Project Title: A Study on Adequacy Assessment of

Generation System

Papers Review
Oresanya Babajide Oluwatosin
Ayool Parach Daniel Deng
Arinda Sam

Outline
Abstract:

1. Introduction

2. Generation adequate assessment

3. Approaches or Techniques
Analytical method
Monte Carlo Simulation
4. Reliability Indices
5. Reviews of papers related to the topic
6. Conclusion

1. Introduction
Electrical energy is vital for future development of mankind.
Electrical power system: The purpose is to generate electrical energy, transmit and
distribute it through an extensive network to supply its customers as economically as
possible and with a reasonable degree of continuity and quality.
Power system reliability: A measure of the ability of an electric power system to
provide acceptable electricity supply. Reliability is a key element in power system
operation and planning.
Reliability is the probability of a device or system performing its function
adequately, for the period of time intended, under the operating conditions intended .

Reliability can be measured through the mathematical concept of probability by

identifying the probability of successful performance with the degree of reliability. i.e.
a device or system is said to perform satisfactorily if it does not fail during the time of
service.
On the other hand, a broad range of devices are expected to undergo failures, be
repaired and then returned to service during their entire useful life. In this case a more
appropriate measure of reliability is the availability of the device, which is defined as;
the availability of a repairable device is the proportion of time, during the intended
time of service, that the device is in, or ready for service.
A modern power system is complex, highly integrated and very large and can be
divided into appropriate subsystems or functional areas that can be analyzed
separately.
These functional areas are Generation (HL 1), Transmission (HL 2) and
distribution (HL 3).
Generation (HL 1); to make sure that enough capacity is available to meet the load
demand at any time.

Generation system reliability evaluation; A power system, as any other system,

consists of a set of components interconnected in some purposeful way.
The object of a reliability study is to derive suitable measures of successful
performance on the basis of component failure information and system
configuration. For generation reliability studies the components of interest are the
generating units and system configuration refers to the specific units scheduled to
serve the load.
Reliability studies are conducted for two purposes.
Short-term evaluations; assist in day to day operating decisions
Long term evaluations(indices); These are performed to assist in system planning
i.e. used by system planners and the authorities to decide on and advice for new
investments in building new generation capacities.

The project (review) will focus on Generation system reliability evaluation, which is a
part of power system.
Reliability evaluation can be done by determining the reliability indices using the two
approaches viz,
Analytical technique
Monte Carlo Simulation
The evaluation is normally illustrated by application to the Roy Billiton Test System
(RBTS).

Purpose of the Study

The aim of this project (review) is to analyze and look into the effect of increased load
demand on the system reliability and decreased load demand on system reliability and
also the effect of increase in failure rates of generating units on the system reliability.
The effect of increase in the load on the system results to increase in reliability
indices, which in turn decrease the system reliability.
On the other hand, if the load on system decreases, the reliability indices are
decreased and this results to the generating system reliability being increased.
And increase in the failure rates also decreases the generating system reliability.

2. Generation adequate assessment

General Concepts
Generation system reliability evaluation is also termed as generating capacity
adequacy assessment. It is divided into Adequacy and Security.
Adequacy: Adequacy relates to the existence of sufficient facilities within the system
to satisfy the consumer load demand or system operational constraints.
These includes the facilities necessary to generate sufficient energy and the associated
transmission and distribution facilities required to transport the energy to the actual
consumer load points.
Adequacy is therefore associated with static conditions which do not include system
dynamic and transient disturbances.

Security relates to the ability of the system to respond to dynamic or transient

disturbances arising within the system. Security is therefore associated with the
response of the system to whatever perturbations it is subject to.
Security assessment involves system transient responses and cascading sequences
after a disturbance. Transient responses include the fluctuations of both the system
frequency and bus voltages. If the fluctuations exceed certain operating limits,
cascading sequences, such as line and generator tripping, may occur and persist until
the system completely separates or collapses.
These effects may not be properly accounted for in adequacy studies and must be
captured in security evaluations.
Although most research has been devoted to the adequacy assessment of bulk power
system reliability, some concerns have recently shifted to security evaluations that
also integrate the adequacy studies.
In this study, the reliability equations will be focused on the generation system
adequacy.

