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Maintenance
(RCM)
Evolution of Maintenance
Evolution of Maintenance
As times went by, it was detected that many failures
have an almost regular pattern, failing after an
average period. Therefore, one could choose regular
intervals to fix the equipment BEFORE the failure:
Preventive Maintenance
Also know as Time Based Maintenance.
Evolution of Maintenance
However, very often these failures happen in irregular
periods. To avoid an unwanted failure, the periods of
Preventive Maintenance are shortened. If equipment
conditions were known, the maintenance could be later.
Technology development enabled to identify failure
symptoms:
Predictive Maintenance
Also know as Condition Based Maintenance.
Evolution of Maintenance
Many pieces of equipment have sporadic activity (alarms,
stand-by equipments, etc.). However, we must be sure that
they are ready to run. These are "hidden faults. Detect and
prevent hidden failure is called:
Detective Maintenance
Evolution of Maintenance
The different failure modes mean that theres not
one only approach, about Corrective, Preventive or
Predictive Maintenance Programs.
The correct balance will give in return better
equipment reliability, thus the name:
Take it easy,
grandma, not
always!
Its origins
Reliability
Reliability is a broad term that focuses on the ability of a product
to perform its intended function. Mathematically speaking,
reliability can be defined as the probability that an item will
continue to perform its intended function without failure for a
specified period of time under stated conditions.
Reliability is a performance expectation.
Its usually defined at design.
Availability
Depends upon Operation uptime and Operating cycle.
Availability is a performance result.
Equipment history will tell us the availability.
Bibliography: Kardec, Alan y Nascif, Julio - Manuteno- Funo Estratgica, Editora Qualitymark
Availability =
MTBF
MTBF + MTTR
Bibliography: Kardec, Alan y Nascif, Julio - Manuteno- Funo Estratgica, Editora Qualitymark
Availability definitions
Inherent Availability =
Achieved Availability =
MTBF
MTBF + MTTR
MTBM
MTBM + M
Uptime
Operational Availability =
Operation Cycle
250 days
360 days
Downtime
120 days
200 days
9d
= 947 days
400 days
7
233 days
120 days
4
= 947 days
To improve Availability:
Improve MTBM:
Reduce Preventive Programs to a minimum, or, have Preventive intervals as well
defined as possible.
Using Predictive techniques whenever possible
Implementing Maintenance Engineering (RCM, TPM...)
Minimize M:
Implementing Maintenance Engineering (Planning, Logistics...)
Improving personnel technical skills (training)
Developing Integrated Planning (Mntce+Ops+HSE+Inspection+...)
Bibliography: Kardec, Alan y Nascif, Julio - Manuteno- Funo Estratgica, Editora Qualitymark
Improving Productivity
Bibliography: Kardec, Alan y Nascif, Julio - Manuteno- Funo Estratgica, Editora Qualitymark
Availability benchmark
Availability%
Downtimeperyear
Downtimepermonth*
Downtimeperweek
90%
36.5 days
72 hours
16.8 hours
95%
18.25 days
36 hours
8.4 hours
98%
7.30 days
14.4 hours
3.36 hours
99%
3.65 days
7.20 hours
1.68 hours
99.5%
1.83 days
3.60 hours
50.4 min
99.8%
17.52 hours
86.23 min
20.16 min
99.9%("threenines")
8.76 hours
43.2 min
10.1 min
99.95%
4.38 hours
21.56 min
5.04 min
99.99%("fournines")
52.6 min
4.32 min
1.01 min
99.999%("fivenines")
5.26 min
25.9 s
6.05 s
99.9999%("sixnines")
31.5 s
2.59 s
0.605 s
Maintenance Program
Cost US$/HP/year
Corrective (unplanned)
17 to 18
Preventive
11 to 13
NMW Chicago
7 to 9
Maintenance activities
Corrective actions
28
Preventive actions
36
Predictive actions
19
Maintenance studies
17
NMW Chicago
Definitions
Failure rate ()
Failure rate () is defined as the reciprocal of MTBF:
1
(t )
MTBF
Reliability: R(t)
Let P(t) be the probability of failure between 0 and t; reliability is defined as:
R(t) = 1 P(t)
Bibliography: Lafraia, Joo Ricardo - Manual de Confiabilidade, Mantenabilidade e Disponibilidade, Editora Qualitymark
Some math...
R (t ) e
This reinforces the idea that Reliability is function of time, it isnt a definite
number. So, its incorrect to affirm: This equipment has a 0.97 reliability
factor.... We should rather say: This equipment has 97% reliability for
running, lets say, 240 days...
System in series
Let P1=5%, P2=10% and P3=20% be the failure probability of each component of
this system, in a certain period. Which is the reliability of this system, in series?
This system will run, provided that ALL its components run. So, their reliabilities
are multiplied.
R1 = 1 P1 = 1 0.05 = 0.95
R2 = 1 P2 = 1 0.10 = 0.90
R3 = 1 P3 = 1 0.20 = 0.80
R = R1 x R2 x R3 = 0.95 x 0.90 x 0.80 = 0.6840 = 68.4%
System failure probability 31.6%
System failure probability is bigger than each individual component. System
reliability is less than each component.
Bibliography: Lafraia, Joo Ricardo - Manual de Confiabilidade, Mantenabilidade e Disponibilidade, Editora Qualitymark
System in parallel
1
2
3
Let P1=5%, P2=10% and P3=20% be the failure probability of each component of this
system, in parallel, in a given period. Which is the reliability of the system, in parallel?
