What causes

global warming?
 In the Sun for Five Minutes
• What’s the Engineering Metric?

• Energy = Power X Time

• Earth’s Energy Balance

• What’s balanced?

• How?

• Simple Stock and Flow Model

NASA – Earth Observatory
 External forcings
3 ways to change radiation balance of Earth

Stop
 External forcings
3 ways to change radiation balance of Earth

1. Change incoming solar radiation

– Change Earth’s orbit or Sun itself
2. Change fraction of solar radiation that is
reflected (albedo effect)
– cloud cover, atmospheric particles, or vegetation
3. Alter longwave radiation from Earth
back towards space
– by changing GHG concentrations
 External forcings
3 ways to change radiation balance of Earth

1. Change incoming solar radiation

– Change Earth’s orbit or Sun itself

– when the radiation reaches the outer limit of

the Earth's atmosphere, several hundred
kilometers over the Earth's surface, the
radiative flux is approximately 1360 W/m2
Fate of sunlight when it strikes an object

When an object absorbs sunlight, the electromagnetic

radiation it then emits has longer wavelengths than
the incident radiation
the average intensity of solar energy
reaching the top of the atmosphere
directly facing the Sun is about 1,360
watts per square meter, according to
measurements made by the most
recent NASA satellite missions. This
amount of power is known as the total
solar irradiance.

NASA – Earth Observatory

NASA – Earth Observatory
Averaged over the entire planet, the amount of sunlight arriving at the top of
Earth’s atmosphere is only one-fourth of the total solar irradiance, or
approximately 340 watts per square meter.

NASA – Earth Observatory

The tropics (from 0 to 23.5° latitude) receive about 90% of the energy
compared to the equator, the mid-latitudes (45°) roughly 70%, and the Arctic
and Antarctic Circles about 40%.

NASA – Earth Observatory

 Average annual Solar
irradiation
approximately
1361 wm-2

341.3 wm-2

Annual mean insolation (watts/meter2) at the top of Earth's

atmosphere (TOA) and at the planet's surface
 External forcings
3 ways to change radiation balance of Earth

1. Change incoming solar radiation

– Change Earth’s orbit or Sun itself
2. Change fraction of solar radiation that is
reflected (albedo effect)
– cloud cover, atmospheric particles or vegetation
Fate of sunlight when it strikes an object

When an object absorbs sunlight, the electromagnetic

radiation it then emits has longer wavelengths than
the incident radiation
 Ben Franklin, Climate Scientist
• In 1763, Franklin took part in discussions with
colonial scholars about the effects of
deforestation on local climate. As forests were
cleared for farming in the early American
colonies, Franklin agreed with the other
colonials that "cleared land absorbs more heat
and melts snow quicker." However, he thought
that many years of observations were necessary
before any conclusive evidence could be
gathered on the effects of deforestation on the
local climate.
NASA Earth Observatory: Where Every Day is Earth Day
Albedo, reflection of solar energy, of various surfaces on Earth
Minimum amount of Arctic sea ice
Global albedo, measured by the Terra satellite
Albedo of Earth’s landmasses, Terra satellite
Solar radiation (watts per square meter) reflected during September 2008.

Along the equator, clouds reflected a large proportion of sunlight, while the
pale sands of the Sahara caused the high reflectiveness in North Africa.
Neither pole is receiving much incoming sunlight at this time of year, so
they reflect little energy even though both are ice-covered.

NASA – Earth Observatory

 2000 - 2011

NASA: Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES)

NASA – Earth Observatory
 External forcings
3 ways to change radiation balance of Earth
1. Change incoming solar radiation
– Change Earth’s orbit or Sun itself
2. Change fraction of solar radiation that is
reflected (albedo effect)
– cloud cover, atmospheric particles or vegetation
3. Alter longwave radiation from Earth
back towards space
– by changing GHG concentrations
Fate of sunlight when it strikes an object

When an object absorbs sunlight, the electromagnetic

radiation it then emits has longer wavelengths than
the incident radiation
NASA – Earth Observatory
Infrared image of a person
A thought experiment
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I
to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S. et al]
NASA – Earth Observatory
NASA – Earth Observatory
About 25 percent of incoming solar energy leaves the
surface through evaporation. Liquid water molecules
absorb incoming solar energy, and they change phase
from liquid to gas. The heat energy that it took to
evaporate the water is latent in the random motions of the
water vapor molecules as they spread through the
atmosphere. When the water vapor molecules condense
back into rain, the latent heat is released to the
surrounding atmosphere. Evaporation from tropical
oceans and the subsequent release of latent heat are the
primary drivers of the atmospheric heat engine

NASA – Earth Observatory

Towers of cumulus clouds transport energy away from the surface of the
Earth. Solar heating drives evaporation. Warm, moist air becomes buoyant
and rises, moving energy from the surface high into the atmosphere. Energy
is released back into the atmosphere when the water vapor condenses into
liquid water or freezes into ice crystals NASA – Earth Observatory
The atmosphere radiates the equivalent of 59% of incoming sunlight back to space as
thermal infrared energy, or heat. Where does the atmosphere get its energy? The
atmosphere directly absorbs about 23% of incoming sunlight, and the remaining energy
is transferred from the Earth’s surface by evaporation (25%), convection (5%), and
thermal infrared radiation (a net of 5-6%). The remaining thermal infrared energy from
the surface (12%) passes through the atmosphere and escapes to space.

