Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Technique (PERT)
Prof.G.Purandaran
M.Tech (I.I.T-Madras)
PGDM (I.I.M-Bangalore)
Objective of the
presentation
To understand the formula , the use
and the benefits of Program ,
Evaluation ,and Review Technic
(PERT) analysis .
12 + 4(18) + 60
Expected Time = ------------------------6
= 24 days
C
Start
Finish
D:4.5
ES:10.33
EF:14.83
A
D:4
ES:0
EF:4
C
D:5.17
ES:4
EF:9.17
Start
ES:0
EF:0
B
D:5.33
ES:0
EF:5.33
Finish
D:0
ES:19.51
EF:19.51
E
D:5.17
ES:9.17
EF:14.34
G
D:5.17
ES:14.34
EF:19.51
ES:4
EF:10.33
LS:8.68
LF:15.01
ES:10.33
EF:14.83
LS:15.01
LF:19.51
C
D:5.17
ES:4
EF:9.17
LS:4
LF:9.17
Start
D:0
ES:0
EF:0
LS:0
LF:0
B
D:5.33
ES:0
EF:5.33
LS:3.84
LF:9.17
Finish
D:0
ES:19.51
EF:19.51
LS:19.51
LF:19.51
E
D:5.17
ES:9.17
EF:14.34
LS:9.17
LF:14.34
G
D:5.17
ES:14.34
EF:19.51
LS:14.34
LF:19.51
Critical Path
Critical Path: A-C-E-G
Path A-D-F
= 14.83 work days
Path A-C-E-G = 19.51 work
days
Path B-E-G
= 15.67 work days
Critical Path
Assessing Risks
Risk is a measure of the probability
(and consequences) of not completing
a project on time.
A major responsibility of the project
manager at the start of a project is to
develop a risk-management plan.
A Risk-Management Plan identifies
the key risks to a projects success and
prescribes ways to circumvent them.
Assessing Risks
With PERTs three time-estimates, we get a
mean (average) time and a variance for
each activity and each path.
Assessing Risks
Path
(wks)
A-I-K 33
33
A-F-K 28
28
A-C-G-J-K
B-D-H-J-K
B-E-J-K
Time
12
27
48 15 63
12
12 F 22
2 12 14
53 10 63
67
Start
69
43
12
22
14 1 24
0
0
B 9
9 9
9
19
9 10 19
9 E 33
35 24 59
Latest
start
time
63 K 69
63 6 69
22 G 57
24
59
Finish
35
H
19
59
19 40 59
Latest
finish
time
59
J 63
59 4 63
Assessing Risks
What is the probability that our sample
project will finish in 69 weeks as scheduled?
100%
(Why?)
Assessing Risks
Calculate standard deviation
Standard deviation- average deviation from the
estimated time
SD=(TP-T0)/6
Calculate variance
reflects the spread of a value over a normal
distribution
V=SD2
Assessing Risks
C = 69 weeks
TC
z =path)2
= (variances of activities along critical
Assessing Risks
Assessing Risks
Normal
distribution: Mean
= 69 weeks;
= 3.45 weeks
Length of
critical path
is 69 weeks
Probability of
taking 72 weeks
is 0.8078 or
80.78%
Probability of
exceeding 72
weeks is 0.1922
or 19.22%
69 72
Project duration (weeks)
Assessing Risks
Assessing Risks