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Chapter 7
Probability Distributions:
Information about the Future
Objectives:
To define discrete random variables.
To define continuous random variables.
To describe probability notation.
Definitions:
x1, x2 , ... , xn .
Example:
Toss a die and observe the outcome of the toss.
First list the three steps:
State the variable:
X = the outcome of the toss of the die.
x1 1, x2 2, x3 3, x4 4, x5 5, and x6 6.
Value of X
1
2
3
4
5
6
Probability
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
Probability Distributions:
Chapter Name
Information about the Future
Section 7.2Section
Discrete
##Probability
Section Name
Distributions
Objectives:
To describe the characteristics of a discrete random variable.
Definition:
Example:
Create a probability distribution for X, the number of heads in four
tosses of a coin.
Solution:
To begin, list all possible values of X.
Then, to find the probability distribution, we need to calculate the
probability of each outcome.
Tossing a Coin
x
P(X=x)
0
1
2
3
4
1
16
4
16
6
16
4
16
1
16
P x 1.0
Simple Events
TTTT
HTTT
THTT
TTHT
TTTH
HHTT
HTTH
TTHH
THHT
HHHT
HHTH
HTHH
THHH
HHHH
THTH
HTHT
Example:
The probability distribution for the price of a stock thirty days from
now is given below. Find the probability the price of the stock
with be greater than $56.
Solution:
Stock Prices
x
P(X=x)
54.5
.05
55.0
.10
55.5
.25
56.0
.30
56.5
.20
57.0
.10
P x 1.0
P X 56 P X 56.5 P X 57.0
.20 .10
.30
Objectives:
To define and describe the expected value of a discrete
random variable.
Expected Value:
The expected value of the random variable X is the
mean of the random variable X. It is denoted by E(X).
E X x p x , where p x P X x .
Example:
John sells cars. Calculate the expected value of the number of cars
John sells per day.
Solution:
Car Sales
x
P(X=x)
x P X x
.15
.30
0.30
2
3
.35
0.70
.15
0.45
.05
0.20
E X 1.65
E X x P X x
0 .15 1 .30
2 .35 3 .15
4 .05
Example:
Investment B
Profit
Probability
Profit
Probability
$1200
.1
$1500
.3
$950
.2
$800
.1
$130
.4
$100
.2
$575
.1
$250
.2
$1400
.2
$690
.2
Solution:
It is difficult to determine which plan is better by simply looking at
the table.
Lets use the expected value to compare the plans.
For Investment A:
E(X) = (1200)(.1) + (950)(.2) + (130)(.4) + (575)(.1) + (1400)(.2)
= 120 + 190 + 52 57.50 280
= $24.50
For Investment B:
E(X) = (1500)(.3) + (800)(.1) + (100)(.2) + (250)(.2) + (690)(.2)
= 450 + 80 20 50 138
= $322.00
Best option
Objectives:
To define and describe the variance of a discrete random
variable.
V X = x - p x
2
Standard Deviation= V X
Variance in investments reflects greater risks.
Investment B
Profit
Probability
Profit
Probability
$1200
.1
$1500
.3
$950
.2
$800
.1
$130
.4
$100
.2
$575
.1
$250
.2
$1400
.2
$690
.2
Solution:
For Investment A:
E X A A 24.50
Probability
x -
p x
24.50
0.4 4452.10
$130
.4
2
575
24.50
0.1 35,940.03
$575
.1
2
1400
24.50
0.2 405,840.05
$1400
.2
V X $755,722.26
Standard Deviation V X 755,722.24 $869.32
$1200
.1
Solution:
For Investment B:
E X B B 322
Probability
$1500
.3
$800
.1
$100
.2
$250
.2
$690
.2
Standard Deviation
x -
p x
100
322
0.2 35,616.80
2
250 322 0.2 65,436.80
2
690 322 0.2 204,828.80
V X $745,036.00
V X 745,036.00 $863.15
2
Solution:
Since V X A 755,722.26 745,036.00 V X B , in terms of
risk Investment B is considered the better option because it
carries slightly less risk.
Objectives:
To define a Binomial random variable.
To calculate probabilities using the Binomial distribution.
To calculate the expected value of a Binomial random variable.
To calculate the variance of a Binomial random variable.
Definition:
Example:
Toss a coin 5 times and observe the number of heads. Define the
experiment in terms of our definition of a binomial experiment.
Solution:
i. There are only two outcomes, heads or tails.
ii. The experiment will consist of five tosses of a coin.
(Hence: n = 5.)
iii. The probability of getting a head (success) is 1 and does not
1
change from trial to trial. (Hence: p = .)
