Professional Documents
Culture Documents
August 3, 2006
Aug. 3, 2006
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Introduction and Outline
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2020 Mega-Trends and Industry Environment of Korea
○ Negative Mega-Trends
- Aging: Change in Demographic Structure
- Degradation of Environment and Natural Resources
- Hegemony of Technology: Standardization and Intellectual Property Rights
8) Advent of Bio-economy
○ U.S. will remain the global superpower in 2020 due to the high population
growth rates.
○ Aging will weaken the potential for growth in Japan and EU.
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Industry Vision 2020s of Major Countries and Its Implications
35
in percent
30 29.4
27.1 27.3 27.1
26.1 25.9
25 24.5
25.2
22.4
21.2 Korea
20
18.6 Japan
17.3
UK
15 15
13.2
US
11
10
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: KIET∙Global Insight (2005)
Note: The shares are on the basis of norminal value added
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Industry Vision 2020s of Major Countries and Its Implications
Aug. 3, 2006
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6-8
Industry Vision 2020s of Major Countries and Its Implications
○ Especially, high demands are expected for business services, such as design,
consulting, logistic, and financial services.
Aug. 3, 2006
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Industry Vision 2020s of Major Countries and Its Implications
in percent
45
43.1 43.2
40 37.7
35 15.6 15
12.2
30
capital goods
25 intermediate goods
20 17.5 19.2 consumer goods
15.2
15
10
5 10.3 10 8.9
0
2000 2010 2020
Source: 王夢奎 編 (2005)
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6-10
Structural Changes and Competitiveness of Korean Industries
○ Per capita income: $14,100 in 2004 (24th among OECD member countries)
○ Total trade volume: 480 billion dollars in 2004 (12th in the world)
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6-11
Structural Changes and Competitiveness of Korean Industries
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6-12
Structural Changes and Competitiveness of Korean Industries
Aug. 3, 2006
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6-13
Structural Changes and Competitiveness of Korean Industries
65.2
70
60
50
41.2
39.6
Trade dependence
40 32.6
Export ratio
30
20.5 20.8
17.1
20
10.1
8.3
10
0
World U.S. EMU Japan Korea
Notes: 1) Trade dependence degree = (total exports + total imports) / total value added
2) Export ratio = total exports / total value added
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6-14
Structural Changes and Competitiveness of Korean Industries
ICT and
related components
automobile
textile Semiconductor and electronic parts
Aug. 3, 2006
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6-15
Structural Changes and Competitiveness of Korean Industries
in percent
0.9
10.4
2001~2004 6.6
2.9
0.9
service industries
12.7
1996~2000 leading industries
10.4
3.6 manufacture
total industry
1.7
11.4
1991~1995 8.7
4.7
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
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6-16
Structural Changes and Competitiveness of Korean Industries
○ Contributed to the Korean economic growth by 0.66% annually from 2000 to 2004.
○ The Korean heavy industries benefited the most.
○ Light industries and agricultural products were negatively affected.
○ This trend will continue until 2010s and aggravate the bi-polarization of the
Korean industries between light industries and heavy industries.
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6-17
Structural Changes and Competitiveness of Korean Industries
○ Policy measure may be needed for the specific sector where 'hollowing-out' is
abnormally accelerated.
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6-18
Korea Industry Vision 2020
Aug. 3, 2006
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6-19
Korea Industry Vision 2020
Forecast for GDP growth rates and per capita incomes by scenario
□ Based on the upper-bound forecast, annual GDP growth rate will be 5.1%
and Korea will become the global top 10 country in terms of GDP.
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6-20
Korea Industry Vision 2020
□ Trade volume will increase to over 1,400 billion dollars, ranking Korea as
the 7th largest trading country in the world
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6-22
Korea Industry Vision 2020
○ Increase in income will substantially boost demands and the imbalance between
exports
and domestic demand will be moderated.
