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  • Factors Affecting Demand For Food F 09

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    This document discusses several key factors that affect demand for food, including age structure, dependency ratios, and increasing consumption of meat as incomes rise. Developing countries typically have younger populations with higher dependency ratios, meaning more dependents per working adult. As developing countries develop and their populations age, total food needs will continue to rise for decades even if fertility declines. Additionally, as incomes rise people consume more calories, replacing grains with meat. Producing meat requires many more plant calories than eating plants directly, so increased meat consumption substantially increases total food demand. A pessimistic future scenario with less development progress could mean 98% growth in food demand over 50 years versus 101% under more optimistic conditions.

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    Factors Affecting Demand for Food f 09

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    Factors Affecting Demand for Food f 09

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    This document discusses several key factors that affect demand for food, including age structure, dependency ratios, and increasing consumption of meat as incomes rise. Developing countries typically have younger populations with higher dependency ratios, meaning more dependents per working adult. As developing countries develop and their populations age, total food needs will continue to rise for decades even if fertility declines. Additionally, as incomes rise people consume more calories, replacing grains with meat. Producing meat requires many more plant calories than eating plants directly, so increased meat consumption substantially increases total food demand. A pessimistic future scenario with less development progress could mean 98% growth in food demand over 50 years versus 101% under more optimistic conditions.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    91 views12 pages

    Factors Affecting Demand For Food F 09

    Uploaded by

    inwzaest
    This document discusses several key factors that affect demand for food, including age structure, dependency ratios, and increasing consumption of meat as incomes rise. Developing countries typically have younger populations with higher dependency ratios, meaning more dependents per working adult. As developing countries develop and their populations age, total food needs will continue to rise for decades even if fertility declines. Additionally, as incomes rise people consume more calories, replacing grains with meat. Producing meat requires many more plant calories than eating plants directly, so increased meat consumption substantially increases total food demand. A pessimistic future scenario with less development progress could mean 98% growth in food demand over 50 years versus 101% under more optimistic conditions.

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    of 12

    Factors Affecting Demand for

    Food
    Text adapted from
    The World Food Problem
    Leathers & Foster, 2009

    ttp://www.amazon.com/World-Food-ProblemToward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389

    Age Structure
    Population Pyramids
    indicate age structure

    Developing countries
    have much higher
    percentage of young
    people

    Developed countries
    have even distribution
    of age groups

    http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy1.jpg
    http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy2.jpg

    Momentum
    Changes in age

    structure affect
    population for decades
    Example: Baby Boom

    If a developing country
    achieves replacement
    fertility rates for adults

    Baby boom age pyramid

    Population growth
    continues for decades
    Because there are more
    children

    Age structure for China (1990)

    Great Leap
    Forward
    Famine, 19591960
    http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood
    /images/charts/p_19a_m.gif

    Dependency Ratios
    Ratio of dependents to
    working adults
    Burden of dependent
    children per adult
    greater in developing
    country

    Developed nation ex:


    0.21 children/adult
    Developing nation ex:
    .77 chlidren/adult

    http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy1.jpg

    Age Structure determines future


    calorie needs
    Calorie needs are different at
    different ages
    Age structure allows prediction
    of future calorie needs
    as current population grows up

    Need for food can grow faster


    than the population
    if more adults than children
    Adults require more food

    http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy2.jpg

    Other factors affecting future


    food needs
    Number of Pregnant women
    Amount of physical activity
    Height of population
    indicates nutrition level

    Population + demand/person
    + more meat
    Huge synergistic effect

    Sierra Leone 8 year


    old girl

    More Meat
    As incomes rise, people eat
    more meat

    less cereals

    Meat production requires


    plant calories

    Average 6:1 conversion ratio

    Developing countries eat

    4,224 Calories from plants


    2,255 directly from plants
    Plus 315 meat calories
    (12.5%)
    Requires 1,969 plant calories
    to produce meat

    http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/detail/20/63/23036320.jpg

    More Meat
    If people in developing
    countries ate 15% meat
    Would increase total
    plant calories required
    to 4,591/person
    Equivalent increase in
    demand to 8.7% increase
    in population

    http://delishfood.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/img_4381.JPG

    More Meat
    If people in
    developing nations ate
    amount of meat eaten
    in developed nations
    (27% calories)
    Would require 6,200
    plant-derived calories
    47% increase

    http://i157.photobucket.com/albums/t49/cinzia326/7025.jpg

    Optimistic Future Scenario:


    Next 50 yrs
    Per capita income increases
    Population growth of 50%
    Fertility declines

    Food supplies keep pace with

    Morocco: middle income


    country

    demand
    Life expectancy increases
    Average height increases
    Age structure changes toward
    fewer children
    Food demand grows by 101%

    Same impact if pessimistic future


    Self-Correction on impact
    with lower quality of life:

    If prosperity declines
    Food supply doesnt keep up

    with demand
    Population grows more rapidly
    Less decline in fertility rates

    But need less food because


    Age structure: more children
    Average height: less change
    Calories per capita low
    Undernutrition

    Sierra Leone mother


    http://www.voices-unabridged.org/photo_gala/gala_dec_2006_pt_18.jpg

    Dietary diversification small


    Impact: 98% growth in food
    demand

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