Functional Zones and Hierarchical Levels:

Hierarchical Level l (HLI) is concerned with only the generation facilities.

Hierarchical Level 2 (HL2) includes both generation and transmission facilities.
HL3 includes all three functional zones in an assessment of consumer load point
adequacy.
HL3 studies are not usually conducted directly due to the enormity of the problem in a
practical system.
Analysis is usually performed in the distribution functional zone in which the input
points mayor may not be considered to be fully reliable.
Functional zone studies are often done which do not include the hierarchical levels
above them.

Generation System (HL1) Studies: In a generation system study, the total system
generation is examined to determine its adequacy to meet the total system load
requirement. This activity is usually termed generating capacity reliability
evaluation. The transmission system and its ability to move the generated energy to
the consumer load points is ignored in generating system adequacy assessment. The
basic technique, used in the past was the percentage reserve method. In this approach,
the required reserve is a fixed percentage of either the installed capacity or the
predicted load. This andvother criteria, such as a reserve equal to one or more of the
largest units, have now been largely replaced by probabilistic methods which respond
to and reflect the actual factors that influence the reliability of the system.

 Composite System (HL2) Studies: Adequacy analysis at this

level is usually termed composite system or bulk transmission
system evaluation.
HL2 studies can be used to assess the adequacy of an existing
or proposed system including the impact of various
reinforcement alternatives at both the generation and
transmission levels.
Two sets of indices: individual bus (load points) indices and
overall system indices. The system indices provide an
assessment of overall adequacy. There are many
complications in HL2 studies associated with load flow
calculations, contingency analysis, overload alleviation,
generation rescheduling, load curtailment philosophy, etc.

3. Approaches or Techniques to calculate risks indices

Analytical method
Monte Carlo Simulation
Analytical methods and Monte Carlo simulation utilize different techniques to assess
generation and load models.
Analytical techniques use mathematical and statistical models to represent the
system elements. The system risk indices are obtained by solving mathematical
models.
Monte Carlo Simulation, on the other hand, simulates the actual process and the
random behavior of the system. The reliability indices are obtained by observing the
simulated operating history of the system.


Reliability Indices
The most widely used reliability indices in the generating system adequacy
assessment are the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and Loss of Energy Expectation
(LOEE).
Adequacy Indices in HL1 Studies: Loss of load expectation (LOLE), loss of
energy expectation (LOEE), loss of load frequency (LOLF), and loss of load
duration (LOLD) and can be calculated using quite different approaches using
Monte Carlo methods.

LOLE(days/yr or hr/yr): is the average number of days or hours in a given period

(usually one year) in which the daily peak load or hourly load is expected to
exceed the available generating capacity.

Pi is the probability of system state i and S is the set of all system states associated
with loss of load.

LOEE(MwHr/yr): is the expected energy not supplied by the generating system

due to the load demand exceeding the available generating capacity

is the loss of load for system state

LOLF:

where Fi is the frequency of departing system state i and f; is the portion of Fi which
corresponds to not going through the boundary wall between the loss-of-Ioad state set
and the no-Ioss-of-Ioad state set.

: Frequency and duration are a basic extension of the LOLE index in that they
identify the expected frequency of encountering a deficiency and the expected
duration of the deficiencies.


Adequacy Indices in H L2 Studies
The adequacy index concepts used in HLl studies can be extended to composite
system adequacy assessment. More indices, however, are required to reflect composite
system features.

PLC: Probability of Load Curtailments

Where Pi is the probability of system state i and S is the set of all system states
associated with load curtailment.

EFLC: Expected Frequency of Load Curtailments (occ./yr). This index has the
same definition as the LOLF at HLl studies. In composite system adequacy
assessment, it is a difficult task to calculate the frequency index.

