5.

3 Conditional Probability and Independence

Objectives
SWBAT:
• CALCULATE and INTERPRET conditional probabilities.
• USE the general multiplication rule to CALCULATE probabilities.
• USE tree diagrams to MODEL a chance process and CALCULATE probabilities involving two or
more events.
• DETERMINE if two events are independent.
• When appropriate, USE the multiplication rule for independent events to COMPUTE
probabilities.
In 2012, fans at Arizona Diamondbacks home games would win 3 free tacos from Taco Bell if
the Diamondbacks scored 6 or more runs. In the 2012 season, the Diamondbacks won 41 of
their 81 home games and gave away free tacos in 30 of their 81 home games. In 26 of the
games, the Diamondbacks won and gave away free tacos. Let W=win and T=free tacos.
Choose a Diamondbacks home game at random.
a) Summarize these data in a two-way table.
b) Find the probability that the Dbacks win or
there are free tacos.

c) Find the probability that the Dbacks win, given that there are free tacos.

d) Find the probability that there are free tacos, given that the Dbacks win.
e) What is conditional probability? Is there a formula? Is it on the formula sheet?

The probability that one event happens given that another event is
already known to have happened is called a conditional
probability.
On the formula sheet:
Suppose we know that event A has happened. Then the
probability that event B happens given that event A has happened
is denoted by P(B | A).

Read | as “given that” or

“under the condition
that”
We take the probability of both
events occurring and divide it by
Let’s go back to the previous example the probability of the given event
and look how we can apply the occurring.
formula.
c) Find the probability that the Dbacks win, given that there are free tacos.

d) Find the probability that there are free tacos, given that the Dbacks win.
Shannon hits the snooze bar on her alarm clock on 60% of school days. If she doesn’t hit the
snooze bar, there is a 0.90 probability that she makes it to class on time. However, if she hits
the snooze bar, there is only a 0.70 probability that she makes it to class on time.
a) Use a tree diagram to represent this situation.
Probabilities

0.60(0.70)=0.42

0.60(0.30)=0.18

0.40(0.90)=0.36

0.40(0.10)=0.04

b) On a randomly chosen day, what is the probability that Shannon is late for class?
P(L)= 0.18 + 0.04 = 0.22
c) Suppose that Shannon is late for school. What is the probability that she hit the snooze bar that morning?
What is the general multiplication rule? Is it on the formula sheet?
General Multiplication Rule
The probability that events A and B both occur can be found using the general multiplication rule
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B | A)
where P(B | A) is the conditional probability that event B occurs given that event A has already
occurred.

These end probabilities were all

examples of the general
multiplication rule. For example,
the 0.42 comes from the
probability of hitting snooze
multiplied by the probability of
being on time given Shannon hit
Note: this is not on the formula sheet. snooze.
When is it better to use a tree diagram than a two-way table?
• Using a tree diagram is better when the chance process involves a sequence of outcomes.
• Two-way tables do not display sequences.
Many employers require prospective employees to take a drug test. A positive result on this
test indicates that the prospective employee uses illegal drugs. However, not all people who
test positive actually use drugs. Suppose that 4% of prospective employees use drugs, the
false positive rate is 5%, and the false negative rate is 10%.
a) What percent of prospective
employees will test positive?
P(test positive)=.036+.048= .084

b) What percent of prospective

employees who test positive
actually use illegal drugs?
How can you tell if two events are independent?
When knowledge that one event has happened does not change the likelihood that another event
will happen, we say that the two events are independent.

Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one event does not change the
probability that the other event will happen. In other words, events A and B are independent if
P(A | B) = P(A) and P(B | A) = P(B).

For example, if a coin is tossed twice in succession, the probability of obtaining a head on
the second toss is not in any way influenced by the outcome of the first toss. Therefore, the
two tosses are independent of each other.
P (A) = P (A | B) = P (A | not B)
Using the coin example, the probability of getting heads on the second toss
= the probability of getting heads on the second toss given the first toss came up heads
= the probability of getting heads on the second toss given the first toss came up tails
In the Diamondbacks example, are the events Taco and Win independent?
To check whether two events are independent, we need to check
whether knowing the team won the game changes the probability
that the fans were given free tacos.
In other words, were fans more likely to get free tacos if the
team won (not independent events) or is the likelihood of fans
getting free tacos the same whether or not the team wins
(independent events)?

