Centre for Computational Geostatistics (CCG)

Fundamentals of Geostatistics

Overview

Preliminary Remarks
Numerical Modeling
Brief History of Geostatistics
Assumptions
Decision Making

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 Logistical Details

Notes and reference material:

PDF version provided
Notes can be printed if you want
Supplementary reference material also provided
See www.ualberta.ca/~cdeutsch for additional information

Requests:
Ask questions right away
Be on time

Software
Software is essential
There are commercial alternatives
This course is not on software

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 Background
Geostatistics is an approach and a toolkit that applies statistical and numerical
analysis principles to geological variables
The focus of this course is the fundamental principles of:
Geological heterogeneity modeling
Uncertainty assessment
Decision-making
Participants should leave with:
Appreciation for the place of geostatistics in support of geological modeling
Knowledge of the limitations of geostatistics
Background necessary to dig into more details
This course conveys selected concepts from geostatistics. Time is limited:
Citation Program in Applied Geostatistics (four weeks plus project)
Masters (M.Eng. and M.Sc.) Degrees (two years plus thesis)
Doctorate (Ph.D.) Degree (two more years plus thesis)
Background knowledge in statistics and mathematics would make this short
course easier, but background material will be given as we proceed
Review the breadth of modern geostatistics drilling into some important
principles along the way
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 Numerical Modeling
Historically, science involved (1) extensive data collection and physical
experimentation, then (2) deduction of laws consistent with the data
Now, science is much more concerned with (1) understanding and
quantifying physical laws, and (2) numerical modeling for inference
We now accept that uncertainty cannot be removed (account of E. Tellers
statement of how science has changed)
then we believed that everything could be predicted, now we
know that we can only predict in a probabilistic sense

In general:
Numerical modeling has become more important than physical experimentation,
Inductive reasoning has become more popular than deductive reasoning,
Uncertainty is quantified and managed rather than ignored.
Numerical modeling is ubiquitous in modern
science and engineering (virtually all design
is on the computer)

Given how important numerical modeling is,

we should study how to do it well
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 Historical Perspective
A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a
mathematical theory of probability by two French
mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat

Rev. Thomas Bayes (1702-1761) first used

probability inductively and established a
mathematical basis for probability inference

In 1812 Pierre de Laplace (1749-1827)

introduced a host of new ideas and
mathematical techniques in his book,
Thorie Analytique des Probabilits

Carl Friedrich Gauss (1777-1855) developed the

important method of least squares and the
fundamental laws of probability distributions

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 History of Geostatistics
D. Krige and H. Sichel studied reserve estimation problems in South
Africa from the 1950's establishing the problem
Professor Georges Matheron (1930-2000) built the major concepts of the
theory for estimating resources he named Geostatistics
The monumental Trait de gostatistique applique (Editions Technip,
France, 1962-63) defines the fundamental tools of linear geostatistics:
variography, variances of estimation and dispersion, and kriging.

Two of Matheron's first students (Journel and David) would leave for the
USA and Canada and start new centers of geostatistical research
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 Geostatistics
Business Need: make the best possible decisions in presence of
uncertainty. One of the biggest uncertainties is the numerical
description of the subsurface.

Statistics is concerned with scientific methods for collecting, organizing,

summarizing, presenting and analyzing data, as well as drawing valid
conclusions and making reasonable decisions on the basis of such
analysis

Geostatistics is a branch of applied statistics that places emphasis on:

(1) geological context of the data
(2) spatial relationship between the data
(3) data of different volumetric support and precision

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 Some Preliminary Remarks
Geostatistics is statistical modeling and not geological modeling
Geological (physical) constraints must be considered
Adapt techniques to mimic geological features

Geostatistics is useful for:

Putting geology into numbers
Estimation
Quantifying uncertainty
Sample design
Simulation / risk analysis

Geostatistics does not:

Work well as a black box
Replace the need for common sense and good judgment
Save time
Make modeling any easier

