1-Introduction To Population Studies

COLLEGE OF MEDICINE AND HEALTH SCIENCES
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH

POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY
MEKONNEN M.(BSC, MPH)
Introduction to Demography
Objectives of this Lecture:
2 Differentiate between Demographic Methods and
Population Studies
 Identify the different sources of demographic data
 Describe the advantages and disadvantages of each dat

sources
 Define and calculate measures of fertility, mortality and

migration based on demographic data
12/5/2018
Demography
3  Demography originates from 2 Greek words (demos=peop
graphein=to draw)
 Demography is the scientific study of human populations primar

with respect to their;
 size,
 distribution,
 Structure/composition, and
 their change (UN Multilingual demographic dictionary)

Dbre Markos University 12/5/2018
Demography …
4
 Demography—The study of a population in its static and dynamic

aspects.
 Static aspects include characteristics at a point in time such as

composition by:
 Age
 Sex
 Race
 Marital status
 Economic characteristics
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Demography ….
5
 Dynamic aspects are the movement of population
 Fertility
 Mortality
 Nuptiality/marriage
 Migration
 Growth

Demography …
6
 Demographic analysis - is the study of components of
variation and change in demographic variables and the
relationships between them;
 This is also called formal demography or demographic
methods or technical demography.

Demography …
7
 Population Studies- is the study of the relationships between

demographic variables and other variables such as social(e.g
education& housing) and economic variables(e.g occupation
&income).
 Population studies is the broader aspect of demography. It combines

both formal and substantive demography. Population studies =
Technical demography + Substantive demography
 Population studies is at least as broad as interest in the determinants

and consequences of populationDebre Markos University
trends. 12/5/2018
Demography …
8
 Demography focuses its attention on three readily available human

phenomena:
o Changes in population size (growth or decline),
o Population composition and
o Population distribution
 It deals with major “demographic processes” namely fertility,

mortality and migration.
o These processes are continually at work within a population

determining its size, composition and distribution.
9
What are Demographic Data?

Purposes of Demographic Data
10
 Provide factual basis for decisions on matters of public

policy and action concerning social and economic affairs.
 Indicate present and future requirements of the population in

terms of the types and extent of social needs of the society
such as health, education and employment.

Purpose…
11
 Generally; the information obtained from these sources

is used for
 healthplanning,
 programming and
 evaluation of health services

Sources of demographic data
12
 Conventional sources:
o Censuses
o Civil registration/vital registration
o Surveys
 Non-conventional sources
o Population registers: records of the movement of people
o Administrative records: like school enrollments, health
service statistics, etc.
o Parish registers: registration of baptism and burials in
religious holy places, etc
12/5/2018
Census
13
 Census—the total process of collecting, compiling,

analyzing and publishing or otherwise disseminating
demographic, economic and social data pertaining to all
persons in a country or in a well-delineated part of a
country at a specified time (UN).
 It is the enumeration or complete population count at a

point in time within a specified geographical area.
Census…
14
 Census data are necessary for

 accurate description of population’s health status and
 are principal source of denominator for rates of disease

& death.
 It provides information on:
 Size and composition of a population
 The trends anticipated in the future

Essential Characteristics of census
15
 Universality within a defined territory
 Defined periodicity
 Simultaneity (data is collected at a specified time from the
entire population)
 Individual enumeration
Census cont…
16
Advantages of census
• Provides frame for later sample surveys
• Provides population denominators
• different health indices could be calculated like;

 Crude birth rate,
 crude death rate,
 age specific mortality rate and
 sex specific mortality rate are some of the examples of
the indicators that could be calculated

Census…
17
Disadvantages of census
 Size limits content and quality control efforts
 Cost limits frequency(conducting nationwide census

is very expensive
 it generates a large amount of data which takes a
very long time to compile and analyze.
 It is carried in intervals of many years. Therefore it
can’t assess yearly changes

Census…
18
 In Ethiopia census was conducted four times , i.e., in

1984 , 1994 (G.C).
 Data was collected on:
 Age, sex and size of the population
 Mortality, fertility
 Language, ethnicity
 Housing Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