EDLC-Expected Duration of Load Curtailments (hr/yr)

ADLC: Average Duration of Load Curtailments (hr/disturbance)

ELC-Expected Load Curtailments (MW /yr)

where is the load curtailment in system state i.

EDNS: Expected Demand Not Supplied (MW).

EENS: Expected Energy Not Supplied (MWh/yr)

where Di is the duration of system state i. This index is similar to the LOEE index in
HLl studies. It is an important index in composite system adequacy assessment.

BPECI-Bulk Power/Energy Curtailment Index (MWh/MW-yr)

Where L is the annual system peak load in MW


Adequacy Indices in Distribution System Evaluation
There are three basic load-point indices in distribution system adequacy assessment.
They are load-point failure rate , load-point outage duration , and load-point annual
unavailability . Overall distribution system performance indices can be calculated
using the three basic load-point indices. These indices can be used to indicate the
past or future performance of the system.

SAIFI: System Average Interruption Frequency Index (interruptions/system

customer/yr)

where are the failure rate and the number of customers at load point i respectively; R
is the set of load points in the system.

SAIDI: System Average Interruption Duration Index (hr/system customer /yr)

where is the annual unavailability or outage time (in hr/yr) at load point i.

CAIFI: Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index (interruptions/customer

affected/yr)

where Mi is the number of customers affected at load point i.

CAIDI: Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (hr/customer interruption)

ENS-Energy Not Supplied (kWh/yr).

Where is the average load (in kW) connected to load point i and is the annual outage
time (in hr/yr) at the load point.

AENS-Average Energy Not Supplied (kWh/customer/yr)

 Generating System Adequacy Assessment

(single-area generating system adequacy assessment-state
duration sampling method)
Generation capacity model, Load model, Risk model. The
generation and load models are convolved to form an appropriate
risk model where the element of interest is the risk of generation
capacity less than the load. In short, adequacy evaluation of
generation systems consists of three general steps:
1. Create a generation capacity model based on the operating
characteristics of the generating units.
2. Build an appropriate load model.
3. Combine the generation capacity model with load model to
obtain a risk model.

5. Reviews of papers related to the topic includes;

. Hasan Fayazi Boroujeni et.al. (2012). Calculation of generation system
reliability index: Loss of Load Probability. Life Sci J 2012;9(4):4903-4908]
(ISSN:1097-8135).
. Mostafa Bastaki et. al. (2012). Calculation of generation system reliability
index: Expected Energy Not Served. Article in Life Science Journal
December 2012
. Sheehy, S. et al. (2016) 'Impact of high wind penetration on variability of
unserved energy in power system adequacy.' International Conference on
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Beijing, China,
16-20 October 2016.
. Su Youli and Ken Nagasaka (2010). Monte Carlo Simulation Method Used
in Reliability Evaluation of a Laboratory-based Micro Grid. Proceedings
of the International MultiConference of Engineers and computer scientists
2010 vol II, IMECS 2010, March 17-19, 2010, Hong Kong.
...and others.

6. Conclusion
The generation system reliability is an important aspect of planning for the future
development of the electricity system. The reliability evaluation methodologies for the
generation systems have been developed and matured over many decades. The aim of
this work is to analyze and look into the effect of increased load demand on the system
reliability and decreased load demand on system reliability and also the effect of
increase in failure rates of generating units on the system reliability. The effect of
increase in the load on the system results increase in reliability indices, which in turn
decrease the system reliability. On the other hand, if the load on system decreases the
reliability indices are decreased and results the generating system reliability is
increased. And increase in the failure rates also decreases the generating system
reliability. Hence, we conclude from this basic study that, the generating capacity in
excess of the peak demand, called the capacity reserve, is required to ensure against
excessive load curtailment situation. An extremely high level of reserve can provide a
high level of generating system reliability; On the other hand, a low reserve cheaper
may not provide acceptable system reliability. The failure rates of generating units
should also be low to expect the acceptable system reliability.

Thank You