Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Human Health
Spring 2012, Lecture 13
Overview of Effects
Climate change is expected to have a major influence
on certain types of disease
Changes in both temperature and humidity will play
an important role
Some of the effects are already being seen
Some increased health risk will be due to extreme
weather events, like the 2010 heat wave in Russia,
but many problems will involve continual climate
modification
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Increased Heat
Risk - More deaths and increased disease risk
due to very hot days
Benefit Fewer winter deaths and disease
events
Heat-wave Effects
According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment
(2007), by 2100:
o Chicago is projected to experience 25% more
frequent heat waves
o Los Angeles is expected to experience a four to
eight-fold increase in heat-wave days
Increased
Heat Stress
Food Poisoning
Risk increases due to higher temperatures
Salmonellosis is especially likely to be a
problem
Aero-allergen Production
Risk Increased allergic disorders, including
hay fever and asthma due to longer pollen
seasons
Benefit Reduced exposure to aero-allergrens
in some places due to lower productions or
shorter seasons of pollen circulation
o Higher temperatures and changed humidity may
make the growing seasons shorten for some plants
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Water-borne Infection
Risk - Cholera risk will increase in coastal or
estuarine regions, due to a warming of water
temperatures
Benefit risk will diminish in areas where
heavy rainfalls decrease
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Vector-borne Infections
Risk Both mosquito and tick borne
infections are likely to increase
Benefit In areas of diminished rainfall,
mosquitoes, ticks, and snails may become less
prevalent, and regions of very high
temperatures may also decrease these vectors
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Vector-borne Disease
In epidemiology, a vector is an insect or any living
carrier that transmits an infectious agent
A vector serves two functions:
o It is required for part of the parasite's developmental cycle
o It also transmits the parasite directly to subsequent hosts
Common Vectors
Mosquitoes serve as
vectors for Malaria,
Dengue fever, Yellow
fever, and Chikungunya
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Bronx Zoo
Birds at the Bronx Zoo became infected, with
deaths of several species
o Crows
o Flamingoes
o Bald Eagles
Infectious Diseases
Many infectious agents, vector organisms, non-human
reservoir species, and rate of pathogen replication are
sensitive to climatic conditions
Salmonella and cholera bacteria, for example,
proliferate more rapidly at higher temperatures,
salmonella in animal gut and food, cholera in water
In regions where low temperature, low rainfall, or
absence of vector habitat restrict transmission of
vector-borne disease, climatic changes could tip the
ecological balance and trigger epidemics
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Flooding
Floods are classified as low-probability, high
impact events
For the decade 1992-2001, there were nearly
100,000 flood related deaths, and 1 to billion
people were affected by flooding
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Droughts
Droughts represent the other extreme of weather related
precipitation problems
Globally, disaster effects are greatest for droughts (and
associated famines) because of their regional extent,
which are usually much larger than flood-related regions
Another pollutant of concern is "particulate matter," also
known as particle pollution or PM
Climate change may indirectly affect the concentration of
PM pollution in the air by affecting natural or biogenic
sources of PM such as wildfires and dust from dry soils
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Particulate Matter
PM is a complex mixture of extremely small particles
and liquid droplets
When inhaled, these particles can reach the deepest
regions of the lungs
Exposure to particle pollution is linked to a variety of
significant health problems
Particle pollution also is the main cause of visibility
impairment (haze) in the nations cities and national
parks
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Additional Problems
According to a paper by McMichael et al.
(2006) in The Lancet, IPCC modeling
indicates a future increase of 5-10% in the
number of malnourished people
Conflicts over food, together with migrant and
refugee flows likely to result from these widerranging effects would create additional
problems
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Anticipated Consequences
These additional effects include:
o Increase in infectious disease cases
o Malnutrition
o Mental health problems
o Injury and violent death from conflict
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