Contents of Census
19
 A census contains:
 Demographic data (at least age and sex)
 Economic data (e.g., occupation and income)
 Social (e.g., education and housing)

Types of census
20
 A census can be:

1). De jure: Legal or customary attachment to an area (you
are registered where you usually reside).
Excludes temporary visits
Advantages
• Gives permanent picture of a community;
• Provides more realistic and useful statistics

Types…
21
Disadvantages
• Omission from the count (zig bet binor)
• Missing temporary residents
• Counting twice/double counting

Types…
22
2). De facto: Physical residence (you are registered where

you are currently staying/residing at the time of the census)
 Excludes those temporarily away
Advantages
• Less chance for omission
• No double counting
Disadvantages
• Difficulty to obtain information regarding persons in
transit
• Provision of incorrect picture of University
Debre Markos the population
12/5/2018
Steps in Conducting Census
23
 The major steps of a census include:
 Planning and preparation
 Collecting data
 Compilation and analysis
 Evaluation

Data Collection Procedures
24
 Establish administrative tree

 Develop questionnaire(s)
 Cartography
 Define enumeration areas
 Pretest enumeration processes
 Design data processing system
 Enumeration
 Publications
 Dissemination of results
Civil Registration
25
 It is the continuous registration of vital events such as

 birth,
 death,
 marriage and
 divorce as they happen.

Civil Registration…
26
 Data collection procedures:
• Active: enumerators visit every household
• Passive: informants report to registrars
*Informants can be health facilities or family members

27
 Purpose
 Primarily administrative, but has legal and statistical use
 To collect data on the vital events happening in a population

(generally concerned with live births, deaths, marriages and
divorces)
 Help to understand demographic characteristics of different

populations at different points in time

28
 Essential characteristics
 Universality
 Continuity
 Contents include:
 Live birth
 Death
 Divorce
 Marriage
Live birth registration
29
 Live birth—Complete expulsion or extraction from its

mother of a product of conception, irrespective of the
duration of pregnancy, which after such separation, breathes
or shows any other evidence of life such as beating of the
heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord or definite movement
of voluntary muscles, whether or not the umbilical cord has
been cut or the placenta is attached; each product of such a
birth is considered live born.

Live birth …
30
 All live-born infants should be registered and counted

irrespective of gestational age or whether alive or dead at
time of registration and if they die at any time following
birth they should also be registered and counted as deaths
(WHO).

Live Birth Registration
(UN minimum data recommendation)
Data on Event Data on infant:
• Date of occurrence
• Sex
• Legitimacy status
• Date of registration
• Weight at birth
• Place of occurrence Data on mother:
• Type of birth/delivery • Age or date of birth
• Attendance at birth • Number of previous
children born alive
12/5/2018 • Date of marriage
31 or
32

33

34

Death Registration
35
 Death-permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any

time after live birth has taken place (post-natal cessation of
vital functions without capability of resuscitation).
 This definition excludes fetal deaths.

Death Registration
(UN minimum data recommendation)
Data on event Data on deceased:
• Date of occurrence o Age or date of birth

• Date of registration o Sex
• Place of occurrence
• Cause of death o Marital status
• Certifier o Occupation
o Place of usual
residence
12/5/2018 36
Problems with Cause of Death Data
37
 Knowledge of certifier
 Certifier may never see deceased
 Heart versus brain function loss in the definition of death
 Multiple and contributory causes of death
 Medical classification changes over time by WHO and ICD-

now at version 10

Marriage Registration
38
 Marriage—an act, ceremony or process by which the legal

relationship of husband and wife is constituted.
 The legality of the union may be established by civil,

religious or other means as recognized by the laws of each
country
 There are civil, religious and traditional marriages in

Ethiopia
Marriage Registration
(UN Recommended Minimum data)
Data on event Data on bride and groom
 Date of occurrence  Age or date of birth
 Date of registration
 Previous marital status
 Place of occurrence
 Type of marriage—
civil, religious,  Place of usual residence
customary
12/5/2018 39
Divorce Registration
40
 Divorce—final legal dissolution of a marriage, that is,

separation of husband and wife which confers on the
parties the right to remarriage under civil, religious and/or
other provisions, according to the laws of each country.

