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Note: Oil production is crude + condensate from http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/ Oil price is

West Texas Intermediate spot price http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_m.htm
    

Note: Oil production is crude + condensate from http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/ Oil price is

West Texas Intermediate spot price http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_m.htm
|
 
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Note: Based on EIA data from http://www.eia.doe.gov/overview_hd.html

Other bio-fuels (solar, geothermal, etc.) omitted because of tiny quantity.
   
  
 

  
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º Not high enough to encourage substitutes
º Not high enough to encourage increased drilling
º May still be high enough to cause recession; more debt
defaults
º Much of the time situation will look like over-supply of
fuel
º Issue is affordability
º Few will connect issue with lack of @
 oil


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,  )

Note: Graph created from Appendix A data from —
 

  

 



 

by Vaclav Smil, Praeger, 2010, Santa Barbara, California.
   |
º More recessions likely to keep GHG from growing
º Fewer businesses making things
º More layoffs, so families cut back further
º Home prices drop more
º Government tax revenues decline
º Cut back on road paving
º Cut back in universities
º Cut back in research funds

º Greenhouse gasses may even decline significantly

º 80% reduction by 2050 seems to relate to one oil decline
scenario
   | 
º weduction in oil use takes on new urgency
º Not just climate change³oil availability may decline greatly in
the not too distant future

º Usual approaches won·t work as well

º Carbon taxes likely to seriously impact economy
º Technology changes will be more difficult to implement

º Approaches may need to be more pragmatic

º Concentrate on high return, low cost items ² carpools, bikes
º May not be able to maintain current standard of living
   | - .
º Natural gas and coal will decline at some point as well
º Oil decline may affect coal and gas
º Directly, or through financial system, international trade

º Likely approach will be to tax oil and gas producers

º Impact will be to cut oil and gas production
º Likely to cut production, cause more price oscillations
º May send economy down further
º Make it more difficult to pay for imports
º Won·t help alternatives
º Doesn·t seem helpful