Statistika Ekonomi Lanjutan

DR. Deden Dinar Iskandar, SE, MA

Slide 1
Slide 2
Slide 3
 Continuous Probability Distributions

 A continuous random variable can assume any value

in an interval on the real line or in a collection of
intervals.
 It is not possible to talk about the probability of the
random variable assuming a particular value.
 Instead, we talk about the probability of the random
variable assuming a value within a given interval.

Slide 4
 Continuous Probability Distributions

 The probability of the random variable assuming a

value within some given interval from x1 to x2 is
defined to be the area under the graph of the
probability density function between x1 and x2.

1  ( x   )2 /2 2
Normal f (x)  e
f (x)  2

where:
 = mean
x  = standard deviation
x1 x2  = 3.14159
e = 2.71828 Slide 5
 Normal Probability Distribution

 The normal probability distribution is the most

important distribution for describing a continuous
random variable.
 It is widely used in statistical inference.

Slide 6
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The distribution is symmetric; its skewness

measure is zero.

Slide 7
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The entire family of normal probability

distributions is defined by its mean  and its
standard deviation  .

Standard Deviation 

x
Mean 

Slide 8
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The highest point on the normal curve is at the

mean, which is also the median and mode.

Slide 9
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The mean can be any numerical value: negative,

zero, or positive.

x
-10 0 20

Slide 10
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The standard deviation determines the width of the

curve: larger values result in wider, flatter curves.

 = 15

 = 25

Slide 11
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics
Probabilities for the normal random variable are
given by areas under the curve. The total area
under the curve is 1 (.5 to the left of the mean and
.5 to the right).

.5 .5
x

Slide 12
 Normal Probability Distribution

Since the area under the curve represents probability,

the probability of a normal random variable at one
specific value is zero . With a single value, one can’t
find the area since the area must be bound by two
values. Thus,

P(x = 10) = 0 P(x = 3) = 0 P(x = 7.5) = 0

However, one can find the following probabilities:

P( 1 < x < 3) P(2.2 < x < 3.7) P(x > 3)

Slide 13
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

68.26% of values of a normal random variable

are within +/- 1 standard deviation of its mean.

95.44% of values of a normal random variable

are within +/- 2 standard deviations of its mean.

99.72% of values of a normal random variable

are within +/- 3 standard deviations of its mean.

Slide 14
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics
99.72%
95.44%
68.26%

x
  + 3
 – 3  – 1  + 1
 – 2  + 2

Slide 15
 Normal Probability Distribution

There may be thousands of normal distribution curves,

each with a different mean and a different standard
deviation. Since the shapes are different, the areas
under the curves between any two points are also
different.

To make life easier, all normal distributions can be

converted to a standard normal distribution. A
standard normal distribution has a mean of 0 and a
standard deviation of 1.

Slide 16
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

The letter z is used to designate the standard

normal random variable.



z
0

Slide 17
 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution

requires the use
of this formula x
z


Slide 18
Slide 19
Slide 20
Slide 21
Slide 22
Slide 23
Slide 24
Slide 25
Slide 26
Slide 27
Slide 28