41
Advantages
 Continuous monitoring of vital rates
 May provide both numerator and denominator for some

rates (e.g., infant mortality rate)
 Small area data available
 Base for testing the accuracy of censuses and surveys

42
Disadvantages
 Uncertain coverage: difficult to ensure registration of all
the events
 Limited background information
 Time reference often inconsistent with denominator

definition
 Information may come from third party
 Easily disrupted by political or economic events
 Literacy or numeracy
 Costly
Sample Surveys
43
 It is carried out in a scientifically selected area which covers

only a section or portion (sample) of the population under
consideration.
 Purpose
• Obtain information from a sample representative of some
population
• Limited in scope but gives detailed insight on a specific
issue
 Content
• Varies widely e.g., fertility, child mortality, migration,, etc
• E.g. DHS,Welfare Monitoring Survey, etc
Essential Characteristics
44
 Representative sample of some population
 Smaller size than census allows collection of more in-depth

information on specific issues that can then be generalized
12/5/2018
Types of Surveys
45
 Single-round retrospective/Cross-sectional
 Census-type household surveys
 Focused, (e.g., Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (CPS))
 Birth/Maternity History (World Fertility Survey (WFS),

Demographic and Health Survey (DHS))
 Health monitoring
12/5/2018
Types of Surveys
46
 Multi-round follow-up (prospective). e.g. Demographic

Surveillance Systems (DSS) - BRHP (Butajira Rural Health
Program)
 Baseline census
 Periodic visits to record vital events
 Periodic censuses (3-5 years) to update population

characteristics/Annual reconciliation
12/5/2018
Advantages of sample survey
47
 Single-round retrospective
– can be quick
– relatively inexpensive
– flexible
– can include detailed data (maternity history in DHS)
– needs little continuity effort
 Multi-round prospective
– some control on coverage and content errors e.g. if age is
missing in one round
– follow-up allows controlDebre
forMarkos
sampling
University distortion
12/5/2018
Disadvantages of sample survey
48
 Single-round retrospective
– coverage and content errors
– misses certain types of events e.g. illegal abortion
 Multi-round prospective
– slow
– needs continuity of effort over (extended) time
– high cost

Tools of demographic Change
49
 Absolute number
 Rate,
 Ratio and Probability

Tools of demographic Change…
50
1. Absolute numbers
 Simple count of affected individuals without stating
the size of a source population
 Useful for public health planners for proper allocation
of health care resources
 Can not be used for comparison

Example: Hypothetical data in the frequency of hepatitis in two
cities:
51
For which city you will give priority of intervention ?

City A?
City B?
= unknown b/c no denominator/ source population
Ratios
52
 Ratio is value obtained by dividing one quantity by another
 It indicates the relative magnitude of a numerator and a

denominator
 Ratios tend to be descriptive statistics
 A proportion is a special type of ratio in which the

denominator includes the numerator
 A percentage is a special type of proportion, whereby the

Ratio: Examples
53
 Sex ratio at birth (male births per 100 female births)
 Child-woman ratio (number of children aged 0 to 4 years

divided by the number of women aged 15 to 49 years)
 Dependency ratio (population aged under 15 or over 64

divided by the population Debre
aged 15 to 64 and multiplied by
Markos University 12/5/2018
Rate
54
 It is measure of the frequency with which an event occurs

in a defined population during a given length of time.
 It is a statement of the risk of developing a condition.
 It indicates the change in some event that takes place in a

population over a period of time.
 It is defined per unit of time.

