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flood frequency analysis

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You are on page 1of 35

12.6

Goal: to determine design discharges

Flood economic studies require flood discharge

estimates for a range of return periods

2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500 years

Flood mapping studies use a smaller number of

return periods

10, 50, 100, 500 years

100 year flood is that discharge which is equaled

or exceeded, on average, once per 100 years.

Base Map for

Sanderson, Texas

Prepared by

Laura Hurd and

David Maidment

3/17/2010

CRWR

Design discharges for flood mapping needed here

08376300

USGS Annual Maximum Flood Data

http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/peak

1965 flood estimate

With dams

Hydrologic extremes

Extreme events

Floods

Droughts

Magnitude of extreme events is related to their

frequency of occurrence

1

Magnitude

Frequency of occurence

The objective of frequency analysis is to relate the

magnitude of events to their frequency of

occurrence through probability distribution

It is assumed the events (data) are independent and

come from identical distribution

7

Return Period

Random variable: X

Threshold level: xT

Recurrence interval: Time between ocurrences of X x

T

Return Period: E ( )

Average recurrence interval between events equaling or

exceeding a threshold

If p is the probability of occurrence of an extreme

event, then E ( ) T 1

p

or 1

P ( X xT )

T

8

More on return period

If p is probability of success, then (1-p) is the

probability of failure

Find probability that (X xT) at least once in N years.

p P( X xT )

P( X xT ) (1 p )

P( X xT at least once in N years) 1 P( X xT all N years)

N

1

P( X xT at least once in N years) 1 (1 p ) N 1 1

T

9

Frequency Factors

Previous example only works if distribution is

invertible, many are not.

Once a distribution has been selected and its

parameters estimated, then how do we use it?

Chow proposed using: xT x KT s

xT Estimated event magnitude fX(x)

KT s

T Return period P ( X xT )

1

T

x Sample mean

s Sample standard deviation xT x

10

Return period example

Dataset annual maximum discharge for 106

years on Colorado River near Austin

xT = 200,000 cfs

600

500

No. of occurrences = 3

Annual Max Flow (10 3 cfs)

400

2 recurrence intervals

in 106 years

300

T = 106/2 = 53 years

200

100

0

If xT = 100, 000 cfs

1905 1908 1918 1927 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998

7 recurrence intervals

Year

P( X 100,000 cfs at least once in the next 5 years) = 1- (1-1/15.2)5 = 0.29

11

Data series

600

500

Annual Max Flow (10 3 cfs)

400

300

200

100

0

1905 1908 1918 1927 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998

Year

The annual maximum flow for 1935 is 481 cfs. The annual maximum data series

probably excluded some flows that are greater than 200 cfs and less than 481 cfs

Will the T change if we consider monthly maximum

12 series or weekly maximum series?

Hydrologic data series

All the data available

Partial duration series

Magnitude greater than base value

Annual exceedance series

Partial duration series with # of

values = # years

Extreme value series

Includes largest or smallest values in

equal intervals

Annual series: interval = 1 year

Annual maximum series: largest

values

Annual minimum series : smallest

values

13

Probability distributions

Normal family

Normal, lognormal, lognormal-III

Generalized extreme value family

EV1 (Gumbel), GEV, and EVIII (Weibull)

Exponential/Pearson type family

Exponential, Pearson type III, Log-Pearson type

III

14

Normal distribution

Central limit theorem if X is the sum of n

independent and identically distributed random variables

with finite variance, then with increasing n the distribution of

X becomes normal regardless of the distribution of random

variables

pdf for normal distribution

2

1 x

1

2

f X ( x) e

2

is the mean and is the standard

deviation

annual average pollutant loadings follow normal distribution

15

Standard Normal distribution

A standard normal distribution is a normal

distribution with mean () = 0 and standard

deviation () = 1

Normal distribution is transformed to

standard normal distribution by using the

following formula:

X

z

z is called the standard normal variable

16

Lognormal distribution

If the pdf of X is skewed, its not

normally distributed

If the pdf of Y = log (X) is

normally distributed, then X is

said to be lognormally

distributed.

1 ( y y )2

f ( x) exp x 0, and y log x

x 2 2 y

2

lognormal distribution.

17

Extreme value (EV) distributions

Extreme values maximum or minimum

values of sets of data

Annual maximum discharge, annual minimum

discharge

When the number of selected extreme values

is large, the distribution converges to one of

the three forms of EV distributions called Type

I, II and III

18

EV type I distribution

If M1, M2, Mn be a set of daily rainfall or streamflow,

and let X = max(Mi) be the maximum for the year. If

Mi are independent and identically distributed, then

for large n, X has an extreme value type I or Gumbel

distribution.

