Professional Documents
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Rizaldi Boer
Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in
Southeast Asia and Pacific, Institut Pertanian Bogor
(CCROM SEAP IPB)
1991-2010
0.5°C
1960-1979
Estimating the magnitude of anthropogenic and natural contributions to global temperature
change from observations
Global warming relative to 1850-1900 (°C)
Global warming relative to 1850-1900 (°C)
Anthropogenic global warming has reached 1°C, with a likely range of 0.8 to 1.2°C, and is
increasing at 0.2°C per decade
Global warming relative to 1850-1900 (°C)
1.0°C
1.0°C
Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase
at the current rate
1.5°C
Quota emission for CO2 for
1.5oC?
Probability of not
770 Gt CO2e exceeding 1.5oC: 50%
Probability of not
570 Gt CO2e exceeding 1.5oC: 66%
Quota reduced by
Current rate of 100 Gt CO2 due to
emission: 42+3 Gt melting of
CO2e per year permaforst and
release of CH4
from wetland
700,000
2,000 500,000
400,000
1,500 300,000
200,000
1,000 100,000
0
500 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
-100,000
- Source:
NDCBoer
BaU et al,NDC
2017
CM1 NDC CM2 DD BaU* DD
BAU BAU CM1 CM2
Figure 2. Net emission of BAU and mitigation scenarios of the NDC and
2010 2030 DD
Highly insufficient
Insufficient
DD 2°C compatible
Source: Dewi et al, 2018 1.5°C Paris Agreement
compatible
17
Impacts of global warming 1.5°C as Compared
to• 2.0°C
Less extreme weather where people live, including extreme heat
• and rainfall
By 2100, global mean sea level rise will be around 10 cm lower but
may continue to rise for centuries
• 10 million fewer people exposed to risk of
• rising seas hundred million fewer people exposed to climate-
Up to several
related risk and susceptible to poverty by 2050
• Global population exposed to water shortages up to 50%
less
• Smaller reductions in yields of maize, rice,
wheat
• Lower impact on biodiversity and species
• Lower risk to fisheries & the livelihoods that depend on
them
SPM.2: How the level of global warming effects risks associated
with the reasons for concern (RFCs) and selected natural,
managed and human systems.
• RFC2 Extreme weather events: risks/impacts to human health, livelihoods, assets, and
ecosystems from extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy rain, drought and
associated wildfires, and coastal flooding.
• RFC4 Global aggregate impacts: global monetary damage, global scale degradation and
loss of ecosystems and biodiversity.
• RFC5 Large-scale singular events: are relatively large, abrupt and sometimes
irreversible changes in systems that are caused by global warming. Examples include
disintegration of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI)
vs. global mean warming (°C)
Reasons of
Concern
Knowledge
AR3 Today
2001
15.Oct.2010 Prof. Dr. Andreas Fischlin (IPCC Author) Environmental Systems Science, Systems Ecology ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI)
vs. global mean warming (°C)
Reasons of
Concern
Knowledge
AR5 Today
2007
15.Oct.2010 Prof. Dr. Andreas Fischlin (IPCC Author) Environmental Systems Science, Systems Ecology ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI)
vs. global mean warming (°C)
Reasons of
Concern
Knowledge
AR5 Today
2014
15.Oct.2010 Prof. Dr. Andreas Fischlin (IPCC Author) Environmental Systems Science, Systems Ecology ETH Zurich, Switzerland
How the level of global warming affects impacts and/or risks associated with Reasons for
Concern
How the level of global warming affects impacts and/or risks associated with
Reasons for Concern
Example 1: Coral Reefs
First back-to-back global mass bleaching and
mortality events (2016-2017; many authors
including Hughes et al 2017a,b; risks Frieler et
al, Donner et al irreversibility)
2 RCP6.9
Model mean global RCP4.5
temperature 1
change for low RCP2.6
emission scenario
RCP2.6 0
-1
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
RCP
4.5
RCP
8.5
Economic Implication of Climate Change in Indonesia (no mitigation
and adaptation efforts)
• Two types of impact are considered: Emission Scenario SRESA2
– Market impact (on the agriculture sector Market Market+NonMarket Market+NM+Catastropic
and coastal zones); and
0
– Non-market impact (on health and 1 climate impact in the near-term
ecosystems) ‘Look at
2
view, it may not yet be seen as a very
– Risk of catastrophic (only ice melting, 3
excluding flash flood and others extreme urgent 4and high priority issue, but this will
events) put us5 at risk of getting significant loss
• Mean loss of 1.8% of gross domestic product later and 6 may lead to mal-adaptation and
7
threaten food security and sustainable
(GDP) by 2100 on an annual basis, if market 8
impact only, it is well above the world’s 0.6% development’ (Boer et al., 2013)
9
• With non-market impact, the loss increased to 10
6% and with inclusion of catastrophic it 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
increased to 7%, well above the world 2.2 and
2.6% respectively
Using PAGE model
• Early investment for adaptation about 0.2% of (Source: Suplachalasai et al. 2009)
GDP could avoid damage amounting to 1.9% of
the GDP by 2100 on annual basis
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SDGs
• Close links to United Nations Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs)
• Mix of measures to adapt to climate change and
reduce emissions can have benefits for SDGs
• National and sub-national authorities, civil
society, the private sector, indigenous peoples
and local communities can support ambitious
• action
International cooperation is a critical part of
limiting warming to 1.5°C
12
Level of relation between Climate Actions
and SDGs (modified from Kainuma et al. 2017)
SYNERGY
Reduce poverty through
creation of jobs opportunities
based on SFM, alternative
livelihoods to reduce reliance
of forest contribute to
mitigation and reducing
vulnerability
TRADE OFF
SYNERGY End of hunger by increasing food
End of hunger by increasing food production expansion of
production expansion of agriculture land from forest
agriculture land using degraded conversion increase emission
land (agroforestry) reduce and increase vulnerability
vulnerability
Level of relation between Climate Actions
and SDGs (modified from Kainuma et al. 2017)
MULTIPLE SYNERGY
Increasing use of unproductive land
for development of agriculture
plantation
- Reduce emission
- Improve ES
- Increase income
- End of hunger
- Improve biodiversity
- Overall, they will reduce
vulnerability
Indicative linkages between mitigation options
and sustainable development using SDGs (the
linkages do not show costs and benefits)
Epilogue
• The increase of global mean temperature from pre-industrial era by 1.0°C
has caused significant changes in weather extremes
• Restraining warming to 1.5oC as compared to 2.0oC would significantly
reduce impact of climate change on many ecosystem and
livelihood
• Current national pledges (NDC) are not enough to limit
warming to 1.5°C
• Avoiding warming of more than 1.5°C would require carbon
dioxide emissions to decline substantially before 2030: Deep
emissions cuts in all sectors, a range of technologies, behavioural changes,
and increase investment in low carbon options
• Most of climate actions can be synergized with sustainable development
goals