7Hypothesis Testing

Useful videos/websites:

ideo on writing hypothesis statements:

http://screencast.com/t/ZO8kMt6v

Overview Video on hypothesis testing:

ttp://screencast.com/t/qdz8F0yp

ifference between Type I and II Errors:

ttp://screencast.com/t/fhWKC3ypM8

Section 7.1

Introduction to
Hypothesis
Testing

Definition
A hypothesis is a statement or claim
regarding a characteristic of one or more
populations.

What do you mean by claim?

What do you mean by claim?

Lets measure the
raisins in each box with
a random variable, x.
H0: mu = 2 scoops
H1: mu not = 2 scoops
Which one is the claim?

Null hypothesis H0
contains a statement of equality such as , = or .
Alternative hypothesis Ha or H1 contains a
statement of inequality such as < , or >

For example:
H0: Mr. Smith is innocent of the crime.
H1: Mr. Smith is guilty of the crime. `

Writing Hypotheses
Write the claim about the population.
Then, write its complement.
Note: Either hypothesis, the null or
the alternative, can represent the
claim.

Writing Hypotheses
Write the claim about the population. Then, write its complement.
Either hypothesis, the null or the alternative, can represent the
claim.

A hospital claims its ambulance response time is less

than 10 minutes.

claim
A consumer magazine claims the proportion of cell
phone calls made during evenings and weekends is at
most 60%.

claim

Four Outcomes

Correct

Type II
Error

Type I
Error

Correct

H0: Mr. Smith is innocent of the crime.

H1: Mr. Smith is guilty of the crime.

Hypothesis Testing Errors

Type I error: Reject a true Null
hypothesis
(i.e. innocent person found guilty)
= alpha = probability of Type I
error
Type II error: Do not reject a false
Null hypothesis
(i.e. guilty man goes free)
= beta = probability of Type II

Two-tailed vs. One-tailed

tests
1. two-tailed test:
Equal versus not equal
hypothesis
2. left-tailed test:
Equal versus less than
3. right-tailed test:
Equal versus greater than

Ho: parameter = some

value
H1: parameter
some
value
Ho: parameter = some
value (or greater)
H1: parameter
some
value
Ho: parameter = some
value (or less)
H1: parameter
some
value

Types of Hypothesis Tests

Ha is more probable

Ha is more probable

Ha is more probable

Right-tail test

Left-tail test

Two-tail test

One-tailed or two?
1. A university publicizes that the
proportion of its students who
graduate in 4 years is 82%.
Solution:
H0: p = 0.82
Ha: p 0.82
Two-tailed test

Pvalue
area

Pvalue
area
-z

z
14

One-tailed or two?
2. A water faucet manufacturer
announces that the mean flow rate
of a certain type of faucet is less
than 2.5 gallons per minute.
Solution:
H0: 2.5 gpm
Ha: < 2.5 gpm
Left-tailed
test

P-value area

-z

One-tailed or two?
3. A cereal company advertises that
the mean weight of the contents of
its 20-ounce size cereal boxes is
more than 20 ounces.
Solution:
H0: 20 oz
Ha: > 20 oz
Right-tailed
test

P-value
area
0

Hypothesis Test Strategy

1. Begin by assuming the equality condition in the null hypothesis is
true. This is regardless of whether the claim is represented by the null
hypothesis or by the alternative hypothesis.
2. Collect data from a random sample taken from the
population and calculate the necessary sample statistics.

3. If the sample statistic has a low probability of being drawn

from a population in which the null hypothesis is true, you will
reject H0. (As a consequence, you will support the alternative
hypothesis.)
4. If the probability is not low enough, fail to reject H0.

Two Methods:
P-value Method uses the probability of

obtaining a sample statistics with a value

as extreme (or more) than the one
determined by sample data.
Critical Value Method define a rejection

region using a critical value (similar to the

critical z).

