CONDITIONAL

PROBABILITY Objectives:
Illustrate conditional probability
Solve problems involving conditional probability
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The conditional probability of an event B in relationship
to an event A is the probability that event B occurs given
that event A has already occurred.
• The probability that event B occurs, given that event A
has already occurred is P(B|A).
• The order is very important do not think that
P(A|B)=P(B|A)! THEY ARE DIFFERENT.
EXAMPLE: what is the probability that a chosen person
win gold medal in a 100 person race given that he/she is
on the top 3
Conditional Probability
•Def. The conditional probability of E
given F is the probability that an
event E, will occur given that
another event F, has occurred
P( E  F ) if P( F )  0
P( E | F ) 
P( F )
given
examples
•Probability that a train arrives on time given
that it left on time.
•Probability that a PC crashes given the
operating system installed.
•Probability that a website is visited given its
number of in links.
•Probability that is choses male given that it
choses to drink diet soda.
Two-Way or ContingencyTables: A table listing two or more
characteristics of a group. With tables, you have to cover up the
areas that are not true (from what was given – already true) and
then figure out the total possible and the event occurrences. In
the examples below, we will use the table below listing
employees years of service:
1. What is the probability of randomly
selecting a female employee?
2. What is the probability of randomly
selecting a 0- 4 years old?
3. what is the probability of selecting a
male employee?
4. What is the probability of male and 0-4
years in service?
Conditional Probability
•Def. The conditional probability of E given F is
the probability that an event E, will occur given
that another event F, has occurred

P( E  F ) if P( F )  0
P( E | F ) 
P( F )
given
 Let us talk about conditional probability

1. what is the probability that they have less

than 4 years of experience, given that the
employee is male?
2. Given that the employee has between 10
and 14 years of experience, what is the
probability that the employee is female?
3. what is the probability that the employee is
male Given that the employee has more than
14 years of experience, ?
4. What is the probability of randomly selected
an employee with less than 14 years of
experience given that they are female?
A sample of 150 plastic panels was selected and tested
for shock resistance and scratch resistance. The results
are summarized in the table below.

Calculate:
1. P(E|F) 2.P(F|E)
Conditional Probability
Determine the conditional probability for each of the following:
a) Given P(B and A) = 0.725 and P(B) = 0.78, find P(A|B).
P(B and A) P(A|B) = 0.9295
P(A | B) 
P(B)
0.725
P( A | B) 
0.78

a) Given P(blonde and tall) = 0.5 and P(blonde) = 0.73,

find P(A|B).
P(B and A)
P(A | B) 
P(B)
0.5 P(A|B) = 0.6849
P(A | B) 
0.73
QUIZ

1. What is the probability that a randomly selected

dog is a Basset Hound, given it is a female?
2. What is the probability that a randomly selected
dog is Male, given it is a boxer?
3. What is the probability that a
randomly selected dog is boxer given
that it is a male?
4. What is the probability that a
randomly selected dog is Female given
it is a basset hound?
5. What is the probability that a
randomly selected dog is Female given
it is a Boxer?