7.

Reliability based design

Objectives
• Learn formulation of reliability design problem.
Understand difference between reliability-based
design and deterministic design
• Learn how to quickly approximate reliability of
component using mean value, first order, second
moment method
• Be exposed to three example problems involving
analysis and design
 Deterministic vs. Reliability Design
• Find design variables • Find design variables
• To minimize cost (or • To minimize cost (or
weight) weight)
• so that safety factor  • so that reliability 
minimum acceptable minimum acceptable
value value
Approximate calculation of reliability
• Mean value, first order, second moment
method (MVFOSM) method
• Assumptions:
– Random variables are Gaussian
– Linear Taylor approximation of performance
function, g(x1,…,xn), is accurate (performance
function; positive implies survival, negative
implies failure)
Approximate calculation of reliability
(continued)
Linear Taylor approximation of g about mean
values of random variables:
gi
g ( x1,..., xn )  g ( E ( X1),..., E ( X n ))   ( xi  E ( X i ))
i 1,...,n xi
 Approximate calculation of reliability
(continued)
Mean value of g

E ( g ( x1,..., xn ))  g ( E ( X1),..., E ( X n ))

Standard deviation of g

g 2 2 g g
 g2   ( )   2    Xi X j
i 1,...,n xi i 1,..., n j i 1,..., n xi x j
X i

The derivatives are calculated at the mean values of r.v.s

Approximate calculation of reliability
(continued)

Failure probability = (-)

Reliability=1-failure probability

E( g)
  safety index 
g
Generic procedure for solving reliability
design problem
• Develop equation for performance function
• Develop method for calculating the reliability as a function
of the design variable(s). Since many iterations are
required in design we need an approximate method (e.g.
MVFOSM) for calculating reliability at this stage
• Find the optimum values of the design variable(s) so that
the requirement for acceptable reliability as well as other
requirements are satisfied
• Validate the final design, i.e. compute the reliability of the
final design using an accurate method (for example Monte-
Carlo simulation)
• Redesign the system if needed.
 Example 1
• Tension element
• Given probability distribution of axial load,
ultimate strength and coefficient of
variation of diameter, find mean diameter of
element that has reliability 0.9999.

P
P d
 Example 2: Design of I-beam
• Find web height of I-beam to meet given
reliability target
Example 3: Design-oriented analysis
of torsion bar of a truck
 Suggested reading
• Frangopol, D, M., and Maute, K., “Reliability-
based Optimization of Civil and Aerospace
Structural Systems,” Engineering Design
Reliability Handbook, CRC press, 2004, p. 24-1.
• Mourelatos, Z., P., et al., “Probabilistic Analysis
and Design in Automotive Industry,” Engineering
Design Reliability Handbook, CRC press, 2004, p.
38-1.