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Culture Documents
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Improving foresight
through better theories of
universal change.
EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of
physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and
social scientists, technologists, philosophers, and
complexity and systems theorists who are interested
in better characterizing the relationship and difference
between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and
developmental (significantly predictable) processes
in the universe and its subsystems.
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To
To
To better
accelerating experimentation/creativity/evolution
accelerating adaptation/intelligence/progress, and
accelerating sustainability/immunity/resiliency
(noting that we have yet to well articulate this last concept).
To learn
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To
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2020-2050 Scenarios
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Termite Mound
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Look at how we do it in
domesticated animals (10,000
years, 5,000 breeding cycles).
How many breeds of dogs and
cats can you trust with small
children?
Military will always have the
warbots (narrowly trustable)
Most breeds of robotic systems will
be generally trustable, all will be
trustable for their missions, or we
wont build them using evolutionary
processes.
Sputnik (1957)
U.S.-Surpassing
Space/Defense Tech
U.S. Soldier-Enhancing
Security/Warfighting Tech
Global Soldier-Surpassing
Security/Policing Tech
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Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.
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Alto J
Smart,
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
11 words.
(2003) The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward. 2009 Accelerating.org
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Necklace phone
(Nokia 2004)
Carpal PC concept
(Metaverse Roadmap 2006)
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Wearcam.orgs first-gen
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Palo Altosousveillance cams (2001)
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Ananova, 2002
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Valuecosm 2040:
Our Plural-Positive Political Future
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Microcosm
(Gilder), 1960s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2030s
- Recording and Publishing DT Preferences
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Early Examples: Social Network Media
2009 Accelerating.org
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Pluralistic
Positive-Sum
Differentiated
Both/And
Social-Tech
versus
versus
versus
versus
Plutocratic
Zero-Sum
Homogeneous
Either/Or Futures
AND
Individual advance
(Top-Down, Devo)
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Calculator Prolif.
Automation Incr.
Metaverse Adv.
Automated Cars
Digital Twins
Security
(Bottom-Up, Evo)
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
Math Skills
Work/Prod. Skills
Study/Reading Skills
Driving Skills
Self-Empowerment
Freedom (to & from)
Computational
(Adaptive)
Psychology, Intelligence
Organism
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Informational
Physical
Computation
Mind/Body
(In Complex Systems)
Experiential/
Conceptual
Universe
(informational degrees of freedom)
All
Material/
Physical
Universe
(physical fundamentals and constraints)
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Mind/Body
is an adapted form of intelligence, an integrated (Information/Physics) dualism.
Computation
Mind/Body
(In Complex Systems)
Practical
Non-Natural/Moral
Empirical Results
Messy, Contingent
Principle
Natural/Amoral
Theoretical Relations
Clean, Invariant
Our
New
York 95/5 Rule (to be discussed):
Palo
Alto our perspective, ~95% of change looks like practice. Only ~5% looks like principle
From
IPU Hypothesis:
Wheelers Bit / It Duality, and Its Integration
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Computation
Mind/Body
(In Complex Systems)
Informational / Bit
Physical / It
Observer/Creator
Observed/Constrained
(Unique Relational)
(Persistent Relational)
Yes/No Q.M., Symmetry
G.R., Conserved Symmetry
Breaking
Stable, Determinate,
Variable, Indeterm., Contextual
Predictable
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Physical
nature is deterministic, but Informational nature, which must be based on
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contextual
observation, is both inaccurate and partly indeterminate/creative.
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Mind/Body
Bit/It
Observer/Observed
Intelligence
Informational
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Physical
Empirical Results
Messy, Contingent
Theoretical Relations
Clean, Invariant
Informational Observables
Physical Observables
Good
Ethos (Authority)
(Adaptation, Selection,
l
Th
a
Competition & Collaboration,
e
e
Id Pattern-Rec, Analogy, Integration,
Id
e
ea
Th
Intelligence, Ethics, Philosophy)
l
The Real
Beautiful
True
(Creativity, Imagination,
Intuition, Induction, Belief)
(Discovery, Evidence,
Reason, Deduction, Science)
Evolution
Development
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New
York Renaissance (1400s-1600s) and Enlightenment (1650-1800) applied rationality to truth, giving great science and
European
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Alto
technology
advances but less so in aesthetics and morality, imbalancing the classical triad. We can restore the balance.
Belief
Systems
Philosophy
(Adaptation, Selection,
Competition & Collaboration,
Pattern-Rec, Analogy, Integration,
Ethics, Practical Knowl., Philosophy)
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Systems
Belief
Systems
Science
(Creativity, Imagination,
Intuition, Induction, Belief)
(Discovery, Evidence,
Reason, Deduction, Science)
Evolution
Development
Possible
1. Preferable
Futures (Planning)
(Consensus, Leadership, Policy,
Planning, Roadmaps, Surveys)
3. Possible
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2. Probable
Futures (Foresight)
Futures (Forecasting)
Evolution
Development
Creativity
Personal Organizational
Personal Organizational
Work
(Income Gen., Social Learning,
Social Productivity, Exercise)
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Creativity
Sustainability
(Innovation, Recreation,
Art, Basic Research, Experiment)
(Maintenance, Conservation,
Health, Ecosystem, Sleep, Limits)
Evolution
Development
Dialectics
Synthesis
(Organism, Becoming)
GWF Hegel
1770-1831
Socrates
469-399 BCE
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Thesis
(1776)
Antithesis
(e.g, Wholes,
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Evolutionary
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Developmental
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Smart,
New York John M. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic
Culture.
In: Cosmos and Culture, Steven J. Dick (ed.), NASA Press (est. 2009).
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Evo-devo
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Natural Selection
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Experimentat
ion
Main Actor: Seed
Replication,
Variation,
Chaos,
Contingency,
Early Species
Radiation
(Mostly
Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
Adaptation
Radiation
Evolution
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Compu (EvoDevo)
(Intersection)
Convergent
Unification
Hierarchy
2007 Accelerating.org
Key Conjectures
Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty.
Development causes cyclic predictability and stability.
Evolution drives most unique local patterns.
Development drives most predictable global patterns.
Evolution is intelligence/adaptation accumulation.
Development is intelligence/adaptation preservation.
Life, Intelligence, and the Universe must use both
evo and devo processes to emerge and persist.
Individually, each process has conflicting and contrasting
aims (functions, purposes, telos).
Together, they are complementary, and a complementary
evo devo teleology must exist.
The
more consciously we are aware of this, the better
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Angeles
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York
we can understand, value, and work with both.
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these
New York two processes are also basic to
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emergence
of universal complexity.
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Adaptation
(Organism)
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Evolution, Reductionism
Development,
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Gerhart
Deconstrained
Constrained
Exploratory Processes
Unconserved, Unpredictable
Core Processes
Conserved, Predictable
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The
vast majority (we may roughly propose 95%) of the information and
computation to describe and model both creation of a new CAS or
hierarchy or control in a mature CAS or hierarchy involves bottom-up,
local, evolutionary processes. A minor yet critical contribution (again, let
us roughly propose 5%) comes from top-down, systemic,
developmental processes.
Ex: No of genes used (and highly conserved) in developmental toolkit in
any species (eg., Dictyostelium, 2-3%), vs. the much larger number of
evolutionary genes that are more frequently modified and affect
phenotype variation, not development.
The 95/5% Rule may explain why discovery of universal development
been difficult not in physics and chemistry (where we have made great
strides, e.g., mechanics, relativity, particle physics) but in biology,
society, and technology.
In these latter substrates, which are not yet ergodic, the time scale of the
(5%) nonrandom developmental signal is much longer than the (95%)
near-random evolutionary signal.
2007 Accelerating.org
Post-Enlightenment
Adaptation
Univ. Evo
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(1997)
Bio. Evo
(1859)
Social Evo
(Organism)Univ. Devo
(1776)
Evolution, Reductionism
(1916)
Bio. Devo
(1864)
Development,
Social Devo
(1759)
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1. AstroPhysics
(Universe-as-CAS, constants and laws, space-time, energy-matter)
2. AstroChemistry
(galaxies, stars, planets, molecules in inorganic and organic chemistry)
3. AstroBiology
(cells, organisms, populations, species, ecologies)
4. AstroSociology
(culture, human disciplines of economics, law, sci., engineering, etc.)
