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Technical Analysis - Commodity, Brazil, Euro And
Dollar Index
Adam Smith Associates Blog | July 15, 2017
Soy bean prices formed an expanding triangle near the 61.8% mark.
Last time I wrote that a bounce can occur because of the triangle but
as shown why not a bottom? Possible Wave Y is over. Either another X
wave up retracing the Y or the start of a major impulse. The trend
should be up as long as we are above 2650. Breakout of the triangle
above 3035 to go to 3286.
Copper Closed the week down. Now 365 is the next support. Halting
near retracements it is still possible that copper is within a larger
corrective structure. The recent rally is not certainly impulsive.
So if 365 breaks wee can see it go back to test the 353 low [below
2.62$ to 2.48$].
Base metals are showing a near term correction after Lead, Aluminium
and Zinc look like completing near term 5 wave rallies. The indication
therefore is of a positive trend ahead but after a pause correction or
retracement. The size of a pullback is hard to say.
For Zinc below the 20dma at 173 is the immediate support. 167 is
the 61.8% retracement mark.
Reccent data from CFTC shows that bulls that were record long at the
highs on Silver have given back almost all of their long positions.
With sentiment at just 9% bullish we are at the fag end of the decline
in gold and silver. The chart shows the falling channel for the price, that
I published a while back. At yesterdays low we came close to the line
and we may test it one last time in wave z down. The channel is at
35000. The RSI is also entering the oversold sub-30 range.
Corn Prices surged with the rest of the Agro prices on the
international markets. Corn hit a new high as it starts a larger degree
3rd wave up. Wave 3 up points to 460 just based on 3=1. That is a
normal non extended wave over 12 months.
Wave 5 ended in FEB. We are now in the third leg, wave Y, which is a
3 wave decline marked as A-B-C and wave B mostly completed at the
upper Bollinger band in a small 5 wave advance [wave c of B], so wave
C down can go to 56000-55800 if C=A
The Euro This morning on the hourly chart shows a clear 5 wave decline
in wave A, and a bounce back which is mostly B. 38.2% at 1.138 or
61.8% at 1.14 may be achieved in wave B after which wave C can
drop to 1.125 or as far as 1.11. The 5 wave decline should mean that
the 5 wave rise from the April low is complete and being corrected.
The first pull back in a larger up trend.
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