2
iv. The outcome of one toss will not affect other tosses.
v. The variable of interest is the count of the number of heads in
5 tosses.
Example:
Toss a coin 4 times and observe the number of heads. Create the
probability distribution for the number of heads.
Solution:
Tossing a Coin
Events
Number
of Heads
TTTT
HHHH
Probability
1
16
4
16
6
16
4
16
1
16
P X x C p 1 p
n
x
nx
Cxn
n!
, where n ! n n 1 n 2 ...1 and 0!=1.
x ! n x !
Example:
What is the probability of getting exactly 7 tails in 18 coin
tosses?
Solution:
n = 18, p = .5, x = 7
P X x Cxn p x 1 p
7
nx
18 7
1
1
P X 7 C718 1
2
2
7
11
18! 1 1
2
11!7! 2
Example:
A quality control expert at a large factory estimates that 10% of
all batteries produced are defective. If a sample of 20 batteries
are taken, what is the probability that no more than 3 are
defective?
Solution:
n = 20, p = .1, x = 3, but this time we need to look at the
probability that no more than three are defective, which is
P(X 3).
P X 3 P X 0 P X 1 P X 2 P X 3
C020 0.1
0.867
20
19
Formulas:
Binomial expected value and variance can be defined with the
following formulas.
E X np
V X np 1 p
Example:
A quality control expert at a large factory estimates that 10% of
all batteries produced are defective. If a sample of 20 batteries
is taken, what is the expected value, variance, and standard
deviation of the number of defective batteries?
Solution:
n 20, p .1
E X 20 0.1 2
V X 20 0.1 1 0.1 1.8
Objectives:
To define a Poisson random variable.
To calculate probabilities using the Poisson distribution.
Definitions:
Example:
Suppose that the dial-up Internet connection at your home goes
out an average of 0.75 times every hour. If you plan to be
connected to the internet for 3 hours one afternoon, what is the
probability that you will stay connected the entire time?
Assume that the dial-up disconnections follow a Poisson
distribution.
Solution:
x = 0, (0.75)(3) = 2.25
0.1054
Example:
A typist averages 1 typographical error per paragraph. If the
document has 4 paragraphs, what is the probability that there
will be less than 5 mistakes?
Solution:
x < 5, = (4)(1) = 4
This time we need to look at the probability that less than five
mistakes will occur, which is P(X < 5).
P(X < 5) = P(X 4)
0.6288
Example:
A fast food restaurant averages 2 incorrect orders every 4 hours.
What is the probability that they will get at least 3 orders wrong in
any given day between 11 AM and 11PM? Assume that fast food
errors follow a Poisson distribution.
Solution:
x 3, = (3)(2) = 6
This time we need to look at the probability that at least three
wrong orders will occur, which is P(X 3).
P(X 3) = 1 P(X < 3)
= 1 P(X 2)
e 6 6 0 e 6 6 1 e 6 6 2
1
0!
1!
2!
0.9380
Objectives:
To define a Hypergeometric random variable.
To calculate probabilities using the Hypergeometric distribution.
To calculate the expected value of a Hypergeometric random
variable.
To calculate the variance of a Hypergeometric random variable.
Definitions:
CxACnNxA
P X x
, where 0 x min A, n
N
Cn
Example:
At the local grocery store there are 50 boxes of cereal on the
shelf, half of which contain a prize. Suppose you buy 4 boxes
of cereal. What is the probability that 3 boxes contain a prize?
Solution:
A = 25, x = 3, N = 50, n = 4
C325C450325
P X 3
C450
C325C125
C450
2300 25
0.2497
230300
Example:
A produce distributor is carrying 10 boxes of Granny Smith apples
and 8 boxes of Golden Delicious apples. If 6 boxes are randomly
delivered to one local market, what is the probability that at least 4
of the boxes delivered contain Golden Delicious apples?
Solution:
A = 8, x 4, N = 18, n = 6
P X 4 P X 4 P X 5 P X 6
C48C61848 C58C61858 C68C61868
18
18
C6
C6
C618
70 45 56 10 28 1
Formulas:
Hypergeometric expected value and variance can be defined
with the following formulas.
E X n
A
N
A
A N n
V X n 1
N
N
N
Example:
A produce distributor is carrying 10 boxes of Granny Smith apples
and 8 boxes of Golden Delicious apples. If 6 boxes are randomly
delivered to one local market, what is the expected value and
variance of the distribution?
Solution:
A = 8, N = 18, n = 6
8
8
E X 6
3
18
160
8
8 18 6
V X 6 1
18
18
18
153