Piyush Jain

Director Engineering
HB Software Solution India Pvt Ltd
For the discussion on Intelligent Transportation
Systems
 Data Analytics and
Money
( )
Kitna Deti hai ( )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCkSenYtEMQ
Bus Location Detection Check

Objective - An attempt to show that the bus

location can be identified by making use of LAC
and Cell ID using Bayesian approach.

Help detect fraud/erroneous ticketing for Road

Transport with some margin of error.
Components
LAC Location Area Code is a 16 bit number
thereby allowing 65536 location areas within one
GSM PLMN.
GSM Cell-id unique number used to identify
each BTS or sector of a BTS within a LAC if not
within a GSM network.
Other components
Bus route no
ETM Id
Farestage id
Bus stop name
 FARE_STAGE

ROUTE _CHANGE_TI

NAME ETM_SR_NO ME BUS_STOP_NAME BS1 BS2 BS3 BS4

Roue 1 ETM 1 20:41:38 Punjabi Bagh (T) 77,AD19,49 1B8,DD57,44 77,0,41 77,AD17,32

Roue 1 ETM 1 17:48:29 Kamruddin Nagar Crossing A4,B75A,56 A4,B759,37 A4,D162,39 A4,B758,40

Roue 1 ETM 1 12:04:14 Nangloi Depot/JwalaPuri 108,B8B7,59 108,B8B6,45 108,2D17,46 108,0,43

Roue 1 ETM 1 19:53:45 Wazirpur Depot 1B8,AE84,63 1B8,0,49 77,143D,48 1B8,DD56,41

Roue 1 ETM 1 12:04:14 Nangloi Depot/JwalaPuri 108,B8B7,63 108,B8B6,54 108,2D17,44 108,B994,39

Roue 1 ETM 1 10:06:13 NANGLOI JJ COLONY 108,B8B8,51 108,A97B,45 108,A97A,44 108,B8B6,35

Roue 1 ETM 1 10:18:44 Mundka Village Metro Station A4,C5BD,63 A4,B99D,56 A4,0,38 A4,C5BF,43

Roue 1 ETM 1 16:19:44 Wazirpur Depot 1B8,AE84,63 1B8,0,49 77,143D,48 1B8,DD56,41

Methodology
As per the objective, to detect fraud ticketing
Of all the trips, we select the trips
not having the GPS data from the bus.
Where collected revenue are below average.
are conducted at the start/end of the day.
Collect the data on the basis of the LAC and cellid
(Key combination) at a FS (fare stage between bus
stops).
Apply Bayes theorem on the basis of all the
received data for selected trip analysis.
Methodology

We will estimate P(FS), P(key combination) from the data and using this
information we can get the improved estimates of probability.

Posterior
Prior Probability
New Application of
Probability P (a FS
Information Bayes
P (a fare | Key)
(LAC, Cell ID) Theorem
stage)
Methodology

These two information have been concatenated to get a unique
combination key i.e. 10820C7
= 0.5444%
= 0.5329%
Using Bayes Theorem

So, after a little algebra we get the estimate

= 97.89%
Methodology

Question

How the keys are distributed for a
particular fare stages?

= 0.5329%

= 5.121%
Methodology
Possibility of 10820C7 @FS Peeragarhi Chowk = 5.12%.
But the maximum likelihood of keys occurring At
Peeragarhi Chowk are 10820C8, 10820C9 with 24.12%,
23.90% respectively.
Probability of Peeragarhi Chowk given key 10820C7 was
97.89% but the occurrences of this key 10820C7 given at
fare stage say Peeragarhi chowk is much lower in
comparison with other keys like 10820C8/10820C9
meaning occurrence rate is highest for 10820C8 & 10820C9
keys at Fare stage Peeragarhi Chowk.
Conclusion
ETM trip data though does not contain geocodes,

Helps detects the possibility of ticketing fraud with the

help of farestages and LAC, Cellid combination key
data.