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5. AstroTechnology
(engines, cities, biology-inspired computing, postbiological life)
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While all of these (and other) systems are important to science, the last five
underlined scales seem particularly useful perspectives for humanity.
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Quantum
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Are
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Crutchfield,
J.P. 2001. When Evolution is Revolution: Origins of Innovation. In: Crutchfield, J.P. and Schuster, P.
Palo Alto Evolutionary Dynamics: Exploring the Interplay of Selection, Neutrality, Accident and Function.
(eds.),
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Developmental Bottleneck?
Lipids and RNA
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Lipids and RNA may be the only way from organic chemistry to cells!
RNA, lipids/cell membranes, and protein precursors (amino acids) all form
spontaneously in Earths chemistry (and precursors on meteorites).
RNA is presently the only known molecule that can both reproduce itself
and catalyze protein production (ribozymes)
RNA later learned to store itself more permanently as DNA (RNA World
Hypothesis), but DNA may not be the only more stable nucleic acid.
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Alonzo Ricardo and Jack Szostak. Life on Earth, Scientific American, Sept 2009.
Matthew W. Powner, Beatrice Gerland & John D. Sutherland. Synthesis of activated pyrimidine ribonucleotides in
prebiotically plausible conditions, Nature V. 460 May 13, 2009.
Developmental Bottleneck?
Oxygen/Nitrogen Atmosphere for Water Photosynthesis
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Only visible-infrared light gets through our atmosphere and the first
few feet of our water with any efficiency.
Water-based photosynthesis (blue-green algae, Photosystem I) had
to evolve (develop) inside this narrow fitness region (bottleneck),
and is likely chained to this bottleneck everywhere else as well.
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Our Sun puts out almost all its radiant energy in the spectral band
absorbable by our atmosphere and water and useful to life, and
virtually none in those regions harmful to life
Is this some expected physical process like Weak Anthropic
Principle (observer dependent sorting), Strong Anthropic Principle
(Universal Developmental Process), Sun-Earth Coevolution, or?
Also, what is the random probably of such a fortuitous Sun-Earth fit?
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Evo Fanout
Devo Bottleneck
EvoDevo
Adaptation
(Competition,
Cooperation)
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Bottlenecks
Variation
Adaptation
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Replic. carbohydrates
(RNA world) and fats
(lipid membranes), then
proteins (modern cells)
Energetics: H2S
chemo-synthesis (1st
life) later, visible light
(photosynth and vision)
L vs. R asymmetries
(other symm. choices
are false variation)
Bottlenecks
Variation
Adaptation
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One to multi-wheeled
vehicles, active and
passive balancing.
L vs. R asymmetries
Gunpowder, cannons,
and guns
Fireworks in China, no
guns in Japan for 250 yrs
Combustion engines
(external and internal)
Electricity
Bottlenecks
Variation
Adaptation
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Agricultural-Domestic
Society
Variety of plants/farming
animals/husbandry
Industrial Society
Variety of machine
designs, energy sources
Manchester factories,
Fords assembly line
Regulated Capitalism
with Property Rights
Freer-Market, Regul.,
and Autocratic
Capitalism
Order of voting/rights/
entitlemnt acquisitions
(child, women, slaves)
Information-Automation
Society
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Evolutionary Convergence
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Some
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Examples:
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Secularism (human-derived
values)
Ecumenicalism (seeing
wisdom in all faiths)
Rationality (logic+empiricism)
Self Expression
Subjective Well Being
Quality of Life
Sustainability
World Awareness
Future Orientation
Political Moderation
Interpersonal Trust
Casualness
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Natural Selection
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Experimentat
ion
Main Actor: Seed
Replication,
Variation,
Chaos,
Contingency,
Early Species
Radiation
(Mostly
Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
Adaptation
Radiation
Evolution
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Palo Alto
Compu (EvoDevo)
(Intersection)
Convergent
Unification
Hierarchy
2007 Accelerating.org
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Using the ECD model, we can look at complex adaptive systems as either:
