Preparing for Climate Change Impacts

on the Northwest Atlantic Marine Ecosystem

Hosted by

University of Maine School of Law

and
Gulf of Maine Research Institute

26-27 April 2007

Portland, ME
 Why We’re Here/What we’re Doing

Societal Relevance

Everyone Participates

Panels provide a necessary (minimal) degree of background (90 mins)

Dealing with uncertainty as we try to develop intelligent and flexible

approaches to public policy (should P≤0.05?)

Develop active connections among our disciplines and as individuals ~

research and public service

Follow-ups
Marine Panel:

Lew InczeClimate Change Background

Andy Pershing GoM Pelagic Ecosystems

Kevin Friedland Fisheries Populations

 England
Gld./100 kg
Italy
15

12

9
Holland
6
France

1 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900

Year

From H.H. Lamb (1995)

Climate, History and the Modern World
 Temperature (˚C) Relative to Present

Last Major Holocene Temperature Maximum

Glaciation Medieval Warm Period
(~100,000 yrs)
~800-1300 AD

Little Ice Age

~1650-1850 AD

Thousands of years BP)

Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vo. 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley,
Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record
 Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

8000

7000
Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)

6000

Average Global Temp. (˚C)

5000

4000

3000
22

2000

17
1000

0 12
540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 mya
ice cap during
Late Ordovician
 Eccentricity of the Earth’s elliptical orbit xes
no
qui
hee
of t
s ion
re ces
P

Variations in solar output Wobble ±1.5˚ in the Earth’s

axis of rotation relative to the
orbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean

Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds,

ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture

Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust)

Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane)

Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects

 Eccentricity of the Earth’s elliptical orbit xes
no
qui
hee
of t
s ion
re ces
P

Variations in solar output Wobble ±1.5˚ in the Earth’s

axis of rotation relative to the
orbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean

Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds,

ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture

Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust)

Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane)

Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects

IPCC SRES emissions scenarios

HIGHER
A1FI

End-of-
century
emissions
range from
1x to 5x
1990 levels

LOWER
B1
 Temperature

HadCM3
Projected Change in Annual
Temperature for 2071-2100
relative to 1961-1990
Comparison of Annual mean SST at Boothbay Harbor and Prince 5, 1924-2000.
BBH at 43.84 N, 69.64 W; P5 at 44.947 N, 66.812 W

Annual SST

Warm, moist
12.0
Dry, cold
10.0

8.0
BBH
deg C

6.0
Prince 5
4.0
n=32, BBH=1.28 * P5, r2 = 0.72
2.0

0.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
 Boothbay Harbor Monthly SST Anomaly (°C) 1905 – 2004
Anomaly = deviation from 20th century mean, 1905-1999

1
4
2
3
3

4 2

5 1
6
Month

0
7

8 ­1

9 ­2
10
­3
11
­4
12

05 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 04
Year: 1905 - 2004
• Temperature is important but not enough
• Stratification/Vertical Mixing [f (T,S, Wind)]
• Length of Stratified Season
• Salinity and Nutrients of Source waters (remote
influences)

IMPACTS:
• Temperature (north-south shifts in domains/species)
• Increased uncertainty and perhaps lower production
during faunal transitions
• Lots of uncertainty from food web perspective beginning
at primary producers
Available for download at:
http://www.climatechoices.org

UCS NECIA release—June 2007

 Northeastern Temperatures
temperature change ( F) (annual averages--GFDL, HADCM3 and PCM)

12
Higher: 6.5-12.5oF
observations
o

10
higher emissions
8
lower emissions
6 Lower: 3.5-6.5oF

-2 2oF warming since

1970
-4
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Source: NECIA / UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
 Nesting HOPS in a
Coarse-Resolution
Synoptic Estimate of Surface Salinity Climate PCM
OA “synoptic” climatology Add Maine Coastal Current A.R. Robinson, P.J.
Haley, Jr., W.G. Leslie

Dynamically adjusted fields

for September 2000

OA slope water climatology Resulting synoptic estimate

 Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

8000

7000
Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)

6000

Average Global Temp. (˚C)

5000

4000

3000
22

2000

17
1000

0 12
540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 mya
Why the debate/uncertainty?

No one would guarantee the future

Science has a very high threshold for acceptance

Science embraces debate over the details

It’s complicated

From a policy standpoint:

If the risks are significant, full understanding is hard to come by/long into the future,
and the potential (but displaced) costs of inaction approach or exceed the costs of
action, are there better decisions than just denial?

