Yellow Fever

in Senegal

Hannah
Isaac
Outline

Disease Background
Model
Comparison with Data
Model Predictions
Conclusions and Further Work
Disease Background
First account of http://www.tel.hr/
public-
sickness diagnosed as health/bolesti/krp
eljni2.htm
YF occurred in 1648

Causative agent: genus

Flavivirus

Vector: Aedes aegypti

(mosquito)
http://www.gemsvt.org/middle/grade
Nonhuman primates 7/science/resources.htm

maintain disease
http://www.ahajokes.com/crt05
0.html
Cycles of YF Transmission

Jungle Village City

MOSQUITO MOSQUITO MOSQUITO

HUMAN,
MONKEY HUMAN HUMAN
MONKEY

MOSQUITO MOSQUITO MOSQUITO

www.who.int
Model Simplifications
Endemic presence of disease
in the jungle

Consider urban outbreak only

Disease brought to city

though movement of infected
humans (initial condition)
http://www.ac-
grenoble.fr/irem/sergesimplificatio
n.htm
 The SEVIR Model

Humans can be in one of five categories at a time

Susceptible Exposed* Infective** Recovered***

Vaccinated

*Virus incubating
**Contagious
***Includes: survivors, victims, Immune
Assumptions
100% transmission

Linear vaccination term, 1 week lag

Pesticides affect the birth rate continuously

No mosquito larval stage

Homogeneous mixing of people

 System of Equations:
Humans
d TM( t ) SH( t )
SH( t ) v SH( t )
dt NH

Exposed Vaccinated
d TM( t ) VH( t )
VH( t )v SH( t )ve VH( t )
dt NH
Vaccinated Immune Exposed

d TM( t ) ( SH( t )VH( t ) )

EH( t ) EH( t )
dt NH

Exposed Infective
 System of Equations:
Humans
d
TH( t ) EH( t )
dt
Infective

d
RH( t )r TH( t )
dt
Recovered

d The Mathemagician
DDH( t ) TH( t )
dt
http://www.mathsci.appstate.edu
Dead /u/math/sjg/simpsonsmath/index
.html
System of Equations:
Mosquitoes
d TH( t ) SM( t )
SM( t ) ( ) SM( t )
dt NH

Exposed Birth & Death

d TH( t ) SM( t )
EM( t )( ) EM( t ) ( EM( t )TM( t ) )
dt NH
Death & Infective Exposed Birth

d
TM( t ) TM( t ) EM( t )
dt
Death Infective
Parameters
Humans:
Population: NH = 800 000

Incubation rate: = 1/12

(people/day)

Death rate: = 0.08/14

(people/day)

Recovery rate: r = 0.92/14

(people/day) http://www.aclassmedicine
.org/diet.html
Parameters Contd
Mosquitoes:
Number of Mosquitoes: NM = 100 000 000

Biting rate: = 1/10 (bites/daymosquito)

Birth rate*: = 0.11 (mosquitoes/day)

Death rate: = 0.25 (mosquitoes/day)

Incubation rate: = 1/12 (mosquitoes/day)

*Low due to insecticide use

Model vs. Data for 2002 Outbreak

Cumulative Cases

Days
 The Epidemic Curve

Clear peak at ~20

days, no new
Infections after
New Cases

100 days

Days
Predictive Power

Parameters can be changed to make

useful predictions:

Changing control parameters

Varying disease introduction
 Without Pesticide

Controlled
epidemic
Cumulative Cases

(vaccine)
with a higher
number of
total cases
(~400)

Days
 Without Vaccine

Controlled
epidemic
Cumulative Cases

(pesticide)
with a higher
number of
total cases
(~450)

Days
No Controls (pesticide or vaccine)
Cumulative Cases

Disease is
rampant!

Days
 Introduction of Disease Through
Pre-Contagious Humans
Cumulative Cases

Vaccine takes
effect before
contagious
period begins

Days
Conclusions

Single urban compartment well-

described by model

Parameter adjustment has realistic

effects

Future models should include

progression through jungle and village
Thanks to...

Gary, Joanna,
Alex, and all the
other instructors
and math
campers

Math Camp