P-values
P-value (or probability value)
The probability, if the null hypothesis is
true, of obtaining a sample statistic with a
value as extreme or more extreme than the
one determined from the sample data.
Depends on the nature of the test.

19

Larson/Farber 4th ed.

P-values
The P-value is the probability of obtaining a sample
statistic with a value as extreme or more extreme than
the one determined by the sample data.

P-value = indicated area

Area in
left tail

Area in
right tail

For a right tail test

For a left tail test

If z is negative,
twice the area
in the left tail

For a two-tail test

If z is positive,
twice the area
in the right tail

Finding P-values: 1-tail Test

The test statistic for a right-tail test is z = 1.56. Find the
P-value.
Area in right tail

z = 1.56

Answer:
The area to the right of z = 1.56 is 1 .9406 = 0.0594.
The P-value is 0.0594.

Finding P-values: 2-tail Test

The test statistic for a two-tail test is z = 2.63. Find the
corresponding P-value.

z = 2.63

Answer:
The area to the left of z = 2.63 is 0.0043.
The P-value is 2(0.0043) = 0.0086.

P-value Method
In Words

In Symbols

1. State the claim mathematically and

verbally. Identify the null and
alternative hypotheses.

State H0 and Ha.

2. Specify the level of significance.

Identify .

3. Determine the standardized test

statistic.

4. Find the area that corresponds

to z.

Use Table 4 in
Appendix B.

x
n

23

P-value Method Part II

In Words

In Symbols

5. Find the P-value.

a. For a left-tailed test, P = (Area in left tail).
b. For a right-tailed test, P = (Area in right tail).
c. For a two-tailed test, P = 2(Area in tail of test
statistic).
Reject H0 if P-value
6. Make a decision to reject or
fail to reject the null hypothesis.
is less than or equal
to . Otherwise,
fail to reject H0.
7. Interpret the decision in the
context of the original claim.
24

1. Identify Hypothesis and

indicate which one is the
claim.

H0 :
Ha :

2. Identify level of
significance

3. Compute the test

statistic. [Depends on what
parameter is being tested.]

x
n

4. Find the area

corresponding to z.

Use preferred method for finding

area in tail.

5. Find the P-value

a. For a one-tailed test, P = (Area in

left tail).
b. For a two-tailed test, P = 2(Area
in tail).

6. Make a Decision

Reject H0 if p-value <= , otherwise

fail to reject.

7. Interpret the decision in

the context of the original

Example: Hypothesis Testing Using P-values

You think that the average

franchise investment
information shown in the graph
is incorrect, so you randomly
select 30 franchises and determine the
necessary investment for each. The sample
mean investment is $135,000 with a
standard deviation of $30,000. Is there
enough evidence to support your claim at
= 0.05? Use the P-value method.
26

1. Identify Hypothesis and

indicate which one is the
claim.
2. Identify level of
significance
3. Compute the test
statistic. [Depends on what
parameter is being tested.]
4. Find the area
corresponding to z.
5. Find the P-value
6. Make a Decision
7. Interpret the decision in
the context of the original
claim.

H0 is claim

= 0.05

x $135,000

x
n

Solution: Hypothesis Testing Using P-values

z

n
135, 000 143, 260

30, 000 30
1.51

P-value

-1.51 0

1. Identify Hypothesis and

indicate which one is the
claim.
2. Identify level of
significance
3. Compute the test
statistic. [Depends on what
parameter is being tested.]
4. Find the area
corresponding to z.
5. Find the P-value

6. Make a Decision
7. Interpret the decision in
the context of the original
claim.

H0 is claim

= 0.05

x 135,000 143, 260

z

1.51
n
30,000 30

Solution: Hypothesis Testing Using P-values

z

n
135, 000 143, 260

30, 000 30
1.51

P-value
0.0655
-1.51 0

P=
2(0.0655)
= 0.1310
z

30

1. Identify Hypothesis and

indicate which one is the
claim.
2. Identify level of
significance
3. Compute the test
statistic. [Depends on what
parameter is being tested.]

