Introduction of Bayesian Network

in Risk Analysis of Maritime

Accidents in Bangladesh

Sohanur Rahman
M.Sc. Student, Department of Naval Architecture &
Marine Engineering, BUET, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February 22-23, 2017. 1

 Introduction

 Bangladesh is a riverine country and communication by waterways is of great

importance especially in the southern region of the country.
 At present there are 11 inland ports ,23 coastal and offshore island terminals.

 In Bangladesh, maritime safety has become a severe issue when a number of

passenger launch accidents killed several thousands of people within the past few
years.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 2

 Classification of Waterways

 A Dutch consulting firm, the Netherlands Engineering

Consultants (NEDECO), introduced a classification system for
waterways in the country in 1967.
 According to NEDECO, 12,000 km of waterways were
navigable during the 1960s, which continued up to the early
1970s.
 The Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Master Plan
(BIWTMAS) of 1989 was prepared by another Dutch
consultant, DHV. It divides inland waterways into four classes,
created according to the Least Available Draft.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 3

 NEDECO Classification of Waterway

Table 1: NEDECO Classification of waterways

Class Definition
I. These were main arteries of traffic and BIWTA was to guarantee indicated least available draft
throughout the year, even by taking up dredging.
II. Important traffic lines; BIWTA was to provide aids to navigation, by draft group.
III. Traffic routes of local importance; BIWTA responsible for channel marking.
Source: NEDECO, 1967.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 4

 Current Classification of IWT Network

Table 2: Current Classification of IWT network

Class Indicated draft(m) Length (m) % Classification Criteria

I. 3.6 683 11 These are major transport corridors where LAD

of 3.6m is required to be maintained round the
year.
II. 2.1 1000 17 These link major inland ports or places of
economic importance to class-I routes.
III. 1.5 1885 32 Being seasonal in nature, it is not feasible to
maintain higher LAD throughout the year.
IV. <1.5 2400 40 These are seasonal routes where maintenance of
LAD of 1.5m or more in dry season is not
feasible.
Total 5968 100
Source: Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Master Plan 1989, by DHV, the Netherlands.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 5

 Class IWT Routes

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 6

 Methodology & Sources of Data

 The primary goal of this study is to compile and maintain a technical

accident database working as a tool for in-depth accident analysis.
 Emphasis has been given on collection of accident data from various
sources such as reports of Department of Shipping (DOS) and
Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA).
 a total of 153 maritime accidents are being considered in this
investigation and a database has been developed using Microsoft
Excel which comprises the vessel name, accident date, accident route,
gross tonnage, reason behind the accident and number of loss of lives
due to these accidents.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 7

 Risk analysis model of maritime accidents

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 8

 Risk analysis model of maritime
accidents

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 9

 Results of the consequence model

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 10

 Type of accident vessels in Bangladesh

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 11

 Causes of Maritime Vessel Accidents

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 12

 Causes of Maritime Vessel Accidents

Collision:
 the majority of vessels plying the rivers do not have fitness
certificates or route permits.
 During the monsoon, the width of the waterways increases to
several kilometers but navigable channel is still generally
narrow, shallow and meandering.
 Passenger vessel operators have no proper knowledge on
Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing
Collisions at Sea (COLREG) and training on the rules and
regulation involved in navigating the passenger vessels,
especially during night time journeys.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 13

 Causes of Maritime Vessel Accidents

Overloading:
 The passenger vessel owners, in their quest for maximum profit,
tend to overload by doubling or tripling the actual carrying
capacity of their vessels which causes the vessel unstable.
 A safe design of the vessel is prerequisite for the stability of the
vessel.
 If an vessel inclines up to a certain angle (angle of vanishing
stability), then it will not to be able to return of its upright
condition thus it will incline more and losses its stability and
become capsize.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 14

 Causes of Maritime Vessel Accidents

Inclement weather:
 In case of inclement weather, strong wind creates pressure on
lateral area of superstructure or lateral area of the vessel exposed
to the weather, which tends to incline the vessel.
 As per weather criterion of the Inland Shipping Stability rules,
2001 of Bangladesh maximum allowable wind pressure is equal
to 0.0322 t/m2.
 As per inland shipping stability rules, 2001 passenger vessels are
not allowed to ply at a wind speed more than 10m/s.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 15

 Causes of Maritime Vessel Accidents

Fire & Explosion:

 Most of the passenger Vessels does not follow Structural fire
protection plan and fire control plan.
 The correct insulation is not placed in the right place.
 In machinery space and galley where fire can occur most
probably, A-60 insulation is mandatory.
 In machinery space and galley where fire can occur most
probably, A-60 insulation is mandatory.
 LSA items are not sufficient in the vessels.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 16

 Causes of Maritime Vessel Accidents

Bottom damage:
 Most vessels in Bangladesh do not follow common structural
rules when building new vessels.
 Most vessels do not have preliminary longitudinal strength
calculation. So, they do not meet minimum still water bending
moment (Hogging/ Sagging) and minimum hull section modulus
which causes bottom rapture.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 17

 Sunken Deck Vessel

MV Shathil-1 (Length : 25 m)

Date of Accident : 3 May 2014
Place of Accident : Kalagasia River, Patuakhali
Casualties : 16 Passengers dead

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 18

 Sunken Deck Vessel

MV Pinak-6 (Length : 19.50 m)

Date of Accident : 4 August 2014
Place of Accident : Mawa
Casualties : 48 Passengers dead
(62 Passengers Missing)

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 19

 Sunken Deck Vessel

 Length: 20-30 Meter

 Traditional Wooden Launch changed as steel body .
 Main deck at the river water level or under.
 Vessel draught is so less from the upper part and upper
part’s weight is more for being a double Decker.
 No watertight integrity, because it has no underwater
compartment . So, the vessel capsized easily within a short
period of time by a small push or a large wave.
 The casualty is more because of passengers not being able
to come out from the Cabins and the lower deck.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 20

 Conclusions

 In Bangladesh, most of the maritime accidents have been

occurred by privately owned vessels. So, government should
enforce the laws more strictly on privately owned vessels.
 Small gross tonnage vessels have more accidents than large
ones. So, particular attention has to be given on the design
and regulations of smaller vessels.
 In Bangladesh, most of the accidents have been occurred by
passenger vessels. Many mechanized passenger boats operate
in seasonal routes where most of the accidents have been
happened. So, authority should take proper steps to maintain
the perfect condition of navigability.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 21

 Conclusions

 Most of the accidents in Bangladesh have been happened due to

collision. One of the main reasons would be inland vessel
operators do not have a license means that they are unskilled.
Because they have no proper knowledge on Convention on the
International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea
(COLREG) and training on the rules and regulation involved in
navigating the vessels.
 Almost 35% inland vessel accidents are found to occur during
the months of March to May when violent nor ’westers lashes
the country frequently.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 22

 Recommendations

• There are still many aspects of this paper which need to be

improved. Firstly the results have been still inconclusive because of
insufficient accident data. Secondly the accident data need to be
collected in more detail so that Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is carried
out to find out the root cause of accidents.

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 23

 Thank You

3/28/2018 ICMEAS, MIST, February ,2017. 24