Space Weather Effects on GPS

Thomas J. Bogdan, Director

Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA
325 Broadway, DSRC Room 2C109
Boulder, CO 80305, USA
 For Official Use Only

How GPS works

Triangulation from known satellite positions

Distance calculated based on radio signal travel time
Must correct for delays due to propagation through the
atmosphere
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GPS Error Sources

Typical Error in Meters Standard GPS Differential GPS

(per satellites)

Satellite Clocks 1.5 0

Orbit Errors 2.5 0
Ionosphere 5.0 0.4
Troposphere 0.5 0.2
Receiver Noise 0.3 0.3
Multipath 0.6 0.6

The ionosphere is the largest source of error for Standard GPS and second largest for
Differential GPS

http://www.trimble.com/gps/howgps-error2.shtml#3 3
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Ionosphere Effects on GPS

The ionosphere is defined as the region of the upper

atmosphere where radio signal propagation is affected
by charged particles.
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Scintillation Effects
SATCOM MESSAGE ERRORS
15 SATCOM Message
064. THE QUICK BROWN FOX JUMPS OVER THE LAZY DOGS BACK 01234567<9"TI
12 Ascension Island ?65.( VHE UUicK vROWN$GOX JUMPS OVERTHE!McZY(f~dz.9g?_f_}_ jsSL 33
6 April 1997 s %E QUICK$BROWN(FOX JUMS OVER THE0LZY ?OGS CK 0123456789
?67. (THE QUKcK BROWN GOY"JUMPS TIUM
_VZ .O Ox'??.9 :cl???0SsQJ.:.$~
9 $U S?IcK0 SN ? MUM!_VGS* THE LAZY DOGS BACK 01=3456789 TIMES
069. THE QUICK BROWN FOX JUMPS OVER THE LAZY DOGS BACK 0123456789 TIM
Relative Signal Strength (dB)

Average Signal Level

0

-3

-7
Receiver Fade Margin

-9

-12
00:21:00 00:22:00 00:23:00
Universal Time (hh:mm:ss)
S. Basu, private communication
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Ionosphere Challenges

October 29th, 2003

walls of TEC challenge
provision of integrity with
differential GPS

Courtesy: Tom Dehel, FAA

TEC walls:
130 TEC units over 50 km wall
SED?
20 m of GPS delay;
walls move 100 to 500 m/s

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Anomaly crests

1 TECU = 1016 electrons m-2

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Mannucci et al., 2005
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Space Weather Effects on WAAS

July 1, 2003 March 1, 2005

% CONUS at 95%
Availability

(Nov 8, 2004)
Magnetic Storm
Index

15 hour loss on 10/29; 11.3 hour loss on 10/30, shorter losses on 11/20/20038
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Ionosphere Corrections

Need to model the ionosphere to compute corrections

Empirical climatological models: Klobuchar Coefficients

Physics based numerical models: CTIPe, TIE-GCM
Data assimilation schemes: WAAS, US-TEC, GAIM

Models can provide specification and forecast

The ionosphere is highly variable in space and time

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US-TEC Product
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ustec
Current NOAA capability for characterizing the total number of free electrons (TEC) in the
ionosphere, with parallel input data streams for reliability
Since 2004, a product characterizing the ionospheric TEC over the continental US (CONUS) has
been running in real-time at NOAAs Space Environment Center (SEC)
The ionospheric data assimilation model uses a Kalman filter and ingests ground-based GPS data to
produce 2-D maps of total electron content over the CONUS
Product evolved from a collaboration between SEC and NOAAs National Geodetic Survey (NGS),
National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), and Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL)

Primary Product:
Real-time ionospheric maps of QuickTime and a
TIFF (PackBits) decompressor
total electron content every 15 are needed to see this picture.

minutes. Currently uses about

100 real-time GPS stations from
the CORS network 10
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Slant-Path TEC Maps

A B
Sat. 1 A B
Sat. 14
C
A B
C
A B
C
Sat. 5 Sat. 29

.etc
C

Applications:
Ionospheric correction for single frequency GPS; NDGPS positioning;
dual-frequency integer ambiguity resolution for rapid centimeter accuracy
positioning (OPUS). (OPUS)OPUS) 11
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US-TEC Validation Summary

DifferentialTEC:
Slant=2.4TECunits
Vertical=1.7TECunits

AbsoluteFORTEraytracing:
Slant=2.7TECunits
Vertical=1.9TECunits

Estimated US-TEC slant path total electron content

uncertainty < 3 TEC units (equivalent to about 45 cm of
signal delay at L1 frequencies)
Estimate US-TEC vertical total electron content
uncertainty < 2 TEC units (equivalent to about 30 cm of
signal delay at L1 frequencies)
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SWPC Ionosphere Goals

Produce global real-time specification and forecast

Web display of GAIM output from AFWA
Assimilation schemes using numerical models: CTIPe, IDEA
Improve US-TEC
CONUS: Specification with 10 minute latency
US-TEC slant path total electron content uncertainty < 2 TECU
US-TEC vertical electron content uncertainty < 1 TECU

CONUS: Provide Forecast

1 hour forecast as good as specification
3 hour forecast: uncertainty < 3 TEC units
6-12 hour forecasts 13
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Conclusions

Ionosphere Services is a fast growing area in Space

Weather

SWPC is committed to offer improved products and tools

SWPC is ready to collaborate on:

Data
Models and model results
Research
Services

Solar Maximum is on the way (2012?)

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