Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Reduced
Positions
Fire Sale
Initial Funding
Initial Losses Falling Prices
Losses Problems
Higher Margins
Losses on
Existing Assets
A “Global Saving Glut”
The best
of times
Capital Inflows
Easy Escalating
Money House Prices
Policy
Eager Home
Ambitious Buyers
Mortgage Brokers
Developer Clout
Innovative
Banks
Securitization Rating
Gov’t Sponsored MBSs Agencies
Bank Regulators
Enterprises
The best
of times
Capital
Inflows
Easy Escalating
Money House Prices
Policy
Eager Home
Ambitious Buyers
Mortgage Brokers
Developer Clout
Innovative
Banks
Securitization Rating
Gov’t Sponsored
Bank Regulators Enterprises MBSs Agencies
Underlying Innovations
• Securitization
• SIVs (Structured Investment Vehicles)
• Ratings bias
• ARMs, teaser rates, no-doc loans, NINJA loans
Episodes
• American Home Loan, PNB Paribus hedge fund failures
TED rate jump ECB, Fed Injections (TAF)
• Monoline insurers (of MBSs) downgrade
Impact on money market funds
• Carlyle failure run on Bear (March 2008)
Fed backed JP Morgan takeover/TSLF for investmt banks
• September 2008: Lehman, Merrill, AIG TARP
Responses Lender of Last Resort / Spender of Last Resort
• Tax Rebate $124 bil.
• Fed Fund Rate Cuts
• Fannie/Freddie $200 bil.
• Bear-Stearns $29 bil.
• AIG $174 bil.
Fed “Facilities”
• Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) $58 bil.
• Treasury Security Loan Facility (TSLF) $133 bil.
• Term Auction Facility (TAF) $416 bil.
• Asset- Backed Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) $1,777 bil.
• Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF) $540 bil.
• More Fed Fund Rate Cuts … Hold At ~0%
• Fed Purchases of Long-Term Securities: GSEs & MBSs $600 bil.
• Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) $200 bil.
• Emergency Economic Stabilization Act/TARP $700 bil.
Government Loans
Government Equity
• Stimulus Package $787 bil.
aka The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
• TARP II
• Stress Tests
Money Growth (M2 Annual Rate) and the Business Cycle
in the United States 1950–2011
Monetary Theory ties changes in the money supply to
changes in aggregate economic activity and the price level
Money Growth (M2 Annual Rate) and Interest Rates
(Long-Term U.S. Treasury Bonds), 1950–2011
• Prior to 1980, the rate of money growth and the interest rate
on long-term Treasury bonds were closely tied
• Since then, the relationship is less clear but the rate of
money growth is still an important determinant of interest
rates
Aggregate Price Level and the Money Supply in the
United States, 1950–2011
Average Inflation Rate Versus Average Rate of
Money Growth for Selected Countries, 2000-2010