Exposure Analysis and

Influence Diagram
 Climate Change
Influence Diagram
Objectives:
1. To further translate observed
impacts into climate projections and
probable impacts
2. To map out how the changing
climate will interact with other
hazards to affect exposed sectors
CC Drivers/ Primary Impact Secondary Impact Tertiary Impact
Hazards

Streets submerged Disruption in mobility

in water of people and goods
Low productivity

FLOODING

Housing Units Structural stress Increased demand

Submerged in In housing in maintenance and
water units Repair
investment

Note: The impacts are not limited to linear analysis. The tertiary impact for ex., may
also indirectly impact the secondary or primary impact. Arrows can be connected to
any other impact depending on hoe the sector have experienced it or relate it
Urban Flooding, Cagayan de Oro City, Iligan City, Nov. 2007
2009

Salvador, Lanao del Norte Alubijid, Misamis Oriental

February 2008 January 2009
CC Drivers/ Primary Impact Secondary Impact Tertiary Impact
Hazards

Damage to public Delivery of basic

Increase morbidity
Bldgs. & other infra/ services cases
lifelines affected

RIL

Non-availability
of transport Increase in travel
services time and fare
Road
inaccessibility
Displacement of Shortage of food
residents Supply and
production

Note: The impacts are not limited to linear analysis. The tertiary impact for ex., may
also indirectly impact the secondary or primary impact. Arrows can be connected to
any other impact depending on hoe the sector have experienced it or relate it
Influence Diagram
Bio-Physical Primary Impact Secondary Impact Tertiary Impact
Landslide Damage to Barangay Reduce Economic & Low Production
(RIL) Halls, Covered Courts, Social Activities
Health Centers & Day
Care Centers

Roads inaccessability Displacement of Storage of Food

Residents production & supply
Non availability of Increased of fare
transport services & travel time

Damage to power lines & Inefficient supply of No electric power on

electric equipment power grid
Damage to School No other alternative Increased in
Buildings Site demand to repair
maintenance
Sea Level Rise Damage to Dikes & Sea Displacement of Forced relocation of
Walls families at coastal residents
brgys
Housing Units along Structural stress to Disrupted economic
coastal brgys submerge infra facilities & social activities
 DEBRIS FLOW viscous to fluid-like motion of
debris.
Dingalan, Aurora Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte

Real, Quezon 2 Maco, Compostela Valley

CC Drivers/ Primary Impact Secondary Impact Tertiary Impact
Hazards

Water level in Decreased income

Decreased H2O
Irrigation facilities of Farmers
Level in rivers decreased

Drought

Decreased in Additional financial

Increased price
production of crops/ Burden to
Livestock/marine of basic
Affected
commodities
families

What degree of change

Triggers significant impact?
WHERE?
HOW MANY/MUCH? Are there specific
Thresholds of concern?
 Remember this!

Adaptation = to manage the un-avoidable

Mitigation = to avoid the un-manageable

closely interconnected
Indispensable for poverty alleviation agenda
Key factors to consider to achieve sustainable
development
 Activity
1. Identify past, & current climate, climate
extreme events and other disaster hazards
that you & your community have experienced
in the last 30 years
2. Opposite each hazard, write the observed
primary & secondary impacts that you have
experienced
3. Create a Climate Change Influence Diagram
by linking each hazard with related impact
(primary & secondary). One impact may also
be linked with one or more related impact
Thank you..