H0 is claim

= 0.05

x 135,000 143, 260

z

1.51
n
30,000 30

4. Find the area

corresponding to z.

Area to the left of -1.51 is equal

to 0.0655

5. Find the P-value

P = 2(.0655) because this is a

two-tailed test.
P = .1310

6. Make a Decision

Since .1310 > , we fail to reject

H0.

7. Interpret the decision in

the context of the original
claim.

Since the claim was that the

average (mu) was equal to
$143,260, we say there is not
enough evidence to reject the
claim.

Example: Testing with P-values

Employees in a large accounting firm
claim that the mean salary of the
firms accountants is less than that of
its competitors, which is $45,000. A
random sample of 30 of the firms
accountants has a mean salary of
$43,500 with a standard deviation of
$5200. At = 0.05, test the employees claim.

32

1. H0: Mu = $45,000 (or more)

H1: Mu < $45,000
(left-tailed test)
2. Alpha = .05
3. Xbar = $43,500, Sx = $5200
(Since n >= 30, we can use a
z-statistic)
4. Compute z-statistic (See pg
387)
z = -1.58
5. Find the P-value:
P(z <= -1.58) = .0571
6. Since the P-value of .0571 is
NOT less than or equal to alpha
(.05), we DO NOT REJECT H0
7. There is not sufficient evidence
to support the claim that the

Test Decisions with P-values

The decision about whether there is enough
evidence to reject the null hypothesis can be
made by comparing the P-value to the value of
the level of significance of the test.

If
If

reject the null hypothesis.

fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Interpreting the Decision

Claim

Decision

Claim is H0
Reject H0

Fail to
reject H0

Claim is Ha

There is enough
evidence to
reject the claim.

There is enough
evidence to
support the
claim.

There is not
enough
evidence to
reject the claim.

There is not
enough
evidence to
support the
claim.

Critical Value method

In Words

In Symbols

1. State the claim mathematically

and verbally. Identify the null
and alternative hypotheses.
2. Specify the level of significance.
3. Find the standardized test statistic

x
n
or if n 30 use s.

4. Determine the critical value(s) &

rejection region(s).

Use Table 4 in
Appendix B.

37

Critical Value Z method

Part II
In Words

In Symbols

5. Make a decision to reject or fail

to reject the null hypothesis.

If z is in the rejection
region, reject H0.
Otherwise, fail to
reject H0.

6. Interpret the decision in the

context of the original claim.

Larson/Farber 4th ed.

38

Rejection Regions and Critical Values

Rejection region (or critical region)
The range of values for which the null
hypothesis is not probable.
If a test statistic falls in this region, the null
hypothesis is rejected.
A critical value z0 separates the rejection
region from the nonrejection region.

39

Rejection Regions and Critical Values

Finding Critical Values in a Normal Distribution
1. Specify the level of significance .
2. Decide whether the test is left-, right-, or two-tailed.
3. Find the critical value(s) z0. If the hypothesis test is
a. left-tailed, find the z-score that corresponds to an area
of ,
b. right-tailed, find the z-score that corresponds to an area
of 1 ,
c. two-tailed, find the z-score that corresponds to and
1 .
4. Sketch the standard normal distribution. Draw a vertical
line at each critical value and shade the rejection region(s).
40

Example: Finding Critical

Values
Find the critical value and rejection region for a
two-tailed test with = 0.05.

Solution:
= 0.025

1 = 0.95
= 0.025

0 z0 =
z0
-z0 =z-1.96
0
1.96

The rejection regions are to the left of -z0 = -1.96 and

to the right of z0 = 1.96.
41

Decision Rule Based on Rejection

Region
To use a rejection region to conduct a hypothesis test,
calculate the standardized test statistic, z. If the
standardized test statistic
1. is in the rejection region, then reject H0.
2. is not in the rejection region, then fail to reject H0.
Fail to reject Ho.

Fail to reject H0.

Reject H0.

z < z0

Reject Ho.
z0

Left-Tailed Test

z Fail to reject H

Reject H0

z0

Right-Tailed Test
Reject H0

z0

z > zz0

z < -z0Two-Tailed Test

0

z0

z > zz0

42

Example: Testing with Critical Value

Employees in a large accounting firm
claim that the mean salary of the
firms accountants is less than that of
its competitors, which is $45,000. A
random sample of 30 of the firms
accountants has a mean salary of
$43,500 with a standard deviation of
$5200. At
= 0.05, test the employees claim.
43

Example Critical Z
Test Statistic
x 43,500 45, 000
z

n
5200 30

H0:
<
Ha: $45,000
0.0
= $45,000
5 Region:
Rejection

1.58

0.05

1.58

Zc=-1.645

Decision: Fail to reject H0

At the 5% level of
significance,
there is not sufficient
evidence
to support the employees
claim that the mean salary
44
is

Section 7.2

Hypothesis Testing for the

Mean
Large Samples (n 30)

The z-Test for a Mean

The z-test is a statistical test for a population mean. The z-test
can be used:
(1) if the population is normal and s is known or
(2) when the sample size, n, is at least 30.
The test statistic is the sample mean and the standardized
test statistic is z.

When n 30, use s in place of

The z-Test for a Mean (P-value)

A cereal company claims the mean sodium content in one
serving of its cereal is no more than 230 mg. You work for a
national health service and are asked to test this claim. You find
that a random sample of 52 servings has a mean sodium
content of 232 mg and a standard deviation of 10 mg. At
= 0.05, do you have enough evidence to reject the companys
claim?

1. Write the null and alternative hypothesis.

2. State the level of significance.

= 0.05

3. Determine the sampling distribution.

Since the sample size is at least 30, the sampling distribution is normal.

4. Find the test statistic and standardize it.

n = 52
s = 10
Test statistic

5. Calculate the P-value for the test statistic.

Since this is a right-tail test, the P-value
is the area found to the right
of z = 1.44 in the normal distribution.
From the table P = 1 0.9251
P = 0.0749.

Area in right tail

z = 1.44

6. Make your decision.

Compare the P-value to .
Since 0.0749 > 0.05, fail to reject H0.

7. Interpret your decision.

There is not enough evidence to reject the claim
that the mean sodium content of one serving of its cereal is
no more than 230 mg.

The z-Test for a Mean (Critical Value)

A cereal company claims the mean sodium content in one
serving of its cereal is no more than 230 mg. You work for a
national health service and are asked to test this claim. You
find that a random sample of 52 servings has a mean
sodium content of 232 mg and a standard deviation of 10
mg. At = 0.05, do you have enough evidence to reject
the companys claim?
1. Write the null and alternative hypothesis.
2. State the level of significance.

= 0.05

3. Determine the sampling distribution.

Since the sample size is at least 30, the sampling distribution is normal.

Since Ha contains the > symbol, this is a right-tail test.

Rejection
region
z0
1.645

4. Find the critical value.

5. Find the rejection region.

6. Find the test statistic and standardize it.

n = 52
= 232 s = 10
7. Make your decision.
z = 1.44 does not fall in the rejection region, so fail to reject H0

8. Interpret your
decision.

There is not enough evidence to reject the companys claim that

there is at most 230 mg of sodium in one serving of its cereal.

Using the P-value of a Test to Compare Areas

ef t
l
he 3
t
o 109
t
a 0.
re

z
f
o

= 0.05
z0 = 1.645

Rejection area
0.05
z0

z = 1.23
P = 0.1093

For a P-value decision, compare areas.

If

reject H0.

If

fail to reject H 0.

For a critical value decision, decide if z is in the rejection region

If z is in the rejection region, reject H0. If z is not in the rejection
region, fail to reject H0.