Rate …
55
Rate = Vital event X (K)

Population at risk
 A rate comprises the following elements:
• Numerator: count of events that occur during a period
• Denominator: midpoint population, or person-years, or

other person-time units of exposure for the same period
as the numerator
• Time specification and
• Multiplier or constant, i.e., K (100, 1000, 10000, 100,000

etc)
 A Rate is a ratio or a proportion in which the numerator is
Rate: Examples
56

Probability
57
 It indicates the likelihood that some event will (or will not)
occur to some group of exposed persons during the course
of some period of time
 It expresses the chance that an event will occur during a

particular period to a person in a particular population at
risk at the beginning of a period

Probability: Examples
58
 Probability of dying between birth and age five
• Probability that a child will die between birth and exact

age five
 Probability of surviving from age 20 to age 25
• Probability that a person of exact age 20 will survive to

exact age 25

59

Population composition
60
It includes:  Marital Status,
 Age,  Religion,
 Sex,  Language,
 Race,  Education,
 Ethnicity,  Economic Status
 Nationality,  Etc

Age and sex
61
 Age and sex are the most basic characteristics of a

population.
 Every population has a different age and sex composition
 the number and proportion of males and females in each

age group and
 this structure can have considerable impact on the

population’s social and economic situation, both present
and future.
Sex
62
 Importance
 Variable is of prime importance
 Separate data for males and females are important:

• In themselves
• For the analysis of other types of data
• For the evaluation of the completeness and accuracy of
population counts
Sex …
63

Sex …
64

Age
65
 Demographers 'definition of age: Completed age, i.e. age of

an individual at last birthday
 Most important variable in demographic analyses
 Data Collection on Age
 Data on age may be secured by
• Asking a direct question on age
• Asking a question on date of birth, or month and year
of birth, or
• A combination of these

Age-Reporting Errors
66
 Centenarians
• Those close to 100 years tend to overestimate
their age
 Understatement
• Women tend to understate their age
 Overstatement
• Mothers tend to round up the age of their

children
 Heaping/Digit preference
Population Pyramid of Ethiopia: 2007
67

Race and Ethnicity
68
 Race, ethnicity, language group and national heritage are

often used for analyses of population groups.
 These data may reveal much about a population’s origins

and are often used in the administration of government
programs.

Summary
69
 Several characteristics are commonly used by

demographers to describe a population.
 Education and economic participation are two

characteristics often used
 These characteristics are often cross-tabulated by other

demographic and economic characteristics to measure
different aspects of sub-groups of the population
70
Thank You

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COLLEGE OF MEDICINE AND HEALTH SCIENCES

DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH

 Identify the different sources of demographic data

 Describe the advantages and disadvantages of each dat

 Define and calculate measures of fertility, mortality and

 Demography is the scientific study of human populations primar

 their change (UN Multilingual demographic dictionary)

 Demography—The study of a population in its static and dynamic

 Static aspects include characteristics at a point in time such as

 Dynamic aspects are the movement of population

Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

 Demographic analysis - is the study of components of

variation and change in demographic variables and the

relationships between them;

 This is also called formal demography or demographic

methods or technical demography.

Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

 Population Studies- is the study of the relationships between

 Population studies is the broader aspect of demography. It combines

 Population studies is at least as broad as interest in the determinants

 Demography focuses its attention on three readily available human

o Changes in population size (growth or decline),

o Population composition and

 It deals with major “demographic processes” namely fertility,

o These processes are continually at work within a population

What are Demographic Data?

Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

 Provide factual basis for decisions on matters of public

 Indicate present and future requirements of the population in

Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

 Generally; the information obtained from these sources

Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

 Census—the total process of collecting, compiling,

 It is the enumeration or complete population count at a

 Census data are necessary for

 are principal source of denominator for rates of disease

 The trends anticipated in the future

Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

 Universality within a defined territory

 Simultaneity (data is collected at a specified time from the

• Provides population denominators

• different health indices could be calculated like;

Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

 Cost limits frequency(conducting nationwide census

Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

 In Ethiopia census was conducted four times , i.e., in

 Data was collected on:

 Age, sex and size of the population

 Housing Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

 Demographic data (at least age and sex)

 Economic data (e.g., occupation and income)

 Social (e.g., education and housing)

Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

 A census can be:

• Gives permanent picture of a community;

• Provides more realistic and useful statistics

Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

• Omission from the count (zig bet binor)

• Missing temporary residents

• Counting twice/double counting

Debre Markos University 12/5/2018

2). De facto: Physical residence (you are registered where

 The major steps of a census include: