Principles of Science and Systems

1
 Outline

• What is Science?
• Variables and Experimental Design
• Models and Systems
• Consensus and Conflict in Science
• Recognizing Pseudoscience
• Environmental Science
vs.
“Environmentalism”
2
 What is Science?
Science is:
 a methodical, logical process for gaining

knowledge about natural phenomena

 a cumulative body of knowledge produced by

informed, learned scholars

 a process based on careful observation

and hypothesis testing

 a way for us to explain how the natural world

works 3
KNOW
THESE!

4
 Science Depends on skepticism and
accuracy
• Ideally scientists are skeptical
and unbiased!
• Scientists strive for:
 accuracy - correctness of measurements

 reproducibility - repeatability of results

(repeating studies or tests is called

replication) 5
6
 Deductive & Inductive Reasoning
• Deductive reasoning (top down)-
logical reasoning from general to specific

General Observation: Every day I get up at

about 6:30 and make it to school on time.
Deduced Specific Conclusion: If I get up by
6:30 on Friday, I will get to school on time.

7
• Inductive reasoning (bottom up)-
reasoning from many SPECIFIC
observations to produce a general rule

Obs: Every sample of life on earth need water

to live.

Concl: Life on other planets would need water

to live
8
 Correlation does not imply Causality
Just because 2 things happen at the same time
does not mean one caused the other !!!!

This has been the basis for many false beliefs.

• http://www.buzzfeed.com/kjh2110/the-10-
most-bizarre-correlations#.nyqRknOe8

9
 Hypotheses and Scientific Theories

• Hypothesis - a testable explanation

(often an “If...Then… statement”)
• Scientific theory – an explanation that has
been supported by a large number of tests and is
considered by experts to be reliable
• Scientific LAW: a description of a natural
phenomenon, often depicted by a
mathematical formula

10
 Probability
• Probability is a measure of how likely
something is to occur.

• What is the probability of getting a natural

21 with the first 2 cards in a deck?
(and = x, or = +)
• Scientists often increase confidence in a
study by comparing results to a random
sample or a larger group.
11
 Statistics

• Many statistical tests focus on calculating the

probability that the observed results could have
occurred by chance.

• Usually ecological tests are considered

significant if this probability is less than 5%.

• The amount of confidence scientists have in the

results depends upon the sample size as well. A
large sample size is better than a small sample.

12
 Experimental Design
• Natural experiment - involves observation of events
that have already happened
• Manipulative experiment - conditions are
deliberately altered for one variable and all other
variables are held constant (such as the B4warmed
experiment at the beginning of the chapter)
• Controlled study - comparing a treatment group to a
control group which has not received the treatment
• Blind experiment – The subject is blind (doesn’t
know if they are the experimentee or the control).
• Double-blind experiment - Neither the subject nor
the researcher knows who is in the treatment group
• why do double-blind experiments?….it removes the
bias FROM THE SCIENTIST!
13
 Variables
• In each study there is one dependent variable
and one or more independent variables.
• The dependent variable is affected by what
happens to the independent variable.
• In a graph, the dependent variable is on the
vertical (Y) axis and the independent variable is
on the horizontal axis (X).

• Ex: you vary light exposure to see how it

effects flower development in plants. What
would you put on the Y axis?
14
 Models

• Models are simple representations of phenomena.

They can be physical models, model organisms,
mathematical models, or other types of models.

• They allow scientists to study complex systems and

predict the effect of conditions that are too difficult
to create and control.

• When multiple models agree, scientists gain

confidence.
15
 Systems

• are networks of interdependent components

and processes with materials and energy
flowing from one component to another.

• are a central concept in environmental

science.

• examples include ecosystems, climates

systems, geologic systems, economic
systems
16
 Components of a System

• State Variables store

resources such as
matter or energy or have
the pathways through
which these resources
move from one state
variable to another (the
plant and the animals
illustrated here in Fig.
2.9 are each state
variables).
17
 System Characteristics
• A System can be closed or open.
 Closed - self contained, exchanges no matter or
energy with the outside
 Open – exchanges matter and energy from
surroundings
• Throughput –the energy and matter that flow into,
through and out of a system.
• Positive feedback loop – self perpetuating, as an
increase in a state variable leads to further
increases in it. EX: having a baby (contractions)
• Negative feedback loop – suppresses change
within a system, helps to maintain stability in
systems. EX: glucose/insulin 18
 Stability of Systems
• Equilibrium - dynamic state in which system
is stable over time (homeostasis)
• Disturbance - periodic destructive events
such as fire or flood
• Resilience - ability of system to recover
quickly from disturbance
• State Shift –a severe disturbance in which
the system does not return to normal but
instead results in significant changes in some
of its state variables

19
20
21
 System Characteristics
Emergent properties are characteristics of a whole,
functioning system that are quantitatively or
qualitatively greater than the sum of the system’s
parts

Beautiful sights and sounds can make a system such as this mountain
meadow exciting to study.
22
 Consensus and Conflict

• Scientific consensus (general agreement

among informed scholars) stems from a
community of scientists who collaborate in a
cumulative, self-correcting process.

• Paradigm shifts (great changes in

explanatory frameworks) occur when a
majority of scientists agree that an old
explanation no longer works very well.
23
Recognizing Pseudoscience

24
 Environmental Science vs.
Environmentalism

• Environmental science is the use of

the scientific method to study
processes and systems in the
environment

• Environmentalism involves working to

influence attitudes and policies that
affect our environment
25