The manual investigation has to kick in for conformance

of the fraud.
Viability of running a bus service
( )
Objective Understand the subsidy/funding requirement
for the premium city bus service. To encourage more
people to use the bus for long distance travel.

Decision based on load factor, mileage covered, revenue

accrued.
Parameters
Random Variables &
Parameters Unit Tentative values

Cost of Premium Bus Per Bus INR 75 lakhs to 1 Crore

Life of a Bus Years 10 years
No. of seats Number 35

Scheduled Vehicle Utilization Km Per day 140, 160, 170 (Min, Avg, Max)

Actual Vehicle Utilization Km Per day

Fare for Route Rs. Per Km INR 2 per km, per passenger
Load Factor % 0.7 to 1.0
Cost of Capital % (Rate of Interest) 13%
Operating Cost Rs. Per Km INR 51 to 54 per Km
Salvage Value Per Bus 10% of initial value

EMI for Capital (Bus) Rs. Per Km INR 24

Distribution algorithms used
Uniform distribution for the load factor and operative cost factors.

Triangular distribution for the bus utilization factor.

Uniform Distribution Every value from the minimum to the

maximum is equally likely i.e. all values have an equal chance of
occurring. Examples of variables that could be uniformly
distributed include manufacturing costs or future sales revenues for
a new product.

Triangular Distribution has minimum (a), most likely (c) and

maximum (b) values and the values around the most likely are more
likely to occur.
Data Modelling
Monte Carlo simulation does calculations on the
randomly generate values for the unknown elements (i.e.
variables) in the model through random sampling.

Variable values are sampled using random numbers from

the input probability distributions. Each set of samples is
called a replications/iteration/trial/run, and the resulting
outcome from that sample is recorded.
Objectives to be achieved

What is the probability that operational viability gap at a given fare Rs. 2 /
Km will result in loss?

What is the probability that revenue will be greater than average value?

What is the probability that Km efficiency per day will be greater than 90%?

What is the expected operational viability gap?

What should be the Technical or Threshold fare (Break Even Point) set up to
meet the operational expenditure, or opts to run with no profit no loss?

What will be the change in statistics if the cost of bus changes to Rs 90
Lakhs/1 Crore from Rs. 75 lacs (sensitivity analysis)?
Simulation

Microsoft Excel
Macro-Enabled Worksheet
Conclusion
Summary Per Km Per Bus Per day Per Bus
Revenue per Km 58.02 9,087.04
Operational Expenditure per Km 52.53 8,226.49
Capital Expenditure per Km 24.18 3,786.77
Total Expenditure per Km 76.72 12,013.26
Gap per Km (Operational) 5.52 864.01
Gap per Km (Total ) (18.67) (2,922.76)
Actual Vehicle Utilization
(Km/day/Bus) 156.59 156.59
Km Efficiency (Actual Km /Scheduled
Km) 92.1% 92.1%

Threshold Fare (Break Even Point) for Operational

expenditure at 51.00 1.77

For Operational expenditure at 54.00 1.87

Uniformly b/w 51.00 & 54.00 1.81

Threshold fare (Break Even Point) at Total
Expenditure ( Opex + Capex ) 2.63
Conclusion
Result based on 100000 iterations/runs
Operational Viability Gap per day per bus 859.65
Total Viability Gap Including Capital Expenditure per day per bus (2,927.17)
Standard Deviation Operational Viability Gap
per day per bus 2.71
Standard Deviation Total Viability Gap per day
per bus 2.81
99 % Confidence Interval for Operational Upper limit 866.65
Expenditure Lower limit 852.56
99 % Confidence Interval for Total Expenditure Upper limit (2920.12)
(Opex + Capex) Lower limit (2934.21)

Rs. 2934 subsidy per bus per day would be required to

fill the viability gap, when the fare taken is Rs.2/- per
km per passenger. This has to be borne by the Local
government under gross cost model.
Thanks for your attention.
( )
Courtesy
Dr. Himanshu Bhatnagar (CEO, HBSS)
Mr. Shalabh Bhatnagar (CTO, HBSS)