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inclusive, describing relative possibility/chance

or likelihood an event will occur.

Movie

5- 2

empirical, and subjective.

The

Classical

definition

applies when

there are n

equally likely

outcomes.

The Empirical

(Also called relative

frequency)

definition applies

when the number of

times the event

happens is divided

by the number of

observations.

Subjective

probability is

based on

personal

judgment

Definitions continued

5- 3

Continued

5- 4

An Outcome is

the particular

result of an

experiment.

An Event is

the collection

of one or more

outcomes of an

experiment.

numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

One possible event: The

occurrence of an even

number. That is, we collect

the outcomes 2, 4, and 6.

Definitions continued

Exclusive if the

occurrence of any one

event means that none

of the others can occur

at the same time. i.e. if

one and only one can

take place at a time.

Mutually exclusive:

On any toss of a coin,

either head or tail

may turn up. Not

both.

5- 5

if the occurrence of one event

does not affect the occurrence

of another.

Independence: Rolling a 2

on the first throw does not

influence the probability of

a 3 on the next throw. It is

still a one in 6 chance.

Mutually Exclusive Events

5- 6

If two events

A and B are mutually

exclusive, the

Special Rule of

Addition states that the

Probability of A or B

occurring equals the sum of

their respective

probabilities.

5- 7

probability of an event occurring by subtracting the

probability of the event not occurring from 1.

the complement of A,

P(A) + P(~A) = 1 or P(A) = 1 - P(~A).

5- 8

events that are not

mutually exclusive,

then P(A or B) is

given by the

following formula:

5- 9

A and B

A

Addition

5- 10

stereo, 175 said they had a TV, and 100 said they had

both. 5 said they had neither.

Stereo

320

Both

100

TV

175

EXAMPLE 5

5- 11

that two or more events will happen concurrently.

An example would

be the event that a

student has both a

stereo and TV in his

or her dorm room.

Joint Probability

5- 12

probability of a particular event occurring,

given that another event has occurred.

given that the event B has occurred is

written P(A|B).

Formula: P(A/B) = P(AB) /P(B)

Conditional Probability

5- 13

The General

Rule of

Multiplication is

used to find the joint

probability that two

events will occur.

events A and B, the

joint probability that

both events will happen

is found by multiplying

the probability that

event A will happen by

the conditional

probability of B given

that A has occurred.

General Multiplication Rule

5- 14

P(A and B), is given by the

following formula:

P(A and B) = P(A)P(B/A)

or

P(A and B) =

P(B)P(A/B)

General Multiplication

Rule

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