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ln R ( t ) ( t )dt...(7)
0
R (t) e
( t ) dt
0
...(8)
tf (t ) dt...(9)
0
R (t ) dt.............(10)
0
MTTF Limit R ( s )
s 0
...(11)
where:
MTTF is the item mean time to failure,
E(t) is the expected value,
s is the Laplace transform variable,
R(s) is the Laplace transform for the reliability
function, R (t).
5
is the failure rate
MTBF
Review Questions:
10
11
Example 1 :
Assume that a railway engines constant failure rate
is 0.0002 failures per hour. Calculate the engines
1 to failure.
1
mean time
MTTF
0.0002
5000h
e
Using the given data in Equation
e ( 0.0004)(15)
0.994
12
MTTF
MTTF
MTTF
R (t ) dt.............(10)
t
e
dt..
( 0.0004) t
e
dt ..
0.0004
2,500h
Thus, the reliability and mean time to failure of the
automobile are 0.994 and 2,500 h, respectively.
13
Reliability Networks
An engineering system can form various different
configurations in conducting reliability analysis. If the
reliability factor or the probability of failure of the
system is to be determined, we will find that it is very
difficult to analyze the system as a whole.
The failure of the system as a whole can be attributed
to the failure of one or more components of the system
not functioning in the stipulated manner.
Depending on the type in which the sub-system and
elements are connected to constitute the given
system, the combinatorial rules of probability are
applied to obtain the system reliability.
14
Series Network
Each block in the diagram represents a unit/component.
Diagram represents a system with m number of units
acting in series.
If any one of the units fails, the system fails.
In other words, all units must operate normally for the
systems success.
The reliability of series systems network is expressed by:
where,
Rs=series system reliability or probability of success,
xi=event denoting the success of unit i, for i=1,2,3,,m
and
P(x1,x2,x3,..xm)=probability of occurrence of events x1,x2,x3,
,xm
15
16
R s R i ......(3)
i 1
i 1
R s 1 m(1 R )......(5)
17
Example 1:
Assume an automobile has four independent and
identical tires. The tire reliability is 0.97. If any one of the
tries is punctured, the automobile cannot be driven.
Calculate the automobile reliability with respect to tires
by using eq. (3) and eq. (5). Comment on the end result.
R s (0.97)(0.97)(0.97)(0.97) 0.8853
18
Parallel Network
This is a widely used network and it represents a system
with m units operating simultaneously. At least one unit
must operate normally for the system success.
Each block in the diagram denotes a unit. The failure
probability of the parallel system/network is given by:
Fp P( x1 x 2 x 3 ......x m )
...(6)
Fp P x1 x 2 x 3 ...... x m
...(7)
where:
P( x1 )is the probability of occurrence of failure event xi
, for i=1,2,3,,m
19
20
Parallel Network
Fp Fi
If we let Fi=P(xi) in eq. (7) it yields:
...(8)
i 1
F
...(10
) (9) becomes
For pidentical units,
eq.
where: F is the unit failure probability.
Since
R p R+F=1,
1 (1 R ) meq....((10)
11) is rewritten to the following form:
where: R is the unit reliability.
21
22
Example 2:
A computer has two independent and
identical Central Processing units (CPUs)
operating simultaneously. At least one CPU
must operate normally for the computer to
function successfully. If the CPU reliability is
0.96, calculate the computer reliability with
respect to CPUs.
R p 1 (1 0.96) 2 0.9984
By substituting the specified data values
into eq. (11), we get
Thus, the computer reliability with respect
to CPUs is 0.9984.
23
Series-Parallel Network
This network represents a system having m number of subsystems
in series. In turn, each subsystem contains k number of active (i.e.,
operating) units in parallel. If any one of the subsystems fails, the
system fails. Each block diagram in the diagram represents a unit.
Figure 2 (below) shows series-parallel network/system.
24
R pi 1 Fij
...(13)
j1
R sp 1 Fij ...(14)
i 1
j1
where Rsp is the series-parallel network/system reliability.
m
R sp 1 F
k m
...(15)
R sp 1 1 R
k m
...(16)
25
26
Example 3:
Assume that a system has four active,
independent, and identical units forming a
series-parallel configuration (i.e., k=2,
m=2). Each units reliability is 0.94.
Calculate the system reliability.
By substituting
2 2 the given data values into
R sp (16)
1 1yields:
0.94 0.9928
eq.
27
Parallel-Series Network
This network represents a system having m number of
subsystems in parallel. In turn, each subsystem contains k
number of active (i.e., operating) units in series. At least
one subsystem must function normally for the system
success. The network/system block diagram is shown in
Figure 4. Each block in the diagram denotes a unit.
For independent and identical units, using eq. (3), we get
the following equation for the i th subsystems reliability,
k
inRFigure
R4 : ...(17)
si
ij
j1
j1
29
R ps 1 1 Rij
i 1
j 1
...(19)
R ps 1 1 R
k m
...(20)
30
For R=0.8, the plots the eq. (20) are shown in Figure
(below). The plots show that as the number of units
k
increases,
the
system/network
reliability
decreases accordingly. On the other hand, as the
number of subsystems m increases, the system
reliability also increases.
31
Example 4:
Review Questions:
Reliability Allocation
The process by which the failure allowance for
a system is allocated in some logical manner
among its sub-systems and elements is
termed as reliability allocation.
Reliability allocation may simply be
described as the process of assigning
reliability requirements to individual
parts or components to achieve the
specified system reliability.