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 Why Geostatistics?
The best approach to model the spatial distribution of geological
properties at the present time
Better modeling of variability:
Controllable degree of spatial variability
Estimates are more reliable
Framework to integrate data:
Geological interpretation
Direct measurements (hard data) and secondary variables (soft data)
Data representing different measurement supports
Assess uncertainty in process performance due to uncertainty in
geological model
Practicality / consistency with data
Repeatability / audit-trail
Easy to merge incremental data

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 Statistical Modeling of Geology
There is a single true distribution of properties in each deposit at any instance
in geological time
The true distribution is the result of a complex succession of physical, chemical,
and biological processes
Although some of these depositional and diagenetic processes may be
understood, we do not completely understand all of the processes and have no
access to the initial and boundary conditions in sufficient detail to provide the
unique true distribution
We adopt a numerical geostatistical model because we have no alternative

Rock Type 1
Rock Type 2
Rock Type 3
Rock Type 4
Rock Type 5
Rock Type 6

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 Stochastic Modeling
Reality Model
Distribution of Rock/Fluid Properties Distribution of the Rock/Fluid Properties

single true distribution multiple stochastic models

Recovery Process Recovery Process

actual process implemented numerical model of process

Field Response Field Response

Single true response Distribution of

possible responses
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 Uncertainty and Mapping
Uncertainty: All numerical models would be found in error if we were to
excavate that unsampled volume and take exhaustive measurements: There is
uncertainty. This uncertainty exists because of our ignorance/lack of
knowledge. It is not an inherent feature of the deposit.

Uniqueness and Smoothing: Conventional mapping algorithms were devised to

create smooth maps to reveal large scale geologic trends; for most
applications, however, the extreme high and low values often have a large
affect on process performance and reserve calculations

Transfer
Function

Distribution of possible
Multiple stochastic models responses

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 Some Comments on Uncertainty
Uncertainty exists because of incomplete data:
Cannot be avoided,
Can be reduced by consideration of all relevant data, and
Can be managed

The main steps we will propose are:

1. Conceptualize a numerical modeling scheme
2. Quantify the uncertainty in each of the inputs
3. Construct numerical geological models
4. Transfer the input uncertainty through to output uncertainty
5. Make optimal decisions in presence of uncertainty

Lets look at a small example

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An Application to Miscible Flood Design

Srivastava, 1990 - SPE 20608

The decision to be optimized:
How much solvent should be injected?

The answer depends on the connected pore volume.

The uncertainty in the connected pore volume can be quantified with
geostatistical simulation.
The loss function is a function of the cost of solvent and the oil price.

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 Continuity of the Sand
Assessment of the connected pore volume requires numerical
models of the reservoir
The most important input for construction of numerical reservoir
models is a variogram assessment of spatial continuity:

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 Numerical Reservoir Models

Geostatistical procedures are

used to build reservoir models:
3-D models
Honor all available data
Reflect appropriate pattern of
continuity
Most important input source of
uncertainty for this little problem

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 Transfer Function
Full transfer function would be flow simulation to evaluate connected
reservoir accessible to miscible flood
A simple transfer function, that is, a random walk simulator to
determine connected reservoir was considered

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 What is Connected?
Cannot inject a stochastic amount of solvent
Decision requires a single value to be decided upon
What value should be retained?

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 Loss Function

Consequences of injecting too much (cost of wasted solvent)

Consequences of not injecting enough (cost of lost revenue)
Determine optimal amount that generates the maximum
expected revenue or minimum expected loss

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 The Answer
Depends on the relative cost of solvent and price of oil
Makes intuitive sense
Provides a quantitative approach to balance factors that have
historically been addressed by feel

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 Review of Main Points
Review the fundamentals of geostatistics
Discuss the philosophy and specific tools
Modern science and engineering involves:
Inductive reasoning based on principles and limited data
Extensive numerical modeling
Uncertainty exists because of our incomplete knowledge
Geostatistics does not make modeling easier, but value is added
with a good model of variability and uncertainty
Model heterogeneity that affects reserve calculations
Quantify uncertainty in numerical geological model
Transfer geological uncertainty through to response uncertainty
Must also quantify consequences of making a mistake for optimal
decision making

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