Section 7.3

Hypothesis Testing for the

Mean
Small Samples (n < 30)

The t Sampling Distribution

Find the critical value t0 for a left-tailed test given = 0.01
and n = 18.

d.f. = 18 1 = 17
t0 = 2.567

Area in
left tail

t0

Find the critical values t0 and t0 for a two-tailed test given

= 0.05 and n = 11.

t0 = 2.228 and t0 = 2.228

d.f. = 11 1 = 10
t0

t0

Testing

Small Sample

A university says the mean number of classroom hours per

week for full-time faculty is 11.0. A random sample of the
number of classroom hours for full-time faculty for one week is
listed below. You work for a student organization and are asked
to test this claim. At = 0.01, do you have enough evidence
to reject the universitys claim?
11.8 8.6 12.6 7.9 6.4 10.4 13.6 9.1
1. Write the null and alternative hypothesis

2. State the level of significance

= 0.01

3. Determine the sampling distribution

Since the sample size is 8, the sampling distribution

is a t-distribution with 8 1 = 7 d.f.

Since Ha contains the symbol, this is a two-tail test.

4. Find the critical values.
5. Find the rejection region.
t0
3.499

t0
3.499

6. Find the test statistic and standardize it

n=8

= 10.050 s = 2.485

7. Make your decision.

t = 1.08 does not fall in the rejection region, so fail to reject H 0 at
8. Interpret your decision.
There is not enough evidence to reject the universitys claim that
faculty spend a mean of 11 classroom hours.

= 0.01

Section 7.4

Hypothesis Testing for

Proportions

Test for Proportions

p is the population proportion of successes. The
test statistic is
.
(the proportion of sample successes)
If

and

the sampling distribution for

The standardized test statistic is:

is normal.

Test for Proportions - Example

A communications industry spokesperson claims that
over 40% of Americans either own a cellular phone
or have a family member who does. In a random
survey of 1036 Americans, 456 said they or a family
member owned a cellular phone. Test the
spokespersons claim at = 0.05. What can you
conclude?
1. Write the null and alternative hypothesis.

2. State the level of significance.

= 0.05

3. Determine the sampling distribution.

1036(.40) > 5 and 1036(.60) > 5. The sampling distribution is
normal.
Rejection
region

4. Find the critical value.

5. Find the rejection region.

1.645
6. Find the test statistic and standardize it.

n = 1036

x = 456

7. Make your decision.

z = 2.63 falls in the rejection region, so reject H0
8. Interpret your decision.
There is enough evidence to support the claim that over 40% of
Americans own a cell phone or have a family member who does.

The End

1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

A company claims the mean lifetime of its AA
batteries is more than 16 hours.
A. H0: > 16 Ha: 16
B. H0: < 16 Ha: 16
C. H0: 16 Ha: > 16
D. H0: 16 Ha: < 16

Copyright 2007 Pearson Education,

Inc. Publishing as Pearson AddisonWesley

Slide 7- 62

2. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

A student claims the mean cost of a
textbook is at least $125.
A. H0: > 125 Ha: 125
B. H0: < 125 Ha: 125
C. H0: 125 Ha: > 125
D. H0: 125 Ha: < 125

Copyright 2007 Pearson Education,

Inc. Publishing as Pearson AddisonWesley

Slide 7- 63

3. You are testing the claim that the mean cost

of a new car is more than $25,200. How should
you interpret a decision that rejects the null
hypothesis?
A. There is enough evidence to reject the claim.
B. There is enough evidence to support the
claim.
C. There is not enough evidence to reject the
claim.
D. There is not enough evidence to support the
claim.
Copyright 2007 Pearson Education,
Inc. Publishing as Pearson AddisonWesley

Slide 7- 64

True or false:
Given H0: = 40 Ha: 40 and P = 0.0436.
You would reject the null hypothesis at the
0.05 level of significance.
A. True
B. False

Copyright 2007 Pearson Education,

Inc. Publishing as Pearson AddisonWesley

Slide 7- 65

Answers
Answers:
1. (C)
2. (D)
3. (B)
4. (A)