Growth rate forecasts by expenditure item (baseline scenario)
Source: KIET
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6-23
Korea Industry Vision 2020
□ Over 3.6 million jobs will be created by 2020, and employment rate will
increase to 67%, reaching the level of developed countries.
Employment rate
Job creation
(2005~2020)
2004 2010 2015 2020
(unit: thousand jobs, percent)
Source: KIET
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Korea Industry Vision 2020
○ For a continuously growing and upgrading industry, new technology and new
products are needed.
○ Solid information for the future industry will induce rational investments and
lessen risks and uncertainty for investors.
○ Externality and public interest (C): large technological side effects and
strategically important items
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Korea Industry Vision 2020
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6-27
Korea Industry Vision 2020
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Korea Industry Vision 2020
Aug. 3, 2006
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Korea Industry Vision 2020
2001~2004 2005~2020
(unit: percent)
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6-30
Korea Industry Vision 2020
3.7
entire
industries 2.9
3.1
services 2005~2020
0.9
2001~2004
5.1
manufacture 6.6
0 2 4 6 8
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6-31
Korea Industry Vision 2020
shares 2005~2020
contribution contribution
2004 2020 growth rates
(unit: percent) degree percent
financial &
14.2 19.8 7.1 1.6 31.6
insurance
business services 9.0 12.9 7.2 1.1 21.5
telecommunition &
7.6 9.3 6.3 0.7 14.7
broadcasting
culture services 2.0 3.2 7.8 0.3 5.8
knowledge
32.9 45.2 7.0 3.2 63.8
services total
services total 100.0 100.0 4.9 4.9 100.0
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Korea Industry Vision 2020
60 60.5
57.8
50
2004
40.9
40 37.8 2020
30
22.4
20.6
20 20
16.2
10
0
Korea U.S. U.K. Germany Japan China
Aug. 3, 2006
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Korea Industry Vision 2020
□ The share of leading industry exports among total Korean exports will
continuously increase from 70% in 2004 to 75% in 2020.
Forecast of share in total export by industry (baseline scenario)
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6-34
Korea Industry Vision 2020
Aug. 3, 2006
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Korea Industry Vision 2020
2020
2004
(unit: percent) upper-bound baseline lower-bound
Automobile
(unit: percent) 2.8(7th) 4.0(6th) 3.5(7th) 2.9(7th)
Shipbuilding 30.5(1st) 30.0(1st) 26.0(1st) 21.4(1st)
General Machinery 2.0(8th) 4.3(8th) 3.7(8th) 3.1(8th)
Textile 3.5(6th) 2.3(7th) 2.0(8th) 1.7(8th)
Iron & Steel 4.4(6th) 8.3(3rd) 7.8(3rd) 6.4(4th)
Petrochemical 3.6(7th) 4.4(5th) 3.8(7th) 3.1(8th)
Source: KIET∙Global Insight (2005)
Electronics &
8.3(4th) 10.1(3rd) 8.7(3rd) 7.2(3rd)
Semiconductor
note: 1) shares in terms of dollar
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Korea Industry Vision 2020
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Korea Industry Vision 2020
Aug. 3, 2006
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Korea Industry Vision 2020
62.1 64 66.8
Employment rates(%) 59.8
(62.3) (64.4) (67.2)
Aug. 3, 2006
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Korea Industry Vision 2020
Korea's Industry Vision 2020 Active Korea 5.1% growth (upper-bound)
$49,000 Welfare State
◊ Leading industry, Knowledge services, Promising new industry:
Three sectors as the engine of growth
◊ Innovation in manufacture led productivity growth in Korea Economy
◊ Balanced growth of domestic demands & exports induces balanced
growth of service & manufacture
41 P romisin g S ectors
Korean Economy
Per capita income: $49,000
GDP: 10th largest
Total trade volume: 7th
Export of leading industry: 4th
Reflecting Industry
15 Mega-Trends Vision 2020s
of Major Countries
World E conomy
Aug. 3, 2006
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6-40
Thank you