-Dene, Aleut-Eskimo, and Amerind
(Paleoamericans). The Aleut-Eskimo is the most
recent, the Na-Dene (Athabaskan) the next oldest, and
the Amerind the oldest.

Other Evidence
There are limitations to mtDNA studies, such as the
fact that molecular divergence can precede population
divergence. When molecules in the mtDNA chain
diverge, it only reflects when a populations genetic
composition diverges, but does not necessarily
coincide with when a population became genetically
isolated. Mutations evidenced today may predate
divergence, and statistical change may be due more to
population dynamics than temporal depth.

Other Evidence
That said, most of the statistical measures based on
models for mtDNA mutation rate assumptions suggest
that the Amerindian colonization of the New World
occurred between nineteen and seventy-eight thousand
years ago. This by itself should suggest that the
Clovis First theory for the peopling of the New World
doesnt hold water. But when the growing body of
archaeological evidence indicating greater time depth
of occupation is added to the mix, then debate of
whether the New World was occupied during preClovis times becomes moot.

Antiquity of New World

Archaeological Sites

Pedra Furada, Brazil 32,000 B.P.

Meadowcroft Rockshelter, Pennsylvania 16,200 B.P.
Topper, South Carolina 16,000+ B.P.
Cactus Hill, Virginia 15,070 B.P.
Monte Verde, Chile 14,500 B.P.

Monte Verde projectile points and a wood foreshaft

Human footprint
from the 14,500 B.P.
level at the Monte
Verde site

Until 1997 no site was widely

accepted as pre-dating the
Clovis culture (11,000 to
11,500 radiocarbon years
before present). That year, a
blue-ribbon commission of
Paleoindian specialists visited
Monte Verde, a site in Chile
with dates averaging 12,500,
and declared it to be valid.
Other possible pre-Clovis sites
include Hebior and Schaefer,
Cactus Hill, and Topper.
Meadowcroft and Pedra
Furada have also been
proposed as pre-Clovis.
Additional early sites include
Taima-Taima, Pedra Pintada,
Santa Barbara in the Channel
Islands, Quebrada Tacahuay,
and Quebrada Jaguay. (Map by
Joe LeMonnier).

Other Evidence
By various measurements of genetic distance, New World
populations have more similarities to east Asian populations
that they do to other populations around the world (no real
surprise). However, there are some intriguing differences
between the populations. Native Siberians lack one peculiar
mtDNA mutation that appeared in the Amerinds 6,000 to
10,000 years ago. This particular mutation pattern is also found
in aboriginal populations in Southeast Asia and in the islands
of Melanesia and Polynesia. This suggests contact between
these populations, but how? The route by which this gene
found its way into the population is unknown. It either came
across the Pacific to Central and South America or up the east
coast of Asia and across the northern Pacific to Alaska and
Canada.

Other Evidence
There are also genetic similarities between New World
populations and the indigenous Ainu of Japan, which exhibit
more genetic similarities to European populations than to other
Japanese or mainland Asian populations (shades of Kenniwick
Man). These similarities have been interpreted variously as
either representing a common origin for these two populations
(more likely) or a Jomon fishing boat that was blown off
course (not so much).
There are even some investigators that have suggested contact
with Africa, based on the cranial morphology of a skeletal
population from an archaeological site in Brazil (!).

Other Evidence
The one thing that should become obvious from the above
discussion, is that deducing the timing and nature of migration
and diffusion is never a clean cut process. The theories about
the origin of Homo sapiens and the subsequent radiation of the
species is still a topic that is debated, and as the above evidence
demonstrates, it is unlikely that any long-term migration is the
product of a unilinear process. Several different groups have
colonized the The New World over time and contributed their
genes to the populations that lived here, and it is just as likely
that many other groups arrived over time and perished without
contributing to the genetic makeup of the population.

Hypothesized prehistoric migration routes into the New

World, including the ice-free corridor, the coastal route,
the Solutrean entry, and the Polynesian and Australian
mariners.

Weve looked at human

migration at a global scale, lets
examine a case of human
migration on a smaller scale.

So, What Happened Once People

Arrived in the New World?
Well, they didnt just spread out,
settle down and stay put for the next
15,000 years, THATS for sure.

A Late Prehistoric Example of

Migration in North America:
The Numic Expansion
Which offers problems no less complex or
less hotly debated than those cited for the
migration scenarios discussed above.