NASA – Earth Observatory

EARTH’S GLOBAL ENERGY BUDGET
by Kevin E. Trenberth, John T. Fasullo, and Jeffrey Kiehl
BAMS 2009
Infrared image of a person
Blackbody radiation from the sun (5780 K) and Earth (287 K)

Microns = 10-6 meters

Earth’s typical longwave emissions at the top of the atmosphere
Composition of normal dry air
Absorbance of mid-range infrared wavelengths by
greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere
All atmospheric gases have a unique pattern of energy absorption: they absorb some
wavelengths of energy but are transparent to others. The absorption patterns of water
vapor (blue peaks) and carbon dioxide (pink peaks) overlap in some wavelengths.
Carbon dioxide is not as strong a greenhouse gas as water vapor, but it absorbs energy
in wavelengths (12-15 micrometers) that water vapor does not, partially closing the
“window” through which heat radiated by the surface would normally escape to space.

NASA – Earth Observatory

Carbon dioxide is a very strong absorber of thermal infrared energy with
wavelengths longer than 12-13 micrometers, which means that increasing
concentrations of carbon dioxide partially “close” the atmospheric window. In
other words, wavelengths of outgoing thermal infrared energy that our
atmosphere’s most abundant greenhouse gas—water vapor—would have let
escape to space are instead absorbed by carbon dioxide.

NASA – Earth Observatory

280 ppm CO2
400 ppm CO2
NASA – Earth Observatory
incoming sunlight minus reflected light and outgoing heat

NASA – Earth Observatory

The absorption of outgoing thermal infrared by carbon dioxide means that Earth
still absorbs about 70 percent of the incoming solar energy, but an equivalent
amount of heat is no longer leaving. The exact amount of the energy imbalance
is very hard to measure, but it appears to be a little over 0.8 watts per square
meter. The imbalance is inferred from a combination of measurements, including
satellite and ocean-based observations of sea level rise and warming.

NASA – Earth Observatory

IPCC, 2013: Climate Change
2013: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
 External forcings
3 ways to change radiation balance of Earth
1. Change incoming solar radiation
– Change Earth’s orbit or Sun itself
2. Change fraction of solar radiation that is
reflected (albedo effect)
– cloud cover, atmospheric particles or vegetation
3. Alter longwave radiation from Earth
back towards space
– by changing GHG concentrations
Ben Franklin, Climate Scientist
In the last years of his life, Franklin conducted studies on
the effects that volcanic eruptions might have on
weather patterns, cloud formation, and cloud
electrification. He hypothesized that the severe Northern
Hemisphere winter of 1783–84 was linked to the volcanic
eruption occurring in Iceland in the summer of 1783.

"a constant fog over all Europe, and [a] great part of
North America."

Franklin suggested that there was a reduction in the

amount of solar energy received at the Earth's surface
after the volcanic eruption due to the ash and other
particles inserted into the atmosphere.

NASA Earth Observatory: Where Every Day is Earth Day

Children’s Blizzard
1888
 Mt. St. Helens - 0.1°C

El Chichon - 0.3°C

Pinatubo 0.6°C
Krakatoa

Laki - 1°C Tambora

Human GHGs = 10,000 X volcanic GHGs
Dessler_Fig. 6.4
 Aerosol–cloud interaction
• A process by which a perturbation to aerosol
affects the microphysical properties and
evolution of clouds through the aerosol role as
cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei,
particularly in ways that affect radiation or
precipitation; such processes can also include
the effect of clouds and precipitation on aerosol.
• Impacts strength of convection, precipitation
efficiency, cloud fraction, lifetime or water
content of clouds, and the formation or
suppression of clouds in remote areas due to
altered circulations.
Aerosol–radiation interaction
• scattering and absorbing radiation
• rapid adjustments to the initial change in
radiation. These adjustments include
changes in clouds caused by the impact of
the radiative heating on convective or
larger-scale atmospheric circulations,
 Clouds

Cool or Warm Earth?

Reflection of radiation is slightly larger than heat trapping effects

 Jet Contrails after 9-11
• Contrails reduce the transfer of both
incoming solar and outgoing infrared
radiation
• Incoming solar blocked by contrails.
• In absence of contrails, temperatures
increased by 1.8°C in the three days
following
• Contrails cool in the daytime.
 Contrails Trap Heat at Night
• "Sept. 11-14, 2001, had the biggest diurnal temperature range of
any three-day period in the past 30 years.” (Travis et al.)

• Daytime temperatures rose, night-time temperatures fell.

• The diurnal temperature range is the difference between the

nighttime low temperature and the daytime high temperature,
usually for a given day.

• "Because persisting contrails can reduce the transfer of both

incoming solar and outgoing infrared radiation and so reduce the
daily temperature range, we attribute at least a portion of this
anomaly to the absence of contrails over this period."

• Diurnal temperature variations a key driver in biological activity.

Why are the Poles Changing More Rapidly?