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unemployment.
Price-level stability
Instruments:
Monetary Policy – controlling money supply to
determine interest rates
Fiscal Policy – government expenditures; taxation
OBJECTIVES: OUTPUT
Quotas
Fiscal
Policy
Employment
Interaction of and
Aggregate Unemployment
Other
Supply &
Forces Demand
Price
Level & Prices and
Costs Aggregate inflation
Supply
Potential
Output
Total quantity of goods &
services that the nation’s Foreign
Capital, businesses willingly Trade...
Labor, produced and sell in a
Technology given period.
AGGREGATE DEMAND & SUPPLY CURVES
B C
200
Wartime Boom
Tight Money, 1979-1982
In every transaction,
the buyer’s expenditure
becomes the seller’s income.
Thus, the sum of all
expenditure equals
the sum of all income.
THE CIRCULAR FLOW
Income($)
Labor
Households Firms
Goods(bread)
Expenditure($)
CONSUMPTION (C)
% of
$ billions
GDP
Consumption $7,064.5 69.2%
Durables 858.3 8.4
Nondurables 2,055.1 20.1
Services 4,151.1 40.7
INVESTMENT (I)
def1: spending on [the factor of production] capital.
def2: spending on goods bought for future use.
Includes:
business fixed investment
spending on plant and equipment that firms will use
to produce other goods & services
residential fixed investment
spending on housing units by consumers and
landlords
inventory investment
the change in the value of all firms’ inventories
U.S. INVESTMENT, 2001
% of
$ billions
GDP
Investment $1,633.9 16.0%
Business fixed 1,246.0 12.2
Residential fixed 446.3 4.4
Inventory -58.4 -0.6
INVESTMENT VS. CAPITAL
More examples:
stock flow
a person’s wealth a person’s saving
# of people with # of new college
college degrees graduates
the govt. debt the govt. budget deficit
GOVERNMENT SPENDING (G)
G includes all government spending on goods
and services.
G excludes transfer payments
(e.g. unemployment insurance payments),
because they do not represent spending on
goods and services.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING, 2001
% of
$ billions
GDP
Gov spending $1,839.5 18.0%
Federal 615.7 6.0
Non-defense 216.6 2.1
Defense 399.0 3.9
State & local 1,223.8 12.0
NET EXPORTS (NX = EX - IM)
def: the value of total exports (EX)
minus the value of total imports (IM)
U.S. Net Exports, 1960-2000
50
-50
-100
$ billions
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
-400
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
AN IMPORTANT IDENTITY
Y = C + I + G + NX
where
Y = GDP = the value of total output
C + I + G + NX = aggregate expenditure
A QUESTION FOR YOU:
Suppose a firm
produces $10 million worth of final
goods
but only sells $9 million worth.
2002 2003
P Q P Q
good A $1 10 $2 15
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
NGDP (billions of $) RGDP (billions of 1996 $)
GDP DEFLATOR
The inflation rate is the percentage
increase in the overall level of prices.
One measure of the price level is
the GDP Deflator, defined as
Nominal GDP
GDP deflator = 100
Real GDP
UNDERSTANDING THE GDP DEFLATOR
Example with 3 goods
For good i = 1, 2, 3
Pit = the market price of good i in month t
Qit = the quantity of good i produced in month t
NGDPt = Nominal GDP in month t
RGDPt = Real GDP in month t
UNDERSTANDING THE GDP DEFLATOR
NGDPt P1t Q1t P2t Q2t P3t Q3t
GDP deflator 100 100
RGDPt RGDPt
Q1t Q2t Q3t
100 P1t P2t P3t
RGDPt RGDPt RGDPt
Medical care
Recreation
16.2%
Education
Communication
40.0%
Other goods and
services
UNDERSTANDING THE CPI
Example with 3 goods
For good i = 1, 2, 3
Ci = the amount of good i in the CPI’s basket
Pit = the price of good i in month t
Et = the cost of the CPI basket in month t
Eb = cost of the basket in the base period
UNDERSTANDING THE CPI
Et P1t C1 + P2t C2 + P3t C3
CPI in month t 100 100
Eb Eb
C1 C2 C3
100 P1t P2t P3t
Eb Eb Eb
14 CPI
12
10
6
GDP deflator
4
-2
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998
Year
MEASURING UNEMPLOYMENT:
CATEGORIES OF THE POPULATION
employed
working at a paid job
unemployed
not employed but looking for a job
labor
force
the amount of labor available for producing
goods and services; all employed plus
unemployed persons
notin the labor force
not employed, not looking for work.
TWO IMPORTANT LABOR FORCE CONCEPTS
unemployment rate
percentage of the labor force that is
unemployed
labor force participation rate
the fraction of the adult population
that ‘participates’ in the labor force
COMPUTE PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN LABOR
FORCE STATISTICS
Suppose
the population increases by 1%
the labor force increases by 3%
the number of unemployed persons
increases by 2%
2 1993
1975
0
-2 1982
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Change in
unemployment rate
END.