1 x u x u

f ( x) exp exp

6sx

u x 0.5772

19

EV type III distribution

If Wi are the minimum streamflows

in different days of the year, let X =

min(Wi) be the smallest. X can be

described by the EV type III or

Weibull distribution.

k x

k 1

x k

f ( x) exp x 0; , k 0

follows EV3 distribution.

20

Exponential distribution

Poisson process a stochastic

process in which the number of

events occurring in two disjoint

subintervals are independent

random variables.

In hydrology, the interarrival time

(time between stochastic hydrologic

events) is described by exponential

distribution

x 1

f ( x ) e x 0;

x

exponential distribution.

21

Gamma Distribution

The time taken for a number of

events (b) in a Poisson process is

described by the gamma distribution

Gamma distribution a distribution

of sum of b independent and

identical exponentially distributed

random variables.

b x b 1e x

f ( x) x 0; gamma function

( b )

Skewed distributions (eg. hydraulic

conductivity) can be represented using

gamma without log transformation.

22

Pearson Type III

Named after the statistician Pearson, it is also

called three-parameter gamma distribution. A

lower bound is introduced through the third

parameter (e)

b ( x e ) b 1 e ( x e )

f ( x) x e ; gamma function

( b )

describing the pdf of annual maximum flows.

23

Log-Pearson Type III

If log X follows a Person Type III distribution,

then X is said to have a log-Pearson Type III

distribution

b ( y e ) b 1 e ( y e )

f ( x) y log x e

( b )

24

Frequency analysis for extreme events

Q. Find a flow (or any other event) that has a return period of T years

x u x u

f ( x)

1

exp exp x u EV1 pdf and cdf

F ( x) exp exp

6sx

u x 0.5772

x u

Define a reduced variable y y

F ( x) exp exp( y )

y ln lnF ( x) ln ln(1 p) where p P(x xT )

1

yT ln ln1

T

If you know T, you can find yT, and once yT is know, xT can be computed by

xT u yT 25

Example 12.2.1

Given annual maxima for 10-minute storms

Find 5- & 50-year return period 10-minute

storms

x 0.649 in

s 0.177 in

6s 6 * 0.177 u x 0.5772 0.649 0.5772 * 0.138 0.569

0.138

T 5

y5 ln ln ln ln 1.5

T 1 5 1

x5 u y5 0.569 0.138 *1.5 0.78 in

x50 1.11in

26

Normal Distribution

2

1 x

Normal distribution 1

2

f X ( x) e

2

xT x

KT zT

s

So the frequency factor for the Normal

Distribution is the standard normal variate

xT x KT s x zT s

1

T 50; p 0.02; K 50 z50 2.054 Look in Table 11.2.1 or use NORMSINV (.) in

EXCEL or see page 390 in the text book

50

27

EV-I (Gumbel) Distribution

x u T

F ( x) exp exp

6s

u x 0.5772 yT ln ln

T 1

xT u yT

6 6 T

x 0.5772 s s ln ln

T 1

6 T

x 0.5772 ln ln s

T 1

xT x KT s

6 T

KT 0.5772 ln ln

T 1

28

Example 12.3.2

storm using frequency factor

6 T

KT 0.5772 ln ln

T 1

6 5

KT 0 .5772 ln ln 0.719

5 1

xT x KT s

0.649 0.719 0.177

0.78 in

29

Probability plots

Probability plot is a graphical tool to assess

whether or not the data fits a particular

distribution.

The data are fitted against a theoretical

distribution in such as way that the points should

form approximately a straight line (distribution

function is linearized)

Departures from a straight line indicate

departure from the theoretical distribution

30

Normal probability plot

Steps

1. Rank the data from largest (m = 1) to smallest (m = n)

2. Assign plotting position to the data

1. Plotting position an estimate of exccedance probability

2. Use p = (m-3/8)/(n + 0.15)

3. Find the standard normal variable z corresponding to the

plotting position (use -NORMSINV (.) in Excel)

4. Plot the data against z

If the data falls on a straight line, the data comes from

a normal distributionI

31

Normal Probability Plot

600

500

Data

Q (1000 cfs)

400 Normal

300

200

100

0

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Standard normal variable (z)

The pink line you see on the plot is xT for T = 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 500 derived

using the frequency factor technique for normal distribution.

32

EV1 probability plot

Steps

1. Sort the data from largest to smallest

2. Assign plotting position using Gringorten

formula pi = (m 0.44)/(n + 0.12)

3. Calculate reduced variate yi = -ln(-ln(1-pi))

4. Plot sorted data against yi

If the data falls on a straight line, the data

comes from an EV1 distribution

33

EV1 probability plot

600

500

Data

400 EV1

Q (1000 cfs)

300

200

100

0

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

EV1 reduced variate

The pink line you see on the plot is xT for T = 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 500 derived

using the frequency factor technique for EV1 distribution.

34

HW 10 will be posted online sometime this

week. The due date is April 25

Next class Exam 2

Questions??

35

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