34
Two
reliability
allocation
described as follows:
methods
are
s i
...(1.3)
i 1
i sr
...(1.4)
i 1
i 1 ...(1.6)
i 1
42
43
48
Decomposition Method
This method is used to evaluate reliability of complex
systems. It decomposes complex systems into simpler
subsystems by applying the conditional probability
measures of subsystems.
The method begins by first selecting the key element or
unit to be used to decompose a given network/system.
The poor choice of this key element leads to poor
efficiency of computing system reliability. Nonetheless,
the past experience usually plays an instrumental role in
selecting the right key element.
First, the method assumes that the key element/unit, say x,
is replaced by another element that never fails (i.e.,
100% reliable) and then it assumes that the key element
is 100% unreliable (i.e., it is completely removed from the
system or network). Under this scenario, the overall
system/network reliability is given by
Rs=P(x)P(system good/x good)+P(
)P(system good/ x fails)
X
(10)
49
Decomposition Method
where: Rs=system reliability
P(system good/x good)=reliability of the system
when x is 100% reliable.
P(system good/ x fails)=reliability of the system
when x is 100% unreliable
P(x)=reliability of the key element x
P( )=unreliability
of the key element x
X
Similarly, the overall system/network unreliability is
expressed by:
X
URs=P(x)P(system fails/x good)+P(
)P(system fails/x
fails)
where: URs=system unreliability
P(system fails/ x good)=unreliability of the system
when x is 100% reliable
P(system fails/x fails)=unreliability of the system
when x is 100% unreliable
50
51
Rsp=[1-(1-R1)(1-R4)][1-(1-R2)(1-R5)]
..(12)
Rsp=[1-(1-R)2]2=(2R-R2)2
..(13)
Rps=1-(1-R1R2)(1-R4R5) ..(14)
52
Rps=1-(1-R)2=2R2-R4 ...(15)
The reliability and unreliability
respectively, are given by:
of
the
key
element
x,
X )=1-R3(17)
P(x)=R3 (16) and P(
For R3=R, eq. (16) and eq. (17) become:
P(x)=R (18) and P( X
)=(1-R) (19)
Substituting eq. (12), eq. (14), eq. (16), and eq. (17) into eq.
(10) yields:
Rs=R3[1-(1-R1)(1-R4)][1-(1-R2)(1-R5)]+(1-R3)[1-(1-R1R2)
(1-R4R5)](20)
For identical units, inserting eq. (13), eq. (15), eq. (18) and eq.
(19) into eq. (10), we get:
Rs=R(2R-R2)2+(1-R)(2R2-R4)=2R2+2R3-5R4+2R5 (21)
Thus, eq. (20) and eq. (21) are reliability expressions for Figure
6 network with non-identical and identical units, respectively.
53
Delta-Star Method
This is the simplest and very practical approach to evaluate
reliability of bridge networks. This technique transforms a bridge
network to its equivalent series and parallel form. However, the
transformation process introduces a small error in the end result,
but for practical purposes it should be neglected.
Once a bridge network is transformed to its equivalent parallel and
series form, the network reduction approach can be applied to
obtain network reliability. The delta-star method can easily handle
networks containing more than one bridge configurations.
Furthermore, it can be applied to bridge networks composed of
devices having two mutually exclusive failure modes.
Figure 8 shows delta to star equivalent reliability diagram. The
numbers 1,2, and 3 denote nodes, the blocks the units, and R (.) the
respective unit reliability.
In Figure 8, it is assumed that three units of a system with
reliabilities R12, R13, and R23 form the delta configuration and its star
equivalent configuration units' reliabilities are R1, R2, and R3.
Using Equations (3) and (9) and Figure 8, we write down the
following equivalent reliability equations for network reliability
between nodes 1, 2; 2, 3; and I, 3, respectively:
54
55
R1R2=1-(1-R12)(1-R13R23)(49)
R2R3=1-(1-R23)(1-R12R13)
(50)
R1R3=1-(1-R13)(1-R12R23) (51)
Solving eqs. (49) through (51), we get
AC
R1
B
...(52)
where:
A=1-(1-R12)(1-R13R23) (53)
B=1-(1-R23)(1-R12R13) (54)
C=1-(1-R13)(1-R12R23) (55)
R2
AB
C
...(56)
R3
BC
A
...(57)
56
57
Figure
10.
Equivalent
configuration of Figure 9.
network
to
bridge
59
Figure A
approach.
denotes a
units fail
Figure A
60
E Q i g Fq i
m
...(58)
i 1
E
b C exp
kT
...(60)
where:
C is a constant
E is the activation energy for the process.
K is the Boltzmanns constant.
T is the absolute temperature.
63
Markov Method
65
Limit
t 0
P0 ( t t ) P0 ( t ) dP0 ( t )
P0 t
t
dt
...(5)
and
Limit
t 0
P1 ( t t ) P1 ( t ) dP1 ( t )
P1t
t
dt
...(6)
) (8)
66
1
MTTFs R s ( t )dt e dt
0
0
t
...(9)
67
Review Questions:
Calculate
the
reliability of the
Figure A network
using the deltastar
approach.
Assume that each
block in the figure
denotes a unit with
reliability 0.8 and
all
units
fail
independently.
Figure A
An aerospace system is
made
up
of
seven
independent subsystems
in series and it specified
failure
rate
0.009
failures/h. Subsystems 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7
estimated failure rates
from previous experience
are
0.001
failures/h,
0.002 failures/h, 0.003
failures/h,
0.004
failures/h,
0.005
failures/h,
0.006
failures/h,
and
0.007
failures/h,
respectively.
Allocate
the
specified
system failure rate to
seven subsystems.
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69
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