This system will run until ALL components fail. In this case, the failure probabilities
are multiplied.
P = P1 x P2 x P3 = 0.05 x 0.10 x 0.20 = 0.0010
R = 1 P = 0.999 = 99.9%
System failure probability 0.1%
System failure probability is less than each component. System reliability is bigger
than each component.
Bibliography: Lafraia, Joo Ricardo - Manual de Confiabilidade, Mantenabilidade e Disponibilidade, Editora Qualitymark
Mixed systems
2
4
3
5
If P1=10%, P2=5%, P3=15%, P4=2% and P5=20%, which is the system reliability?
123
45
System
P123= 0.2733
P45= 0.2160
P45= 0.2160
Redundancy
A
B
C
0.729
0.243
0.027
None running:
0.001
Redundancy
A
B
C
As the plant needs at least 3,600 gpm, to supply this, there will be these cases:
AB C
0.72675
A B notC
0.12825
A notB C
0.08075
Systems in series
Systems in parallel
Component Redundancy
System Redundancy
Which of these systems would have a better overall reliability
(lets assume all components have the same reliability R)?
AA and BB subsystems reliability:
1 - (1-R)2 =1 1 + 2R R2 = 2R R2
R2
System reliability:
System reliability:
R system redundancy = 1 (1-R2)2
Active Redundancy:
Passive Redundancy:
One equipment is
operating, and the other
one is at stand-by,
starting operating after
the failure of the first
one, pending upon a
switch system.
where: 1 is the failure rate for each unit when both are working and
2 is the failure rate of the surviving unit when the other one has
failed.
If 21 = 2, then:
In a system with active redundancy, reliability of each of the two components for
100 days is R=0.96, when sharing the load. If one compontents fails, the
surviving one will have a 50% increase in its failure rate. Which is it the system
reliability for 100 days?
0.000615100
e 20.00041100
e
2 0.00041 0.000615
R(100) e 0.082 4 e 0.0615 e 0.082
R(100) e 20.00041x100
Rsw e10
104
= 1/MTBF
R (10000) e
10000
28000
(1 0.9900
1
10000)
28000
Bathtub Curve
Bathtub Curve
Early Life:
sub-standard materials
often caused by poor / variable manufacturing and poor
quality control
prevented by effective quality control, burn-in, and run-in, debugging techniques
weak components eventually replaced by good ones
probabilistic treatment less important
Useful Life:
random or chance failures
may be caused by unpredictable sudden stress
accumulations outside and inside of the components beyond
the design strength
over sufficiently long periods frequency of occurrence () is
approximately constant
failure rate used extensively in Safety & Reliability analyses
Wear-out period:
symptom of component ageing
prediction is important for replacement and maintenance
policy
Failure modes
Common sense tells that the best way to optimize the availability of plants is to
implement some Preventive maintenance.
Preventive maintenance means fixing or replacing some pieces of equipments and/or
components in fixed intervals. Useful lifespan of equipments may be calculated with
Failure Statistical Analysis, enabling Maintenance Department to implement Preventive
Programs.
This is true for some simple pieces of equipment and components, which may have a
prevailing failure mode. Many components in contact with process fluids have a regular
lifespan, as well as cyclic equipment, due to fatigue and corrosion.
But, for many pieces of equipment theres no connection between reliability and time.
Furthermore, as seen in Reliability curves, defining the optimum interval for Preventive
maintenance may be a hard task. Besides, fixing or even replacing the equipment may
bring you back to Infant Mortality period...
Time
Turnarounds
Turnarounds
1) Ops dont have enough confidence that it will be done during routine maintenance.
To improve TAR results, reversing the vicious cycle below, Maintenance
management has to improve Routine Maintenance!
To much to
be done
during TAR
Many
equipments
left to TAR
Many
equipments
left to
Routine
Maintenance
Not in excess
equipments to
be done
during TAR
TAR wont be
able to
perform all
that has to be
done
Good routine
maintenance
Unit running
well
Turnarounds
2) Because they dont feel comfortable running with an equipment momentarily without
spare the same way when we have a flat tire, we just drive with the spare tire
enough to hit the tire repair shop
Consider these two pumps in a Passive Redundancy
(one will be as stand-by). Assume that during the first
100 h after a General Maintenance such a pump will
have a 70% reliability, and after this, for an one year
period, it would run with 97% reliability (which are
reasonable assumptions!!!).
If General Maintenance is performed in a Preventive or Predictive Program, during
normal operations, during repair time the unit will be running pending upon a unique
pump, with a 97% reliability.
If during TAR both pumps will be under General Maintenance, during the first 100
hours the system reliability (considering a perfect switch) would be 94.5% (using the
R(t) = e-t(1+t) formula) . So, the unit would run for a period of time with two
available pumps, but with an overall reliability below if it would be running with only
one pump!
No
Will the Failure affect
adversely the Mission, Vision No
and Core Values of the
Company?
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Deploy Monitoring
techniques
No
Yes
Predictive Maintenance
Preventive
Maintenance
Run-to-fail?
Prevent it
breaking
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Is it cheaper to prevent it
breaking than the loss of
production?
Yes
Re-design it Prevent it
breaking
No
Let it break
Is it cheaper to prevent
it breaking than to fix it?
Yes
Prevent it
breaking
No
Let it break