Has ideology overtaken other forms of debate and deliberation?

Should a precautionary policy await the same threshold for acceptance as a

scientific hypothesis?

Are there collateral benefits to potential actions, such as energy security, profits from
innovation, human health, land use and living patterns, better uses for wealth, etc.?
 Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

>10 x present

540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 my

 Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 my

 Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

>10 x present

540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 my

 Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 my

Major tectonic uplift, major erosion (SiO2?), CO2

drawdown, “African” glaciation, global cooling, mass extinctions

--what did the meriodonal circulation look like??

ice cap during
Late Ordovician
Ice Cap
(1) Astronomical Causes
•11 year and 206 year cycles: Cycles of solar variability ( sunspot activity )
•21,000 year cycle: Earth's combined tilt and elliptical orbit around the Sun ( precession of the equinoxes )
•41,000 year cycle: Cycle of the +/- 1.5° wobble in Earth's orbit ( tilt )
•100,000 year cycle: Variations in the shape of Earth's elliptical orbit ( cycle of eccentricity )

(2) Atmospheric Causes

•Heat retention: Due to atmospheric gases, mostly gaseous water vapor (not droplets), also carbon dioxide, methane,
and a few other miscellaneous gases-- the "greenhouse effect"
•Solar reflectivity: Due to white clouds, volcanic dust, polar ice caps

(3) Tectonic Causes

•Landmass distribution: Shifting continents (continental drift) causing changes in circulatory patterns of ocean
currents. It seems that whenever there is a large land mass at one of the Earth's poles, either the north pole or south
pole, there are ice ages.
•Undersea ridge activity: "Sea floor spreading" (associated with continental drift) causing variations in ocean
displacement.
 Eccentricity of the Earth’s elliptical orbit xes
no
qui
hee
of t
s ion
re ces
P

Variations in solar output Wobble ±1.5˚ in the Earth’s

axis of rotation relative to the
orbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean

Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds,

ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture

Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust)

Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane)

Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects

 (July 1)

Milankovitch model predictions, from Quinn et al. (1991). Glacial/interglacials from Lisiecki and Raymo (2005).
Image by R.A. Rohde.
 Temperature (˚C) Relative to Present

Last Major Holocene Temperature Maximum

Glaciation Medieval Warm Period
(~100,000 yrs)
~800-1300 AD

Little Ice Age

~1650-1850 AD

Thousands of years BP)

Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vo. 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley,
Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record
Available for download at:
http://www.climatechoices.org

UCS NECIA release—June 2007

1. IPCC SRES emissions scenarios

HIGHER
A1FI

End-of-
century
emissions
range from
1x to 5x
1990 levels

LOWER
B1
 Natural Forcing Natural (solar + volcanic) forcing
alone does not account for
warming in the past 50 years.

Human influences
alone (greenhouse
gases & aerosols)
Anthropogenic Forcing Only
brings models &
observations into good
agreement over last 30
yrs.

Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing

U.K. Met Office HadCM3

model (2001)
 Temperature

High Emission

HadCM3
Projected Change in Annual
Temperature for 2071-2100
relative to 1961-1990
AOGCM Statistical Downscaling &
output Regional-Scale Models
 Northeastern Temperatures
temperature change ( F) (annual averages--GFDL, HADCM3 and PCM)

12
Higher: 6.5-12.5oF
observations
o

10
higher emissions
8
lower emissions
6 Lower: 3.5-6.5oF

-2 2oF warming since

1970
-4
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Source: NECIA / UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Summer heat index
How hot will summers “feel” in
New Hampshire

Source: NECIA / UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

 Average area with >trace of snow for ≥30 d/winter

(high emissions scenario)

Goes from 10-45 d/winter

to 5-10 d/winter

Source: NECIA / UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

PCM: Red “X” = No Data; Green = Data SS: (gray polygons) = BIO db
 Nesting HOPS in a
Coarse-Resolution
Synoptic Estimate of Surface Salinity Climate PCM
OA “synoptic” climatology Add Maine Coastal Current A.R. Robinson, P.J.
Haley, Jr., W.G. Leslie

Dynamically adjusted fields

for September 2000

OA slope water climatology Resulting synoptic estimate Report, May 2007