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17 Reliability
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Outline
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Learning Objectives
1. Describe how to improve system reliability
2. Determine system reliability
3. Determine mean time between failure
(MTBF)
4. Distinguish between preventive and
breakdown maintenance
5. Describe how to improve maintenance
6. Compare preventive and breakdown
maintenance costs
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Orlando Utilities
Commission
Maintenance of power generating plants
Every year each plant is taken off-line for 1-3
weeks maintenance
Every three years each plant is taken off-line
for 6-8 weeks for complete overhaul and
turbine inspection
Each overhaul has 1,800 tasks and requires
72,000 labor hours
OUC performs over 12,000 maintenance tasks
each year
Every day a plant is down costs OUC $110,000
Unexpected outages cost between $350,000
and $600,000 per day 4
Strategic Importance of
Maintenance and Reliability
Failure has far reaching effects on a firms
Operation
Reputation
Profitability
Dissatisfied customers
Idle employees
Profits becoming losses
Reduced value of investment in plant and
equipment
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Maintenance and Reliability
Reliability is the probability that a machine will
function properly for a specified time
Tactics to improve Reliability
Improving individual components
Providing redundancy
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Reliability
Improving individual components
Rs = R1 x R2 x R3 x x Rn
and so on
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Overall System Reliability
Reliability of the system (percent) 100
80
60
40
20
0 | | | | | | | | |
100 99 98 97 96
Average reliability of each component (percent)
Figure 17.2
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Reliability Example
R1 R2 R3
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Product Failure Rate (FR)
Basic unit of measure for reliability
Number of failures
FR(%) = x 100%
Number of units tested
Number of failures
FR(N) =
Number of unit-hours of operating time
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Failure Rate Example
20 air conditioning units designed for use in
NASA space shuttles operated for 1,000 hours
One failed after 200 hours and one after 600 hours
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FR(%) = (100%) = 10%
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2
FR(N) = = .000106 failure/unit hr
20,000 - 1,200
1
MTBF = = 9,434 hrs
.000106
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Providing Redundancy
Provide backup components to
increase reliability
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Redundancy Example
A redundant process is installed to support
the earlier example where Rs = .713
R1 R2 R3
Reliability has
0.90 0.80 increased from
.713 to .94
0.90 0.80 0.99
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Maintenance Costs
The traditional view attempted to
balance preventive and breakdown
maintenance costs
Typically this approach failed to
consider the true total cost of
breakdowns
Inventory
Employee morale
Schedule unreliability
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Maintenance Costs
Total
costs Total
costs
Costs
costs
Breakdown
maintenance Preventive
costs maintenance
costs
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Maintenance Cost Example
Should the firm contract for maintenance
on their printers?
Number of Number of Months That
Breakdowns Breakdowns Occurred
0 2
1 8
2 6
3 4
Total : 20
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Maintenance Cost Example
1. Compute the expected number of
breakdowns
Number of Frequency Number of Frequency
Breakdowns Breakdowns
0 2/20 = .1 2 6/20 = .3
1 8/20 = .4 3 4/20 = .2
Expected number
of breakdowns = Number of
breakdowns x
Corresponding
frequency
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Maintenance Cost Example
2. Compute the expected breakdown cost per
month with no preventive maintenance
= (1.6)($300)
= $480 per month
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Maintenance Cost Example
3. Compute the cost of preventive
maintenance
Cost of expected
Preventive = Cost of
breakdowns if service + service contract
maintenance cost
contract signed
= (1 breakdown/month)($300) + $150/month
= $450 per month
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Total Productive
Maintenance (TPM)
Designing machines that are reliable, easy to
operate, and easy to maintain
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Problems With Preventive
Maintenance
Fix it whether or not it is broken
Scheduled replacement or
adjustment of parts/equipment with
a well-established service life
Typical example plant relamping
Sometimes misapplied
Replacing old but still good bearings
Over-tightening electrical lugs in
switchgear
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Another Maintenance Strategy
Predictive maintenance Using advanced
technology to monitor equipment and
predict failures
Using technology to detect and predict
imminent equipment failure
Visual inspection and/or scheduled
measurements of vibration, temperature, oil
and water quality
Measurements are compared to a healthy
baseline
Equipment that is trending towards failure
can be scheduled for repair
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Maintenance Strategy
Comparison
Resources/
Maintenance Technology Application
Strategy Advantages Disadvantages Required Example
Breakdown No prior Disruption of May need Office copier
work production, labor/parts
required injury or death at odd
hours
Preventive Work can Labor cost, Need to Plant
be may replace obtain relamping,
scheduled healthy labor/parts Machine
components for repairs lubrication
Predictive Impending Labor costs, Vibration, IR Vibration
failures can costs for analysis and oil
be detected detection equipment analysis of a
& work equipment and or large
scheduled services purchased gearbox
services
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In-Class Problems from the
Lecture Guide Practice Problems
Problem 1:
California Instruments, Inc., produces 3,000 computer chips per day.
Three hundred are tested for a period of 500 operating hours each.
During the test, six failed: two after 50 hours, two at 100 hours, one at
300 hours, and one at 400 hours.
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In-Class Problems from the
Lecture Guide Practice Problems
Problem 2:
If 300 of these chips are used in building a mainframe computer, how
many failures of the computer can be expected per month?
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In-Class Problems from the
Lecture Guide Practice Problems
Problem 3:
Find the reliability of this system:
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In-Class Problems from the
Lecture Guide Practice Problems
Problem 4:
Given the probabilities below, calculate the expected breakdown cost.
Assume a cost of $10 per breakdown.
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