HHT HTT THT TTT Probability distribution of the random variable X No. Heads Probability x P(X=x) 0 0.125 1 0.375 2 0.375 3 0.125 1.000 Probability histogram for the number of heads obtained in 3 tosses of a balanced dime Relative-frequency histogram & superimposed normal curve Normally Distributed Variables & Normal- Curve Areas For a normally distributed variable, the percentage of all possible observations that lie within any specified range equals the corresponding area under its associated normal curve, expressed as a percentage Normally Distributed Variable
A normally distributed variable is one whose
distribution has the shape of a normal curve. A normal curve Graph of generic normal distribution Three normal distributions Characteristics of a Normal Curve
1. Bell-shaped with center at the mean, m.
2. Extends to infinity in both directions. 3. Area under the curve equals 1. 4. > 99% of area falls within +/- 3s from m. Graph of generic normal distribution Standardized Variable For a variable x, the variable z= x-m s is called the standardized version of x or the standardized variable corresponding to the variable x. Standard Normal Distribution/Curve
A normally distributed variable having mean 0
and standard deviation 1 is said to have the standard normal distribution. It’s associated normal curve is called the standard normal curve. Standard Normal Curve Standardizing normal distributions Finding percentages from areas under the standard normal curve Standard Normal Distribution and Standard Normal Curve Basic Properties of the Standard Normal Curve 1. Total area under SNC is 1. 2. SNC extends indefinitely in both directions, approaching, but never touching the x-axis. 3. SNC is symmetric about 0. The two halves are mirror images of each other. 4. Almost all the area under the SNC lies between –3 and +3. Finding the area under the standard normal curve to the left of 1.23 Finding the area under the standard normal curve to the left of 1.23 Finding the area under the standard normal curve to the right of 0.76 Finding the area under the standard normal curve to the right of 0.76 Finding the area under the standard normal curve that lies between –0.68 and 1.82 Finding the area under the standard normal curve that lies between –0.68 and 1.82 Summary Finding the z-score having area 0.04 to its left Areas under the standard normal curve Finding the z-score having area 0.04 to its left The za Notation
The symbol za is used to
denote the z-score having area alpha to its right under the standard normal curve. The za notation z 0.025 z 0.025 z 0.05 z 0.05 Finding two z-scores dividing the area under the SNC Finding two z-scores dividing the area under the SNC To Determine % or P(X) for a NDV 1. Sketch the normal curve associated with the variable. 2. Shade the region of interest: mark the x- values. 3. Compute the z-scores for the x-values. 4. Use the table to compute the area under the Standard Normal Curve. Graph of Procedure To Determine Observations for a % or P(X) for a NDV 1. Sketch the normal curve associated with the variable. 2. Shade the region of interest. 3. Use the table to obtain z-scores for shaded region. 4. Obtain the x-value having the z-score obtained the step above. Example An article by Scott M. Berry titled “Drive for Show and Putt for Dough” (Chance,1999, Vol. 12(4),pp. 50-54)discussed driving distances of PGA players. The mean distance for tee-shots on the 1999 men’s PGA tour is 272.2 yards with a standard deviation of 8.12 yards. Assume that the 1999 tee-shot distances are normally distributed. Example a. Find the percentage of tee-shots between 260 and 280 yards. b. Find the percentage of tee-shots greater than 300 yards. c. Find the 95th percentile. 68.26 -95.44-99.74 Rule For a Normally distributed variable: 1. > 68.26% of all possible observations lie within one standard deviation on either side of the mean (between m-s and m+s). 2. > 95.44% of all possible observations lie within two standard deviations on either side of the mean (between m-2s and m+2s). 3. > 99.74% of all possible observations lie within two standard deviations on either side of the mean (between m-3s and m+3s). 68.26-95.44-99.74 Rule Example a. Find the percentage of tee-shots between 260 and 280 yards. b. Find the percentage of tee-shots greater than 300 yards. c.Find the 95th percentile.