Vulnerability Assessment of Tropical

Cyclones in Coastal Bangladesh

Presented BY
Istiak Ahmed Bhuyan
Thomas Linsenmeyer
Nashid Kamal Khadem
Kang Shou Lu
Department of Geography and Environmental
Planning
Towson University

The 36th Annual Applied Geography Conference October

30-November 1, 2013
Annapolis, Maryland 76102

Introduction
History of Cyclones in Bangladesh
Last 50 years there are 7 major Cyclones, that
cause deaths more than 10,000.
Two of them (1970 & 1991) are in the Worlds
deadliest Natural Disaster list.
Geography of Bangladesh makes even Low
intensity Cyclones deadly.
Tropical Cyclone Mahasen, is forecast to make
landfall late Thursday or early Friday (BDT) in
southeastern Bangladesh, near the city of
Chittagong. It is likely to bring strong wind and
heavy rain to the surrounding region.

Introduction
Bangladesh is widely recognized to be one of the most
vulnerable countries to climate change. Cyclones and
storm surges have frequently devastated lives and
property in coastal zone Bangladesh.
Most studies focused on the economic loss, landfall of
the cyclone but fewer attempt has been made to
asses the shelter capacity and social vulnerability.
This study attempts to assess the vulnerability of
affected population on different climatic scenarios and
shelter capacity.
It will help the policy makers, emergency
management agencies for better evacuation planning.

Introduction
Objectives
Determine inundated areas under
different surge scenarios
Assess the population at risk due to
storm surges of cyclones
Assess the capacity of and needs for
cyclone shelters threatened in coastal
Bangladesh

Study Area

Coastal Districts of
Bangladesh

Methods
1. Data Sourses
Cyclones
Cyclone impact data including Wind Speed, Surge Height, and Tracks.
SOURCE :Bangladesh Metrological Department (1960-2009)

Population
2010 Census Data (processed by the authors) at the
district level. Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

Elevation
Digital Elevation Model (DEM) , USGS, 90 m x 90 m
Shuttle Radar Terrain Model (SRTM)
USGS, CEGIS, CDMP.

Cyclone shelters
Point data with attributes including capacity, usage
status, etc, DMB, CDMP.

Methods
2. Analytical Sequence of the Study

Cyclone Impact Data

(Wind Speed, Surge
Height) Collection
SOURCE :Bangladesh
Metrological Department
(1960-2009)

Historical Maximum
Surge Height
Historical Average Surge
Height
Predicted Extreme Surge
Height*

Socio-Economic Data
SOURCE: Bangladesh
Bureau of Statistics

Vulnerability Assessment

Shelters at Risk

Population at Risk

Digital Elevation Model

(DEM)
Shuttle Radar Terrain
Model (SRTM)

GIS Model
(ArcGIS Model Builder)

Inundation Map
Historical Average
Historical Maximum
Predicted Extreme

Areas at Risk

*Predicted Extreme Surge height for wind speed with return period 100 years

Methods
3. Deriving Assessment Scenarios
Mainly Based on Storm Surge Heights
Historical (1960-2008)
Predicted for the worst scenario

Three Scenarios
Historical Average Surge Heights = 4.6 m
Historical Maximum Surge Heights = 10.6 m
Predicted Extreme Surge Heights = 11.6

Methods
3. Deriving Assessment Scenarios
Prediction of Extreme Surge height
Return period : T = 100 years selected as
the extreme case
Log Pearson III: used for estimating the wind
speed:
Return period (yr)
T=25
T=50
T=100
T=200
Wind Speed (km/h)

241

260

277

293

Empirical Relationship between Surge height

and Wind speed

Methods
3. Deriving Assessment Scenarios
Prediction of Extreme Surge height
Relationship
between
Surge height
and Wind
speed
At the 95%
confidence
level
Surge height
= 11.6 m
(should be
reported

Methods
4. ArcGIS Models for Surge Runup and
Mapping

Cyclone Impact Data

(Wind Speed, Surge
Height) Collection
SOURCE :Bangladesh
Metrological Department
(1960-2009)

Historical Maximum
Surge Height
Historical Average Surge
Height
Predicted Extreme Surge
Height*

Digital Elevation Model

(DEM)
Shuttle Radar Terrain
Model (SRTM)

GIS Model
(ArcGIS Model Builder)

Inundation Map
Historical Average
Historical Maximum
Predicted Extreme

Results
1. Summary of Vulnerability under Three
Surge Scenarios
Surge
Scenarios

Average
Height

Maximum
Height

Extreme
Height

Total

Inundated
Area (sq Km)

7,035.28

15.63

22,176.99

49.26

23,227.26

51.60

45,017.38

15,271,630 51.95

22,550,672

76.71

22,779,315 77.48 29,398,509

Affected
Population
Affected
Shelters

570

20.39

2,211

79.08

2,313

82.73

2,796

Capacity of
the Shelters

586,593

19.64

2,337,791

78.28

2,457,997

82.30

2,986,577

Results

2. Areas at Risk (1/3)

Inundation at historical average surge height (h=4.6m)

Results

2. Areas at Risk (2/3)

Inundation at historical maximum surge height (h=10.6m)

Results

2. Areas at Risk (3/3)

Inundation at predicted extreme surge height (h=11.6m)

Results

3. Population and Shelters at Risk

Risk at Average Surge Height (4.6m)

Results

3. Population and Shelters at Risk

Risk at Maximum Surge Height (10.6m)

Results

3. Population and Shelters at Risk

Risk at the Extreme Surge Height (11.6m)

Results (cont)
For surge height of 4.6m total 15,271,630 people will be
affected with 15.63% of the region will be inundated. But
the situation is more severe for the predicted extreme
condition with 51.60% area inundated affection 22,779,315
people. Both the cases, the existing cyclone shelters are
inadequate to provide the necessary support.
To minimize the damage, instead of developing large
cyclone shelters, a dense network of small, sturdy and safe
multipurpose buildings should be developed. Considering
the

population

density,

cyclone

shelters

should

be

established within a 2 km walking distance of households

and villages.

Limitations
Lack of High Resolution Terrain Data
Less availability of Cyclone related data
i.e. tidal situations, wave simulations etc
Socio-Economic data are estimated from
2010 census report does not have the
migration population
The model built in this simulation does
not take into account the effects that
reefs, buildings, rivers, canals, streams,
and other factors may have on the
cyclone surge, and therefore on the
actual area impacted by the surge run-up

Usages
This study will be useful for policy makers,
emergency management agencies, and public
health personnel to help reduce damage caused
by cyclones in Bangladesh.
This work will bridge the existing research gap
and will provide a research framework for future
studies.
Should provide useful information about cyclone
risk management and should be helpful in
assigning priority for the development of very
high risk areas due to surge, and the
construction and development sustainable
cyclone shelters.
This study may have considerable management
implications for emergency preparedness,

Conclusion
This study has examined the extent of storm
surge for different scenarios and the
inundation map was produced for the coastal
zone of Bangladesh.
Attempts were also made to identify the
vulnerable population group with shelters
affected by surge
From an academic point of view, there is a
need for further research on disaster-induced
risks, particularly in developing countries
where the topic has received scant attention .

Thank You!

Questions and Suggestions?

Contact
Istiak Bhuyan
ibhuya1@students.towson.edu
Kang Shou Lu, PhD
kshoulu@towson.edu
Department of Geography and Environmental Planning
Towson University, Maryland, USA
The 36th Annual Applied Geography Conference October
30-November 1, 2013
Annapolis, Maryland 76102