The Numic Expansion

The Great Basin

The Numa are several groups of

people that speak related languages
of the Uto-Aztecan Family, which
arrived in the southern Sierra
Nevada-Mohave Desert area from
northern Mexico approximately
5000 years ago. This area
(southwestern or central Great
Basin) is considered to be the
ancestral Numic homeland. It is
from here that the Numic groups
expanded north and east into the
Rocky Mountains, Basin and Range
and Northern Plains regions.

The Numic Expansion

The Numa can be divided into three groups based on
language: the western group consisting of the Mono and
Northern Paiute, the Central group that contains the
Panamint, Western, Northern and Eastern Shoshone, and
the Southern group, which consists of the Kawaiisu,
Chemehuevi, Southern Paiute and Ute.
The environment of the Numa homeland is particularly arid
and harsh, and traditional economies have always been
based on highly mobile hunting and gathering.

Traditional Paiute and Shoshone lifeways in

the Great Basin.

The modern distribution of Numicspeaking peoples in western North

America

There has been considerable debate in the archaeological

community concerning the place of origin and timing of the
migration of the Numa throughout the West. Most
archaeologists (but not all) agree that the likely Numa
homeland was in either the southwestern or central Great
Basin. There are also several schools of thought regarding
the timing of the expansion out of this homeland. These can
be roughly divided into the early and late schools.
There is less agreement on why the expansion occurred and
who the people were that the Numa replaced as they
expanded.

Some archaeologists believe that the expansion

out of the Numic homeland occurred soon after
the arrival of the Uto-Aztecans from Mexico.
This would have occurred just after a midHolocene climatic arid episode formerly known
as the Altithermal.

Numic speakers would have come into contact with

other hunter-gatherer groups, and it is unknown if
they replaced these peoples or intermixed with them.
Regardless, in this scenario the Middle and Late
Archaic populations throughout the Intermountain
West would have been Numic in makeup.

Other archaeologists believe that the expansion

occurred much later, at around 1000 B.P. This
would have been well into the Late Prehistoric
period, and it would have brought the Numa into
contact with sedentary Horticultural cultures.

This later expansion has some support from

archaeological data, especially in the
documentation of the entry of the Ute and
southern Paiute in the southern area. This later
expansion makes sense for several reasons.

The big question is, how did the Numa expand relatively
rapidly into an area that was already inhabited? There are
theories that invoke an adaptation that was more efficient than
that possessed by the native populations that were replaced, but
they do not address the problem of differences in population
density. As was pointed out above, the Mohave Desert and the
Great Basin as a whole are harsh environments, and historically
supported native population densities lower than anywhere in
North America other than the Arctic.
How could a relatively small population with low density push
into areas with larger, denser populations?

Data suggest that there were significant and precipitous

decreases in population throughout western North America
starting approximately A.D. 850 and continuing through the
Anasazi abandonment of the Four Corners region in the late
13th century. This depopulation may have been associated
with climatic deterioration and increased frequency of drought
prior to A.D. 1200, and elsewhere has been correlated with the
Medieval Climatic Anomaly. Depopulation would have set the
scene for a rapid radiation of a relatively small group of people
that were pre-adapted to harsh environments.
Now that we have examined the nature of population dynamics
on very large and moderately large scales, lets examine the
nature of population dynamics on a smaller regional scale.

Population Dynamics of
Prehistoric HunterGatherer Groups in
Eastern Colorado

Recognition of a Regional Pattern:

Peaks in Late Prehistoric Radiocarbon
Age Frequency
Platte River Basin (1300-1200 BP).
Arkansas River Basin (1100-1000 BP).
Northern Colorado River Basin ( 1300-1200 BP).
Wyoming (1200-1000 BP).

From Gilmore et. al. (1999)

Platte Basin Radiocarbon Ages

Adapted from Gilmore et. al. (1999)

Arkansas Basin Radiocarbon Ages

Adapted from Zier and Kalasz 1999

Northern Colorado River Basin

From Reed and Metcalf (1999)

Wyoming

From Frison (1993)

Platte Basin
Curve Peaks
1300-1200 B.P.

Arkansas Basin
Curve Peaks
1100-1000 B.P.

The Data Set

Distribution of
archaeological
sites and isolated
finds in the Platte
and Arkansas River
Basins (N=17,812)

Distribution of sites
with radiocarbon
ages between
3000 and 100 BP

Distribution of
archaeological sites
with associated
radiocarbon ages
3000-100 BP
C-14 ages
n=621
Components n=534

If changes in the number of radiocarbon dates

are accepted as representing changes in relative
population, then it is also reasonable to assume
that changes in the spatial distribution of these
dated occupations represents changes in the
spatial distribution of population.

Geographic Mean Centers for Archaeological Sites by

Cultural Period

Middle Archaic (5000-3000 BP)

Early Ceramic (1850-800 BP)
Late Archaic
(3000-1850 BP)

Middle Ceramic
( 800-400 BP)

All Middle Ceramic

Cultures
Apishapa Phase
(900-500 BP)

This shows the

progress south and
east of the geographic
mean centers of sites
assigned to cultural
periods by temporally
diagnostic artifacts.

Wyoming

Kansas

#
S
#
S

#
S

#
S
#
#S
S
# S
#
S
#
S
#S
#
S
# S
S
#
#S
S
#
#
#S
#
S
#
S
#S
S
#
#
S

New Mexico

Geographic Mean
Centers for
Archaeological
Sites by Century,
2500100 BP

Nebraska

#
S

#
S

Oklahoma

2500-2400 BP

#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S

2300 BP

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S

#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S

#
S

#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S

#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S

Period of Relative Stability

#
S
#
S

2400-1200 BP

#
S

#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

2400-1200 BP

#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

2400-1200 BP

#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S
#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

2400-1200 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

2400-1200 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S

#
S
#
#
S
S

#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

2400-1200 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
#
S
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

2400-1200 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
#
S
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

#
S

#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

2400-1200 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
#
S
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

70
kilometers

2500-2400 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

2400-1200 BP

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
#
S
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

Population shifts south

1200-500 BP

#
S
#
S

#
S

70
kilometers

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

500-400 BP

#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
#
S
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

1200-500 BP
#
S
#
S

#
S

70
kilometers

#
S

#
S
#
# S
S
#
S

400-300 BP

#
S
#
S
#
S

500-400 BP

#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
#
S
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

1200-500 BP
#
S
#
S

#
S

70
kilometers

#
S

300-200 BP

#
S

#
S
#
# S
S
#
S

400-300 BP

#
S
#
S
#
S

500-400 BP

#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
#
S
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

1200-500 BP
#
S
#
S

#
S

70
kilometers

#
S

#
S

300-200 BP

200-100 BP

#
S

#
S
#
# S
S
#
S

400-300 BP

#
S
#
S
#
S

500-400 BP

#
S

#
S

#
S
#
S
#
S

#
S
#
#
S
S

#
S
#
S

#
S

1200-500 BP
#
S
#
S

#
S

70
kilometers

Significance?
Difference of means tests comparing the locations
(UTM northings and eastings) of the set of all stable
sites (2400-1200 BP) to the locations of the set of all
sites falling within the hypothesized period of
population movement south (1200-500 BP)
are significant at p=.05

Significance?
Not only is the movement south significant, but the
movement from west to east is also significant.
What does this mean?

Are we looking at
Population Movement, or
Differential Rates of Natural
Increase?

Probably Some of Both

As the climate gradually became warmer and

wetter between A.D. 1 and 900, two things
apparently happened. The Plains became more
productive; plants were more abundant and more
productive, and so animals were also more
abundant. People spent more of their time at
lower elevations, because the resources that the
mountains could provide were not as critical as
they had been. And human population increased.

As you can see from the following radiocarbon

frequency curves, population apparently began to
decrease first in the mountains between about 1600
to 1300 BP (top), followed by the Foothills at 1300
(middle), and then finally on the Plains at 850 BP.
Based on the slope of the respective curves, the drop
in population was more gradual in the mountains
(900 years), more rapid in the Foothills (500 years),
and precipitous on the Plains (300 years). This may
indicate a relatively rapid out migration from the
Plains, where the more gradual drops in the
mountains and Foothills suggests a decrease in the
frequency and duration of visits.

After about A.D. 900, population begins to drop

precipitously, perhaps in response to a return to
more arid conditions. Instead of returning to a
pattern where the resources in the mountains
became more important relative to decreasing
resources on the Plains, population also decreases
in the mountains. This is a pattern that is
apparently reflected across much of the west.

One possible explanation is that this dry period

was not hot and dry, but cold and dry. This might
explain why both the plains and the mountains
were apparently abandoned at the same time. It
was too dry on the Plains, which which resulted
in decreased resource availability, and in the
mountains it was too cold, which also resulted in
decreased resources.
There wasnt anywhere to go that was productive
enough to support the population that had
increased in size and density over the past 900
years.

A measure of the relative mobility of prehistoric

people called the the Component Complexity
Index (CCI) can help to determine if there was
movement from the Platte basin to the Arkansas
basin as a response to climate change.
A higher aggregate CCI for all the sites in a region
during a particular century suggests a combination
of longer occupations, and/or increased frequency of
visits and/or more people occupying sites during
occupations dated to that century.

In contrast, a lower aggregate Component Complexity Index for a

region during a particular time is indicative of greater residential
mobility and possibly smaller populations and/or lower population
densities.

Component Complexity Index

Although the peaks in the component curves

are offset by 200 years between the Platte and
Arkansas basins, the Component Complexity
Index curves are concordant, suggesting that
even though population was fluctuating, the
relative mobility of the populations in both
places was following the same trends at the
same time.

There is a trough in both CCI curves between

1250 and 950 BP, which corresponds to the
period between the peak in radiocarbon
frequency in the Platte basin at 1300-1200 BP
and the peak in the Arkansas at 1100-1000 BP.
This indication of greater mobility in both
basins during a period of decreasing
population in the Platte and increasing
population in the Arkansas could represent
migration from north to south.

The peaks and subsequent decreases in

radiocarbon age frequency occur hundreds of
years prior to the onset of the Pacific climatic
episode (850-400 BP), which is thought to have
contributed to dry conditions in eastern Colorado.
The Pacific episode would have been a likely
culprit for contributing to population movement
and decline.

In fact, the peaks and subsequent decline in both

basins occurs in the middle of the Neo-Atlantic
episode (1260-850), which is hypothesized to have
been a period of greater summer precipitation and
higher carrying capacity.

Component Frequency Curves and Paleoclimatic Episodes

The drop in population in both the Platte and

Arkansas basins does, however, correspond to
the onset of the Medieval Climate Anomaly
(remember?) mentioned above. The decrease
in population in eastern Colorado also
correlates to the drop in populations throughout
the region and west into the Colorado Plateau,
the Great Basin and California.

Introduction of new technologies such as the

bow and arrow and ceramics to the prehistoric
inhabitants of eastern Colorado in the first few
centuries A.D. may have enhanced already
established trends in prehistoric population
growth by contributing to the more efficient
exploitation of food resources.

The onset of dryer conditions associated with

the Pacific paleoclimatic episode that occurred
after 850 BP almost certainly contributed to
already established trends of population
decrease. The introduction of epidemic disease
by Europeans some five to seven hundred years
after population begins to decrease also
undoubtedly contributed significantly to further
decline in population.

Changes in subsistence, technology, economy

and climate all contributed to prehistoric
population dynamics during the past 3000
years
But

The mechanisms providing the initial impetus that

resulted in almost exponential growth in proxy
population starting at around 2200 BP and the
equally precipitous decrease in population that
occurred after about 1200-1000 BP in eastern
Colorado still remain a mystery.

Conclusions

If the radiocarbon age and component

frequency curves are accepted as a
proxy for general population trends,
and the spatial distributions of
radiocarbon ages represent the spatial
distributions of prehistoric people,
what are the implications?

There is a dramatic increase in population

in the region and beyond starting at
approximately 2200 BP and peaking at
approximately 1200-1000 BP.

There is an equally dramatic decrease in

population in the region that begins at
approximately 1000 BP, or 500 years prior
to European contact and the introduction
of epidemic European diseases.

There is evidence that prehistoric

population change in eastern Colorado can
be partially explained by migration.

Migration out of Africa:

Adcock, Gregory J., Elizabeth S. Dennis, Simon Easteal, Gavin A. Huttley, Lars S. Jermiin, W.
James Peacock, and Alan Thorne (2001) Mitochondrial DNA sequences in ancient Australians:
Implications for modern human origins. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, Vol. 98, Issue 2, 537-542.
Cann, R.L., M.Stoneking and A.C.Wilson (1987) Mitochondrial DNA and human evolution.
Nature Vol.325, pp. 31-36.
D'Agnese, Joseph (2002) Not Out of Africa: Alan Thorne's challenging ideas about human
evolution. Discover Vol. 23 No. 8.
Freyer, David (1997) Perspectives on Neanderthals as Ancestors. In Conceptual Issues in
Modern Human Origins Research. Edited by G.A. Clark and C.M. Willermet. New York:
Aldine de Gruyter. pp. 220-235.
Ke, Y., Su, B., Song, X., Lu, D., Chen, L., Li, H., Qi, C., Marzuki, S., Deka, R., Underhill, P.,
Xiao, C., Shriver, M., Lell, J., Wallace, D., Wells, R.S., Seielstad, M., Oefner, P., Zhu, D., Jin,
J., Huang, W., Chakraborty, R., Chen, Z., and Jin, L. (2001) African origin of modern humans
in east Asia: a tale of 12,000 Y chromosomes. Science 292:1151-1153.
Summarized at http://unisci.com/stories/20012/0514011.htm
Larick, Roy and Russell L. Ciochon (1996) The African Emergence and Early Asian
Dispersals of the Genus Homo American Scientist, Volume 84, No. 6
Available at http://www.amsci.org/amsci/

Migration out of Africa:

Relethford, John H. (1995). Genetics and modern human origins. Evolutionary Anthropology
4:53-63.
Mary C. Stiner, * Natalie D. Munro, Todd A. Surovell, Eitan Tchernov, Ofer Bar-Yosef
(1999) Paleolithic Population Growth Pulses Evidenced by Small Animal Exploitation Science
Jan 8 1999: 190-194.
Stringer, Christopher B. and Peter Andrews. (1988). Genetic and fossil evidence for the origin
of modern humans. Science 239:1263-1268.
Templeton, A. R. (2002). Out of Africa again and again. Nature, 416, 45 51.
Summarized at http://www.nature.com/nsu/020304/020304-7.html
Wolpoff, Milford H. (1996). Interpretations of multiregional evolution. Science
274(5288):704-707.
http://anthro.palomar.edu/homo2/modern_humans.htm
Ancient Mariners http://www.archaeology.org/9805/newsbriefs/mariners.html

Peopling of the New World:

Elias, Scott (1997) Bridge to the Past, Earth, April, 1997, pp. 51-55.
Fladmark, Knut R. (1978) The Feasibility of the Northwest Coast as a Migration Route for
Early Man in Early Man in America from a Circum-Pacific Perspective, edited by Alan L.
Bryan, pp. 119-128. Occasional Paper No. 1 of the Department of Anthropology, University
of Alberta. Edmonton, Canada.
Gibbons, Ann (1996) The Peopling of the Americas. Science 274:31-33.
Greenberg, Joseph H., Christy G. Turner II, and Stephen L. Zegura (1986) The Settlement of
the Americas: A Comparison of the Linguistic, Dental and Genetic Evidence . Current
Anthropology 27(5):477-497.
Guidon N., and G. Delibrias; (1986) Carbon-14 Dates Point to Man in the Americas 32,000
Years Ago, Nature, 321: 769
Landryk, C.A.S. and Nat Rutter, eds. (1996). The Ice-Free Corridor Revisited. Pergamon
Press. Special issue of Quaternary International.

Peopling of the New World:

Meltzer, David J. (1995) Clocking the First Americans. Annual Review of Anthropology
24:21-45.
Neves, W.A., et al. (2001). Paleoindian skeletal remains from Santana do Riacho I, Minas
Gerais, Brazil: Archaeological background, chronological context and comparative
cranial morphology. Seventieth Annual Meeting of the American Association of Physical
Anthropologists. March 28-31. Kansas City.
Summarized in http://www.sciencenews.org/20010407/fob1.asp
http://www.mnh.si.edu/arctic/arctic/html/dennis_stanford.html
http://www.beringia.com.

The Numic Expansion:

Jones, Terry L., Gary M. Brown, L. Mark Raab, Janet L. McVicar, W. Geoffrey Spaulding,
Douglas J. Kennett, Andrew York, and Phillip L. Walker (1999) Environmental
Imperatives Reconsidered. Current Anthropology 40(2):137
Madsen, David B. and David Rhode, eds. (1994) Across the West: Human Popuilation
Movement and the Expansion of the Numa. University of Utah Press, Salt Lake City.
Shennen, Stephen (2000) Population, Culture History, and the Dynamics of Culture
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