Clearly Diamondbacks fans are

more likely to get free tacos if
the Diamondbacks win than if
they lose, so the events taco and
win are NOT independent.
What is the multiplication rule for independent events? Is it on the formula sheet? How is it
related to the general multiplication rule?

When events A and B are independent, we can simplify the general multiplication rule since
P(B| A) = P(B).

Multiplication rule for independent events

If A and B are independent events, then the probability that A and B both occur is
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B)

This is not on the formula sheet.

Example: The new electronic cat toy requires two working AA batteries to operate. You go into your battery
drawer and take the only two AA batteries in there. The probability that the first battery works is 0.95 and
the probability that the second battery works is 0.92. What is the probability that you place both of these
batteries in and the cat toy is operational?
• It is safe to assume the two batteries are independent of each other. Therefore, we want to find:
𝑃(first working ∩ second working)
This is 𝑃 first working ⋅ 𝑃 second working = 0.95 ⋅ 0.92 = 0.874
What is the difference between mutually exclusive and independent?
• Two events are mutually exclusive if they have no outcomes in common.
• Example: The probability of selecting one LHS student and having that student be both a
sophomore and a senior.
• Being independent means that one event occurring will not change the likelihood of another
event occurring.
• Example: If a stadium is handing out free cats to all patrons entering, then free cats and
win would be independent because the outcome of the game will not effect whether or
not a patron gets a free cat.

• Mutually exclusive events can never be independent, because if one event happens, the
other is guaranteed not to happen.
• Clearly these events are mutually exclusive.
• If we now that A occurred, does that change the
probability that B occurs?
• Yes! P(B) would then be 0.
• 𝑃 pregnant male ≠ 𝑃(pregnant)
The First Trimester Screen is a non-invasive test given during the first trimester of pregnancy to
determine if there are specific chromosomal abnormalities in the fetus. According to a study
published in the New England Journal of Medicine in November 2005, approximately 5% of
normal pregnancies will receive a false positive result. Among 100 women with normal
pregnancies, what is the probability that there will be at least one false positive?
• It is reasonable to assume that the test results for different women are independent.
• In order to find the probability of at least one false positive, it would probably be easiest to
find the probability of no positive results at all. Then, the probability of at least one false
positive would be the complement of this event:
• P(at least one positive) = 1 – P(no positive results)
• This works because “at least one false positive” would include anywhere between 1-100 false
positives. The only other possibility is no false positives, which is the complement event.
• For women with normal pregnancies, the probability that a single test is negative is 1 – 0.05 =
0.95.
• The probability that all 100 women will get negative results is (0.95)(0.95) (0.95) = (0.95)100 =
0.0059.
• Thus, P(at least one positive) = 1 – 0.0059 = 0.9941. There is over a 99% probability that at
least 1 of the 100 women with normal pregnancies will receive a false positive on the First
Trimester Screen.
On a recent day, the Carucci Daily Cat forecast a 50% chance of rain in Lyndhurst
and a 50% chance of rain in North Arlington. What is the probability it will rain
in both locations?
Would it be appropriate to perform the calculation (0.5)(0.5) = 0.25, and state
that the probability that it will rain in both cities tomorrow is 0.25?
No. It is not appropriate to multiply the two probabilities, because the events
aren’t independent. If it is raining in one of these locations, there is a very high
probability that it is raining in the other location. However, suppose that there
was also a 50% chance of rain in Cupertino tomorrow. To find the probability
that it will rain in Cupertino and in Lyndhurst, it would be appropriate to
multiply the probabilities, because it is reasonable to believe that knowledge of
rain in Lyndhurst won’t help us predict rain in Cupertino.
Super Happy Cat Time!!!