1. Adaptive Systems (making their evo and devo processes implicit),
2. Evo Devo Systems (making their info processing implicit), or
3. Evo, Compu and Devo Systems (keeping all three perspectives explicit).
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S curve
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Power law
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Bell curve
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Power law
Punctuating and
Stabilizing Selection
Bell curve
(Organism)
Divergent Selection
(Competitive)
Evo / Natural Selection
Self-Organizing
Selection
(Cooperative)
Devo / Self-
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Saturation
occurs in the development of complex adaptive systems at every level
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York
of
hierarchy, from cosmic elements to cell types to family types.
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Alto
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Gerhart
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Gerhart
Ergodicity:
Terminal Differentiation in a Mathematical Context
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Results from a
large number of
small effects that act
additively (normal)
or multiplicatively
(log-normal curve)
and independently.
Good IQ Text
Log-normal
Distributions
across the
Sciences,
Limpert etal.,
BioScience
51(5), 2001.
Great Article!
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Acceleration Studies:
Something Curious Is Going On
Acceleration
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Carl Sagans
Cosmic
Calendar
(Dragons of
Eden, 1977)
Each month
is roughly 1
billion years.
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1B yrs: Protogalaxies
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Developmental Singularity?
8B yrs: Earth
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STEM Compression:
A Curious Process of Universal Development
Acceleration
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2007 Accelerating.org
(ergs/sec/gm)
Galaxies
Stars
Planets (Early)
Ecosystems
Animals (hum. body)
Brains (human)
Culture (human)
Modern Engines
Intel 8080 of the 1970's
Pentium II of the 1990's
Global AI of the 21st C
0.5
2
75
900
20,000 (10^4)
150,000 (10^5)
500,000 (10^5)
10^5 to 10^8
10^10
(10^11)
10^12+
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Eric
Chaisson,
Palo Alto
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Note
World Economic
Performance
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The J Curve
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First-Order Components
are Growth-Limited Hierarchical
Substrates (S and B Curves)
Second-Order
Hyperbolic Growth
Emergence Singularities
and a Limit Singularity
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Examples:
Chaissons Phi
Sagans Cosmic Calendar
STEM Compression
Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998: Real structures in outer space (the
physical world) are being modeled rapidly better and faster in inner, virtual
space (the digital world). By comparison to inner space, outer space is:
Computationally very simple and tractable (transparent)
A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development
Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science
Possibly a rear view mirror on the developmental trajectory of
emergence of universal intelligence
versus
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Non-Autonomous ISS
Many basic physical features of our universe seem very finely and
unreasonably tuned for the emergence of life and complexity in a
universal environment, in the same way genes are tuned for the
emergence of complex organism in a biological environment:
Gravitational
coupling constant
Electromagnetic coupling constant
Fine structure constant
Strong nuclear force
Weak nuclear force
Proton/electron mass ratio
Mass and energy of the universe
Expansion rate of the universe
Uniformity and entropy level of the universe
Speed of light
Nuclear energy levels of Be, C, and O.
Another dozen or so special constants
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Perhaps
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Just
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Science has started to ask such questions, but we are still a long
way from knowing the answers
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Black
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About six billion yrs ago, our universes expansion rate began to
accelerate.
Our local universe is now self-fractionating into local islands,, and
ours will include only the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies (Nagamine
and Loeb 2003)
Each of these supergalaxies, may engage in evolutionarily unique
mergers (natural selection) among all their developed intelligences.
From the black hole intelligences time perspective, such mergers would
occur virtually instantaneously, in no subjective time. This is because
black holes, and only black holes, are a one-way time travel device.
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Applications
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Republicans are
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political Issues
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues
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Democrats are
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political Issues
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues
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Competition
Adaptation
(Organism)
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Evolution, Competition
Development,
Generalized
Computational
Efficiency
(Adaptation)
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Alto
Conrad
M.
Evolutionary
Variation Capacity
Developmental
Programmabilit
y
1988. The Price of Programmability. In: Herken, R. (Ed.), The Universal Turing Machine:
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A Closing Visual:
Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.
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Discussion