Decision Support Systems

Real World Applications

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The abstract problem
 Control personal has to manage a
complex system
 Identify problems
 Understand the problems

Classify

Explain
 Evaluate problems

Anticipate consequences
 Solve the problems
 Generate a plan
 Take actions

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Why Agents?!
 Agents design advantages for control
systems
 Easy design - Each agent corresponds to
some role in the system (very self
explaining)
 Abstraction
 Functions  object  agents
 Task oriented
 Basic and compound methods.
 Social methods.
 Knowledge based

The expertise model can be improved

Reuse – Same role at different environment
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Why Agents?!
 Decision Support Systems
interact/replace human beings
 Decisions must be understandable to
human, therefore using agents will yield:
 better understanding of each role in the system
 Each role supports the humans
 At any level of expertise

better understanding of the Logic and interactions
among the components
 There already is a control structure

Agents replace the existing structure

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Problems Characteristics
 A lot of input
 Background work
 Human decision maker at the end
 Task oriented
 Examples:
 Energy management
 Traffic management

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Energy Management
 Power plants generate electricity
 Final consumption takes place far away
 Many things can go wrong in the middle:

Unpredictable problems:
 Equipment damage
 Disasters (winds, lightning)

Predictable problems:
 Temperature changes
 Overall demand changes.
 Some damages effect quality while others
deny the service

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The Architecture
 Based on a network of a company in
Spain
 Networks are managed from a control
room
 Information is sent to the control room
 Protection equipment can be remotely
operated
 Field engineer operate in the field
 The network consists of substations,
and each substation consists of:
 Lines
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 Breakers & switches
The Goal
 Main Problem:
 Usually caused by short circuits in the lines
 Malfunctioning equipment may cause a
chain reaction that extends the area of
effect
 Solution
 Isolating the effected area usually solves
the problem
 The goal:
 Minimize the disconnected area
 restore supply as soon as possible
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The electricity transport
management problem
 Control personal has to manage a
complex system - control the switches
and breakers
 Identify malfunctioning in switches and
breakers
 Understand the problems
 Classify - Diagnose the problem
 Explain the alarm messages according to the
diagnosis
 Evaluate problems

Anticipate consequences that may cause
expansion of the area of effect
 Solve the problems 9
The Multi-Agent
Architecture
 Constraints:
 Existing expert systems
 Existing configuration of the data
transmission
 Two formats

 Non chronological alarm messages – NAM

 Chronological alarm messages – CAM
 Existing control structure

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The Multi-Agent
Architecture
 Alarm Analysis Agents
 Replaces an existing expert system
 Methods:
 Reads messages
 Detects faults
 Establishes hypotheses regarding the
malfunctioning equipment
 Basic methods & compound methods

Rule based

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The Multi-Agent
Architecture
 Control System Interface Agent
 constitutes the application’s front end to the
user
 Basic methods:
 Acquires and distributes network data to other agents
(formats the message for use by other agents)
 Done using a hard-wired algorithm

 Calculates the power distribution, given a certain state

 Done using a numerical simulator

 A compound method which is used when a certain

set of messages arrive
 A social method which generates classification with
the help of the alarm analysis agents
 This agent wraps existing functionality
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 Example of TMST
Messages CSI Information
Model

Disturbance Detection

Alarm Detection Classify Situation Alarm Classification

Acquire Data Coordinate classification

(direct algorithm)

Alarm Analysis
Alarm
AgentAnalysis
Agent
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Additional Agents
 Blackout Area Identifier
 Determines the results of a given scenario (network
state and faults)
 Rule based
 Service Restoration Agent
 Proposes a switching plan given alarm messages and
the results of the diagnosis
 User Interface Agent
 Serves as an interface between the multi-agent
system and the users for presenting data
 Browse through the lists of alarms
 Display results of diagnosis along with explanations
 Sets up guidelines for the other agents
 Simulates the effect of a restoration plan 14
Coordination
 Can be done with an acquaintance
model
 Frames that contain the methods that
the other agents can perform
including:
 The types of the methods

The competence with which the method
can be applied

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Summary
 The energy transport problem is
very suitable for DSS
 Every agent decision may be
explained to the responsible engineer
using the trace of the reasoning
methods
 Problem definition fits into the
abstract problem definition
 The multi-agent system managed to
cope with the existing constraints
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Road Traffic Management
 Traffic flows on public roads
increase at high rate
 Number of vehicles increase
 Roads infrastructure cannot be expanded
 Significant economic loses
 Traffic Control Centers (TCC)

In charge of managing urban transport

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Available Information
 Messages from human observers
 Gal-Galatz
 Policemen
 Devices
 TV cameras
 Cellular phone
 Sensors

Loop detectors -Installed on strategic channels
 Speed - mean velocity of the passing vehicles
 Flow - average number of vehicles per unit of time
 Occupancy - average time that vehicles are spotted

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Available Control Devices
 Variable Message Sings (VMS)
 Installed above the road
(like those on the way to Tel-Aviv)
 Traffic signs (closed road sign)
 Arbitrary message signs
 Traffic lights

Parameters of the traffic light can be
modified
 Relative amount of green time
 Overall length of a cycle
 Order of traffic lights

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The Urban Highway Traffic
Control Problem
 system – Control the traffic lights and
VMSs
 Identify and locate problematic situation
 Understand the problems

Classify the cause of the problem
(congestion/accident)

Explain the problem in terms of traffic flows
 Evaluate problems

Anticipate consequences due to chain reactions of
the congestion
 Solve the problems
 Generate a legal sign plan and/or traffic lights
handling plan, in order to eliminate or alleviate20
the congestion
The Multi-Agent
Architecture
 The structure of the system was
dictated by the way human operators
worked

Problem areas topology
 All agents share the same
architecture and the same reasoning
structure
 Their knowledge however, was based on
the specific problem area in their
responsibility
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Basic Methods of the
Agents
 Data abstraction
 Determines qualitative measure for different variables

Problem Type identification
 Takes the data generated by the data abstraction method
and classifies the underlying problem
 Done by matching the data against problem scenario

frames
 Demand estimation
 Calculate ‘the normal’ demand for a section of the network
 Based on temporal pattern (hour, day of week, events...)


Effect estimation
 Anticipates the effect of flows on a certain problem
 The state of the control devices

 Contribution of certain routes to the problem


Signal plan selection

Short term prediction estimation 22
Compound Methods
 Heuristic classification
 Problem solving method

Acquires relevant information

Problems type are matches upon the
information

The problems are integrated and refined
 Contributor differentiation
 Determines how much a set of causes
contributes to a problem

Identifies possible contributors

Estimates each contributor

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Compound Methods
 Generate & Test
 Evaluates proposals generated by the basic
method until an adequate plan is found
 Depends on outside constraints (coordination)
 Local management
 Manages the network by integrating all the
methods

Identifies traffic problem

Diagnoses its causes

Generate a proper plan to overcome it.

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Coordination
 Problem areas are not disjoint

Physical conflicts

Logical conflicts
 Two coordination solutions

Coordinator agent

Peer-to-peer communication
 Acquaintance model
 Does not represent information concerning method

of other agents

Describes the resources that acquaintances
require and which effects they may have (on
sections in the agent’s problem area)
 Local plans are sent to the relevant agents

The agent with the most severe problem takes
precedence 25
Summary
 Once again a DSS is a very
suitable solution
 The traffic management problem fits
the abstract DSS problem
 The DSS had to be based on existing
control engineer’s understanding of a
town’s traffic behavior

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Additional Potential
Examples
 Intelligence Word
 Medicine
 Every other problem that fits that
abstract problem definition…

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